10/29/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.81/2.5
Actual: 1.89/2.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 156’01 (1301)
1st Peak @ 155’27 – 1303:27 (2 min)
6 ticks
Reversal to 156’06 – 1328 (27 min)
11 ticks
Expected Fill: 155’31 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 155’28 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 155’27 (4 ticks) – move up 1 tick
Notes: None.
11/25/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1131 EST)
Previous: 1.89/2.5
Actual: 2.01/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 155’04 (1131)
1st Peak @ 155’13 – 1131:37 (1 min)
9 ticks
Reversal to 155’06 – 1132:05 (1 min)
6 ticks
Final Peak @ 155’20 – 1212 (41 min)
16 ticks
Reversal to 155’12 – 1239 (68 min)
12 ticks
Expected Fill: 155’06 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 155’10 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 155’10 (4 ticks)
Notes: Early release due to Thanksgiving holiday routine.
1/28/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.16/2.3
Actual: 1.76/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 159’19 (1301)
1st Peak @ 160’00 – 1303:01 (2 min)
13 ticks
Reversal to 159’26 – 1304 (3 min)
6 ticks
2nd Peak @ 160’09 – 1325 (24 min)
22 ticks
Reversal to 160’00 – 1333 (32 min)
9 ticks
Expected Fill: 159’23 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 159’31 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 159’28 (on the OOD and 100 SMA / just above the 200 SMA)
Notes: Large quick spike saw some slippage but allowed a good amount of profit as it did not want to reverse. After the 1st peak, it found support with the 100/200 SMAs and climbed for another 9 ticks in 21 min.
1/30/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.39/2.5
Actual: 2.19/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’01 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’05 – 1303 (2 min)
4 ticks
Reversal to 133’02 – 1305 (4 min)
3 ticks
2nd Peak @ 133’07 – 1308 (7 min)
6 ticks
Reversal to 133’01 – 1330 (30 min)
6 ticks
Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.19 fell back a bit after a high of 2.39 in December now that tapering has started. This caused a typical slow but safe move that would have yielded 1-2 ticks initially as it eclipsed the PP Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 133’03 with no slippage late in the :02 bar then given you 1-2 ticks of profit on the :03 bar. After a small reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in the next 5 min. If you decide to wait for a 2nd peak or have a secondary profit target, an exit at 133’06 or 07 would have been available. After that it reversed for 6 ticks back to the origin 23 min later, crossing the 50 SMA and reaching the 200 SMA.
10/30/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.06/2.5
Actual: 1.87/2.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 135’17 (1301)
1st Peak @ 135’20 – 1303 (2 min)
3 ticks
Reversal to 135’16 – 1315 (14 min)
4 ticks
Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.87 fell back to levels from the mid-summer now that the delay of tapering of QE3 is much more likely. With the FED meeting results being posted in the next hour, this report saw little reaction. This caused a slow dull long spike of 3 ticks that peaked on the :03 bar. With JOBB, you would have seen the :02 bar expire without a move, so cancel the order. There was little movement after that as it never ventured more than 3 ticks on either side of the origin before the FED meeting results were released.
09/26/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.22/2.4
Actual: 2.06/2.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’03 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’29 – 1302 (1 min)
6 ticks
Reversal to 133’07 – 1341 (40 min)
10 ticks
Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.06 fell quite a bit from last month. This caused a quick short spike of 6 ticks that bottomed 1 tick above the LOD within 5 sec, then hovered for about 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’01 with no slippage, then seen it hover with about 3 ticks of profit. With the tight trading range before the report and the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot just below the lowest point of the spike, look to exit on the :03 or :04 bars with 2-3 ticks. After the spike it retreated up to the SMAs and eventually broke through, reaching the S1 Mid Pivot 40 min later for 10 ticks.
08/29/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.03/2.5
Actual: 2.22/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’10 (1301)
1st Peak @ 131’20 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks
Reversal to 131’16 – 1307 (6 min)
4 ticks
2nd Peak @ 131’27 – 1337 (36 min)
17 ticks
Reversal to 131’18 – 1427 (86 min)
9 ticks
Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.22 rose quite a bit from last month. This caused a slow developing, but average size 9 tick long spike in 5 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 131’12 with no slippage, then seen it hover within 1 tick of the fill point for about 2 min. You could have exited within 1 tick of break even or if patient, exited with 5+ ticks on the :06 bar. After last month saw a dull reaction and the previous 2 months has larger quick reactions, this is a bit of an anomaly with the slow movement, but quite safe. After a quick 4 tick reversal, the 2nd peak achieved another 7 ticks in 30 min, as it rode the 13/20 SMAs upward and eclipsed the R2 Pivot. Then it gave back 9 ticks in the next 50 min, back to the 100 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot.
07/25/2013 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.93/2.6
Actual: 2.03/2.5
DULL REACTION
Started @ 134’03 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’05 – 1302 (1 min)
2 ticks
Reversal to 134’01 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks
2nd Peak @ 134’08 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks
Reversal to 133’30 – 1315 (14 min)
10 ticks
Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.46 is the lowest in years, indicating high demand for the bonds with the dollar and equities unattractive. There was no impulse by 13:01:45, so we should have cancelled the order. If not, with JOBB, you would have filled long at 134’05, then seen it back off and eventually fall to the default 4 tick stop loss. A narrower stop would have reduced the loss, while a 5 tick stop loss and patience would have allowed an exit at or above break even 2 min later. After the last 2 months have caused a healthy reaction on this report, this was a bit of a disappointment. We will continue to watch this report in August.
