ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.24.2015

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Mar 192015
 

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2_24_2015

2/24/2015 FED Chairman Yellen Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 145’00
1st Peak @ 145’05 – 1000:08 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 144’18 – 1003 (3 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 145’05 – 1008 (8 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 144’30 – 1011 (11 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 145’17 – 1018 (18 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 144’30 – 1029 (29 min)
19 ticks

Double Top @ 145’18 – 1049 (49 min)
20 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Yellen testified on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. She testified that they will look at several indicators to evaluate the status of inflation and employment. This caused a roller coaster reaction for the bonds that rose 5 ticks in 8 sec before reversing 19 ticks in the next 2 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 145’03 with no slippage then seen your stop taken for a 5 tick loss a few seconds later. After the reversal it pulled back 19 ticks to match the 1st peak in 5 min before reversing 7 ticks in 3 min to the SMAs. Then it ascended for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in 7 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 19 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA. Then it climbed for a double top in 20 min and traded sideways to end the roller coaster.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.11.2014

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Feb 282014
 

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2_11_2014

2/11/2014 FED Chairman Yellen Testimony (0830 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’07
1st Peak @ 132’25 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 133’05 – 0850 (20 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’22 – 0947 (77 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 132’30 – 1053 (143 min)
8 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Yellen testified on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. The headline was that the FED was going to stay the course and continue on the pace of tapering QE3 to the tune of $10B per meeting. This was not a certainty after several weak reports had been released the week prior (ISM and NFP to name a few). This caused the bonds to weaken and spike short for 14 ticks on 2 bars, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the S2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 133’03 with 1 tick of slippage on the :31 bar. Then it fell for another 10 ticks slowly as it briefly stalled on the S1 Pivot, but deliberately without much of a pullback. You could have captured about 9 ticks with ease. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 20 min, hitting the S1 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, eclipsing the S2 Pivot about an hour later. The final reversal reclaimed 8 ticks as it reached the S2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.22.2013

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Jun 022013
 

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5_22_2013

5/22/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.24
1st Peak @ 95.48 – 1002 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reverse to 95.28 – 1004 (4 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.99 – 1016 (16 min)
75 ticks

Reverse to 94.37 – 1056 (56 min)
162 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy before the Joint Economic Committee. Chmn Bernanke started out defended the QE3 policy and its effect on the economy, causing a rally on the CL for the first 15 min. Then he testified that several FED members were anxious about the scope and open ended nature of QE3, with scaling back commencing as early as the summer. This caused the dollar to rally and oil to reverse course. Trading with JOBB was discouraged in this case with Existing Home Sales breaking at the same time. After seeing the long reaction in the first 2 bars, look to buy on a retracement at about 95.30 at the S2 Mid Pivot, then keep an eye on the 13/20 SMAs, MACD, and the DX. It would be wise to exit after the :11 bar had 4 bars in a row with a sustained move, or just above the 200 SMA. After the 2nd peak eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot, it tumbled for 162 ticks in about 40 min as the tone turned hawkish.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.27.2013

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May 092013
 

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2_27_2013

2/27/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 92.50
1st Peak @ 92.58 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reverse to 92.45 – 1004 (4 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.88 – 1013 (13 min)
38 ticks

Reverse to 92.70 – 1020 (20 min)
18 ticks

Notes:  FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (day 2).   Do not trade day 2 with JOBB.  In this case, most of the air was let out of the balloon on the previous day testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and nothing surprising transpired in the Q & A.  This was seen as an initial long dull reaction, then a slightly larger 2nd peak of 38 ticks in 13 min to cross the 200 SMA.  Then we saw a reversal of 18 ticks before it chopped sideways approaching the oil inventory report at 10:30.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.26.2013

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May 092013
 

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2_26_2013

2/26/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 93.44 (1003)
1st Peak @ 93.07 – 1008 (5 min)
37 ticks

