FOMC Meeting Minutes | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 5.20.2015

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May 212015

5/20/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 152’28 (shift up 2 ticks to 152’30)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’08 – 1400:10 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 152’25 – 1401:30 (2 min)
)))-15 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 152’10 – 1405 (5 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 152’27 – 1408 (8 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 152’13 – 1411 (11 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 153’10 – 1430 (30 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 152’23 – 1435 (35 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 152’26 (in between the 100 / 200 SMAs) / 152’21 (just below the 200 SMA)
Short entries – 153’03 (just above the PP Pivot) / 153’07 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was taking the possibility of a June rate hike off the table. This causes a perfect setup for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 10 tick spike long in 10 sec that reached the HOD and collapsed. This would have filled both short tiers for an average position of about 153’05. Then it fell 15 ticks in about 80 sec to the 100 SMA to allow up to about 22 total ticks to be captured. Then it stalled for a min before falling for 15 more ticks. After that it pulled back 17 ticks in 3 min to the 50 SMA before reversing 14 ticks in 3 min. Then it climbed for a double top in 19 min before reversing 13 ticks in 5 min to the 200 SMA. After that it settled down and trickled lower into the close.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.8.2015

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Aug 102015

7/8/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 153’20
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’25 – 1400:36 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 153’18 – 1402:27 (3 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 153’31 – 1409 (9 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 153’23 – 1414 (14 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 154’11 – 1448 (48 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 153’29 – 1514 (74 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 153’15 (match the low at 1350) / 153’11 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 153’25 (just above the 100 /50 SMAs) / 153’29 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was continuing to evaluate when to execute the rate hike with September being the most likely course of action. This causes a perfect setup for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 5 tick spike long in 36 sec that crossed the 100 /50 SMAs and collapsed. This would have filled the inner short entry perfectly then allowed up to 7 ticks to be captured in 2 min just below the 200 SMA. After that it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot in 6 min before reversing 8 ticks in 5 min to the PP Pivot and 100/50 SMAs. Then it stepped higher for a final peak of 12 more ticks in 34 min after crossing the R1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 26 min to the 100 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.19.2015

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Sep 142015

8/19/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 158’15
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 158’10 – 1400:39 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 158’16 – 1402:43 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 157’30 – 1422 (22 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 159’06 – 1523 (83 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 158’10 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 158’06 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 158’20 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 158’24 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was continuing to evaluate when to execute the rate hike with September being the most likely course of action. This caused a near miss for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 5 tick spike short in 39 sec that crossed the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. This would have touched the inner long entry but not filled (unless you manually moved it up 1 tick. If you were able to get a manual entry, you would have been able to capture up to 4 ticks on the reversal as it climbed 6 ticks in 2 min to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in 19 min as it crossed the PP Pivot before reversing 40 ticks in 1 hour as it crossed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016

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Jan 132016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_6_2016

1/6/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 155’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))No move – 1401 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 155’08 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 155’04 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 155’16 (just above the 100 / 50 SMAs) / 155’20 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Surprising dull move after the first rate hike in several years.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014

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Jan 112014

1/8/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 128’20
1st Peak @ 128’14 – 1401 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 128’21 – 1422 (22 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 128’27 – 1507 (67 min)
13 ticks

Notes: After the FED finally commenced scaling back QE3 last month by $10B a month, they announced their intention to continue scaling back at a modest pace while monitoring the employment and inflation picture. This caused the bonds to fall only 6 ticks, as the minutes were unsurprising. With JOBB you would have filled short at 128’17 with 1 tick of slippage. Since it was a tame move and had to contend with all 3 major SMAs, move the stop to -2 ticks and set a target at 2 ticks. The 2 tick target would have filled later in the :01 bar. After the peak, it continued to oscillate around the SMAs within a span of only 5 ticks before it eventually reversed for 7 ticks, just above the origin on the :22 bar. After that it achieved an extended reversal of 6 more ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot 45 min later.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.20.2013

