1/14/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.85/2.8
Actual: 2.43/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 149’31 (1301)
1st Peak @ 149’20 – 1301:48 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 149’29 – 1305 (4 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 149’19 – 1311 (10 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 150’00 – 1346 (45 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell sharply from last month. This caused the bonds to fall 11 ticks at 1:48 then back off after hitting the R2 Pivot. It started just above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs and reach the R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 149’25 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it briefly show a few ticks of profit before backing off to hover around the fill point. A profit target of 5 ticks or less would have filled immediately, otherwise look to exit at breakeven. After the peak, it reversed 9 ticks in 3 min to the 100 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick to the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 35 min to cross the 100 SMA. After that it trended lower into the session close.

2/11/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.93/2.6
Actual: 2.00/2.6
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 146’16 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’24 – 1301:37 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’18 – 1302:38 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 147’02 – 1321 (20 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 146’28 – 1325 (24 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 146’11 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 146’08 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 146’21 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 146’24 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop long for 8 ticks to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and collapes. This would have filled the inner short entry, but just missed the outer short entry. Then it fell to hover for over a minute at 146’19 to allow an exit with about 2 ticks. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 18 min after crossing the PP Pivot and the OOD, but falling just short of the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 6 ticks in 4 min back to the OOD. It continued to oscillate for the next hour or so around the PP Pivot.

3/12/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.56/2.3
Actual: 2.68/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 160’03 (1301)
1st Peak @ 159’14 – 1302:30 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 159’21 – 1307 (6 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 159’00 – 1321 (20 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 160’00 – 1438 (97 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield continued to rebound. This caused the bonds to fall for a huge spike of 14 ticks at 1:35 to the R1 Mid Pivot, then continue to trickle lower for another 7 ticks to nearly reach the OOD in the next minute. With JOBB you would have filled short at 159’28 with about 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and hover between 159’16 and 17 to allow 11-12 ticks to be captured. After the spike, it reversed 7 ticks to reach the R1 Mid Pivot in the next 4 min before stepping lower to a final peak of 14 more ticks to the PP Pivot / LOD in 14 min. Then it reclaimed all the lost ground as it reversed 32 ticks in 77 min after crossing the 200 SMA.

3/11/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.00/2.6
Actual: 2.14/2.7
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 158’22 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 158’30 – 1304:28 (4 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 158’25 – 1307:50 (7 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 159’23 – 1332 (31 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 159’17 – 1350 (49 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 158’18 (match the low from 1251) / 158’14 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 158’26 or 27 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’29 or 30 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio ticked up. This caused the ZB to pop long for 4 ticks to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and all 3 Major SMAs. If you had placed your short entry at 158’26 it would have barely filled, otherwise it would have missed. Then if filled it would have allowed 1 tick of profit to be taken where it hovered just after the fill for over 30 sec. After that it peaked at 8 ticks after 4 min before reversing 5 ticks in 3 min to the 13 SMA. Then it climbed for a final peak of 25 more ticks in 24 min after crossing the R2 Pivot. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 18 min to the R2 Pivot and traded sideways.

4/8/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.14/2.7
Actual: 1.93/2.6
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 163’26 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 163’31 – 1303:14 (3 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 163’26 – 1308:18 (8 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 164’22 – 1357 (56 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 163’21 (on the LOD) / 163’18 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 163’30 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 164’02 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio tapered slightly. This caused the ZB to pop long for 5 ticks to cross the S1 Pivot and 100 SMA. If you had placed your short entry at 163’30 it would have filled early in the :03 bar, otherwise if placed higher it would have missed. Then if filled it would have taken a patient approach as it yielded 3 ticks in about 3.5 min where it hovered just below the S1 Pivot. Then it hit the 100 SMA and rebounded into a long developing final peak of 23 more ticks in 48 min. Then the FOMC minutes released 3 min later.