Final Peak @ 92.17 – 1144 (101 min)
127 ticks

Reverse to 92.75 – 1241 (158 min)
58 ticks

Notes:   FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee.   Chmn Bernanke defended the FED’s policy of open ended asset purchases stating that the risk of inflation is well contained and the benefit far outweighs any risks to the economy.   The markets responded positively with the dollar rallying causing the CL to fall.  The long reaction from 10:00 to 10:03 was due to a strong Consumer Confidence report.  If that report had not been there, the market would have traded sideways until 10:03.  If you noticed the dollar rally and shorted the CL, the first exit point would have been the 200 SMA at 10:34.  The reversal claimed 58 ticks in about 1 hr, eclipsing the 200 SMA.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

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Jul 182012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

7/18/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 89.67
Peak @ 89.46 – 0401 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reverse to 89.79 – 0406 (6 min)
35 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (day 2). Do not trade day 2 with JOBB. In this case, most of the air was let out of the balloon on the previous day testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and nothing surprising transpired in the Q & A. The span of :00 to :07 bars was a replay of what happened the day before on a much smaller scale. After the :08 bar, it traded sideways staying afloat on the 50 SMA until the oil inventory report took over to influence the market.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.17.12

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Jul 172012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 06.17.12

7/17/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 89.21
1st Peak @ 88.92 – 0401 (1 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 87.71 – 0443 (43 min)
150 ticks

Reverse to 89.76 – 0731 (211 min)
205 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee. Chmn Bernanke initially reported that the FED would not interject any new stimulus, the economy is in a poor state of health, and nothing the FED could do would help the situation. As the markets had already priced in some stimulus action from the FED, the dollar rallied strongly causing the oil to crash. Then at :45 min after the report, during the Q & A session, Bernanke stated that stimulus was not off the table and may be implemented in the near future. This caused the Hopium to return, reversing the trend of the first 45 min to cause the dollar to crasch and oil to rally for the next 2 hrs and 45 min. With JOBB, the first bar spike of 29 ticks would have easily generated a profit. It crossed the 200 SMA, but everything else was above the price action. If you stayed in, the next bar was unable to close above the 200 SMA, then you could exit at either the :22 area where it crossed the 20 or at the :46 bar after the sustained drop then support encountered at the 87.80 level. The reversal claimed over 200 ticks in almost 3 hrs, encountering moderate resistance at each SMA, then eventually climbing above the R1 Pivot to peak just below 90.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.07.12

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Jun 072012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.01.12

6/7/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE, then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 86.69
1st Peak @ 86.85 / Retrace to 86.37 – 0401 (1 min)
16 ticks / -32 ticks

Final Peak @ 84.57 – 0531 (91 min)
212 ticks

Reverse to 85.36 – 0551 (111 min)
79 ticks (2x top)

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee. Indecisive at first would have gotten you in long then retraced short and hit the stop loss. When Chaiman Bernanke made it clear that QE3 would not be inserted, the market reacted bearishly, selling off methodically for the next 90 min. The movement was not clear initially, however when it penetrated the 200 SMA, then came back up to bounce off of it as resistance, that would be a good place to enter a short trade on the :28 or :29 bar. The double bottom at 85.31 at about 1 hr after the testimony started would be a good exit for nearly 100 ticks.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.01.12

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Mar 012012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.01.12

3/1/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN / REVERSAL
*ISM Manufacturing report released at the same time caused the reaction up to 0530, after 0530 was due to FED Testimony.
Started @ 107.86 (0530)
1st Peak @ 106.70 – 0610 (40 min)
116 ticks

Reverse Peak 1 @ 107.70 – 0634 (64 min)
100 ticks (3x top)

Reverse Peak 2 @ 108.31 – 0726 (116 min)
161 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Financial Services Committee. Caused a downward FAN for 116 ticks over 40 min, fighting through all major SMAs with ease. It then reversed for 161 ticks in the next 76 min while it was reined in by the 200 SMA for about 40 min before finally breaking long. Not an opportunity for JOBB, this is a watch and see what is going to happen with little predictability situation.

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