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Dec 262013

11/20/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’24
1st Peak @ 131’14 – 1401 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 131’26 – 1404 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 131’09 – 1412 (12 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 131’21 – 1420 (20 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 130’28 – 1526 (86 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 131’04 – 1601 (121 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Same song, different dance…the FED kept things vague and noncommittal announcing the intention to scale back bond buying in “the coming months” with no timeline or other specifics. This caused the bonds to fall 10 ticks, as it was already engaged in a longer term downtrend. With JOBB you would have filled short at 131’21 or 20 with 1 tick of slippage. As is typical with this report it likes to test a spike then rebound a few sec later. In this case it fell 10 ticks and hovered there for about 10 sec midway through the :31 bar. Then it reversed and gave it up as the bar expired. Be sure to exit before the reversal takes over in the latter half of the bar. After the :31 bar, it continued reversing to hit the 100 SMA, before stepping lower to a final peak of 28 ticks nearly an hour and a half after the news. Then it traded sideways into the close.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.9.2013

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Dec 262013

10/9/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’30
1st Peak @ 132’25 – 1401 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’09 – 1442 (42 min)
16 ticks

Notes: As the FED kept things vague and noncommittal announcing the intention to scale back bond buying with no timeline or other specifics, the markets reacted with a sigh. This caused the bonds to fall only 5 ticks, as it was already trading near the session low. With JOBB you would have filled short at 132’27 or 28 with no slippage. After observing the minimal movement and the apparent interaction with support barriers, look to exit at breakeven or 1 tick of profit. Fortunately, it allowed for an exit for 3 min, before it reversed 16 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot in the next 40 min. After that it fell again to trade near the S1 Pivot until the market close.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 8.21.2013

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Oct 082013

8/21/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’12
1st Peak @ 130’27 – 1401 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 131’02 – 1402 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 130’13 – 1406 (6 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 131’01 – 1413 (13 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Very little of substance was offered by the FED to decipher the stance on tapering the bond buying. Still the lack of anything actionable against it caused the bonds to plummet. This caused the bonds to fall 17 ticks, then chop between 131’09 and 130’27 for the majority of the :01 bar. It eventually settled down to drift lower and reach a 2nd peak of 31 ticks at the S3 Mid Pivot after 6 min. With JOBB you would have filled short at 131’09 with no slippage. After observing the hovering up to 15 sec at 130’30, that would have been an ideal place to exit for about 10 ticks before the volatile swings happened. If you did not exit, there would have been plenty of opportunity later for an exit between breakeven and up to 27 ticks. After the 2nd peak it reversed for 20 ticks back to the 200 SMA, then fell again, tested the 200 SMA one more time and drifted lower into the session close.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.10.2013

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Jul 202013

7/10/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’02
1st Peak @ 132’26 – 1401 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 133’18 – 1402 (2 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’21 – 1459 (59 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 132’30 – 1525 (85 min)
9 ticks

Notes: About half of FED members felt that the bond buying program could be phased out by the end of 2013. Still, assurances were given that QE3 would not be halted in 2 months as initially feared. This caused the bonds to fall 8 ticks, hover for about 8 sec near the LOD, then reverse 24 ticks in the next 2 min to eclipse the PP Pivot and OOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at 133’00 with no slippage, then a 5 tick profit target would have filled. I had a 6 tick profit target with a breakeven setting of 4 ticks, so I was stopped with 0 ticks. The reaction is usually quick and shortly sustained, so a trap trade approach may be worthy too. After the strong reversal, it chopped up and down and eventually fell for a 2nd peak of 13 ticks nearly an hour after the report, reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks in 26 min, crossing the 50 SMA.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.19.2013

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Jul 082013

6/19/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 139’04 (1400)
Premature/Fake Spike @ 139’14 – 1401 (1 min)
10 ticks

1st Peak @ 138’22 – 1401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 137’21 – 1455 (55 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 138’04 – 1503 (63 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions, but reiterated previous comments about tapering off the bond buying later in the year. This caused an initial long move that hit the PP Pivot and quickly reversed and turned into a downward fan as the demand for bonds was seen to be waning in the future with QE3 being threatened to scale back. JOBB is not recommended for this report, but a short entry would have been advisable on the long retracement on the 1403 bar. Use the 50 SMA as the trail stop and/or look to exit after a sizeable 10+ tick move in a few min. It hit a climactic peak at 1455 just above the S3 Pivot for 49 ticks, then reversed for 15 ticks in 8 min. Since the final peak was after the pit close and late in the trading day, additional trades would be discouraged, but it kept testing the LOD and then trended lower as volume and price action dried up.

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