2/20/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’22
1st Peak @ 141’13 – 1401 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 141’18 – 1402 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 141’07 – 1403 (3 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 141’24 – 1413 (13 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Several FED members said the central bank should be ready to vary the pace of their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases amid a debate over the risks and benefits of further QE. The officials emphasized that the committee should be prepared to vary the pace of asset purchases, either in response to changes in the economic outlook or as its evaluation of the efficacy and costs of such purchases evolved. This caused the bonds to fall for 9 ticks on the 1st peak, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and the OOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at 141’19 with no slippage, then look to exit at 141’15 with 4 ticks at the OOD. After retreating in an unsustainable manner for 5 ticks on the :02 bar, it fell for a 2nd peak of 15 ticks at the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed quickly for 17 ticks in the next 10 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the PP Pivot. Then it fell again to attempt a lower peak, but could go no lower than the S1 Pivot. It popped back up and traded sideways near the 200 SMA.

11/14/2012 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’30
1st Peak @ 149’04 – 1401 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 148’31 – 1402 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 149’09 – 1411 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 149’01 – 1429 (29 min)
8 ticks

Notes: A number of Federal Reserve officials said the central bank may need to expand its monthly purchases of bonds next year after the expiration of Operation Twist, according to minutes of their last meeting. This caused the bonds to rally for 6 ticks on the 1st peak, crossing all 3 major SMAs as the market had just dipped below before the report. It hit the OOD and 1 tick shy of the PP Pivot and then fell to reverse 5 ticks on the :02 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at 149’01 with no slippage, then look to exit at 149’03 or 04 with for 2-3 ticks. It rallied for a 2nd peak of 11 ticks 9 min later to the HOD, then it reversed for 8 ticks. After that it popped back up and oscillated higher.

8/22/2012 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 145’09
1st Peak @ 145’18 – 1401 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 145’04 – 1414 (14 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 145’25 – 1425 (25 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 145’16 – 1437 (37 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Many Federal Reserve policy makers said additional stimulus would probably be needed soon unless the economy shows signs of a durable pickup, causing the dollar to weaken. This caused the bonds to rally for 9 ticks on the 1st peak, but penetrating the HOD was too much to sustain as it left 5 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at 145’13 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit with 3-4 ticks as it hovered before falling. After the peak, it reversed for 14 ticks in 13 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the R2 Pivot. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 16 ticks 11 min later, eclipsing the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed for 9 ticks, then continued to trend slightly higher for the next few hours until the market closed.