1/10/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.92/2.5
Actual: 3.07/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 144’26 (0801)
1st Peak @ 145’07 – 0802 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 144’31 – 1312 (11 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 145’08 – 1318 (17 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 144’25 – 1400 (59 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose more than expected from the previous auction, after the FED move to buy $45B in long term bonds from the FOMC meeting a month ago. This caused a rally of 13 ticks. With JOBB you would fill long at 144’30 with 1 tick of slippage. The spike only crossed the S1 Pivot near the top of the peak. I had my exit on the S1 Pivot at 145’05 and filled with 7 ticks. After peaking, it reversed to the 20 SMA for 8 ticks, then garnered a 2nd peak of 1 more tick. The final reversal fell back to the origin at the S2 Pivot.

12/13/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0801 HI time / 1301 EST)
Previous: 2.82/2.8
Actual: 2.92/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’05 (0801)
1st Peak @ 147’24 – 0802 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 148’05 – 0812 (11 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 147’22 – 0828 (27 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 147’31 – 0843 (42 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose more than expected from the previous auction, after the FED move to buy $45B in long term bonds from the FOMC meeting the previous day. This caused a selloff of 13 ticks. With JOBB you would fill short at 147’31 with 3 ticks of slippage. The spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, but bottomed 1 tick above the 200 SMA. I had my exit on the 200 expecting it to eclipse that level, when it did not fill and reversed back to my fill point, I moved the exit up to the 100 SMA and exited with 3 ticks. Still you could have closed out with up to 6 ticks on the initial spike. It corrected back to the origin, then fell for a 2nd peak of 15 ticks 27 min after the auction. After that it reversed for 9 ticks then traded sideways.

11/8/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0801 HI time / 1301 EST)
Previous: 2.90/2.5
Actual: 2.82/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 150’00 (0801)
1st Peak @ 150’27 – 0802 (1 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 151’13 – 0831 (30 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 151’00 – 0903 (62 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield dropped more than expected from the previous auction, signifying much higher demand for the bonds in lieu of the election results. With JOBB you would fill long at 150’03 with no slippage. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs at the origin, the PP / R1 Pivots, and HOD at varying points up the spike. Since it blew through all of these potential areas of resistance and finished the bar 1 tick off of the max, stay on the ride until the end and close out with 20 or more ticks. After the 1st peak, it ratcheted higher for the next 30 min, crossing the R2 Pivot and peaking at 151’13 for 45 ticks total. The reversal reclaimed 13 ticks in about half an hour back to the R2 Pivot. By far the best auction trade yet!

10/11/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.90/2.7
Actual: 2.90/2.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’21 (0701)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0706 (5 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 149’08 – 0743 (42 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield was the same as the previous auction, continuing the rise off of the low in July. The bid to cover ratio was slightly lower meaning less bids were made than last month. With JOBB you would fill short at 148’17 just below the 100 SMA. I set my buy limit just below the 200 SMA and PP Pivot at 148’11, which filled as it bottomed out at 148’09 on the :06 bar. With the small deviation from the previous result, I did not expect much of a short move. Then the reversal yielded a strong 31 ticks in 37 min, rebounding through all 3 major SMAs and peaking at the R1 Pivot.

09/13/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0531 HI time / 1131 EDT)
Previous: 2.83/2.4
Actual: 2.90/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’00 (0531)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0533 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 148’01 – 0534 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 0630 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose minimally from the previous auction, continuing the rise off of the low in July. With less demand for the bonds, the yield rose, causing the ZB to spike long from sitting on the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would fill long at 148’03. With the HOD established about 90 min earlier at 148’09, keep an eye on it as it approaches that threshold. As the :02 bar bounced off of 148’08 and the :03 bar garnered 1 more tick to touch the HOD, exit around 148’08 if possible for about 5 ticks. The resistance at 148’09 is strong as it caused the reversal nearly back to the 100 SMA. Then it oscillated between 148’01 and 148’06 for 30 min before trending higher. It hit a 2nd peak at 148’14 at the R2 Pivot right before the FED announced open ended QE3 which caused a nosedive. I did not list the final reversal due to the large move and lack of association to the auction.