ZB 03 13 (1 Min) 12.13.12

12/13/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0801 HI time / 1301 EST)
Previous: 2.82/2.8
Actual: 2.92/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’05 (0801)
1st Peak @ 147’24 – 0802 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 148’05 – 0812 (11 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 147’22 – 0828 (27 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 147’31 – 0843 (42 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose more than expected from the previous auction, after the FED move to buy $45B in long term bonds from the FOMC meeting the previous day. This caused a selloff of 13 ticks. With JOBB you would fill short at 147’31 with 3 ticks of slippage. The spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, but bottomed 1 tick above the 200 SMA. I had my exit on the 200 expecting it to eclipse that level, when it did not fill and reversed back to my fill point, I moved the exit up to the 100 SMA and exited with 3 ticks. Still you could have closed out with up to 6 ticks on the initial spike. It corrected back to the origin, then fell for a 2nd peak of 15 ticks 27 min after the auction. After that it reversed for 9 ticks then traded sideways.