FED Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 07-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

Beige Book Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/4/2014 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.67
1st Peak @ 102.61 – 1401 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 102.78 – 1413 (13 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.42 – 1508 (68 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 102.53 – 1516 (76 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of mid March to early May. The DX had minimal movement. This caused the CL to fall for only 6 ticks on 1 bar before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 102.62 with no slippage, then hovered for a breakeven exit for 20 sec. After that it reversed slowly for 17 ticks in the next 12 min. Then it fell 25 ticks in the next hour, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 11 ticks in 8 min back to the 50 SMA.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.18.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jun 192014

6/18/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 135’17
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 135’05 – 1400:09 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 135’24 – 1400:38 (1 min)
)))19 ticks

)))Pullback to 135’12 – 1401:45 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 135’20 – 1402:13 (3 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Pullback to 135’06 – 1406 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 136’06 – 1433 (33 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 135’09 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 135’02 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 135’24 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 136’00 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $35B a month, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action while also stating that it could be a while before rate hikes commence. This caused a short move of 12 ticks to fall just 2 ticks short of the S1 Mid Pivot and quick retreat of 19 ticks to cross the R1 Mid Pivot as is typical. Your inner long entry would have filled, then allowed for an exit around 134’22 with 13 ticks as it hovered for aver 20 sec as the :01 bar was expiring. After that it continued to execute several large swings and eventually broke out long and trended slightly higher heading into the close.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.9.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 202014

7/9/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 136’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’09 – 1400:27 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’15 – 1402:10 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Pullback to 136’09 – 1405 (5 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 136’31 – 1435 (35 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’07 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / LOD) / 136’03 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 136’17 (on the OOD / 200 SMA) / 136’21 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes offered very little surprise to essentially say that the tapering of QE3 would continue on pace. This caused a muted reaction as the bonds only fell 3 ticks, then reversed about 2 min later. The behavior was typical, just smaller movement. This would have missed your inner long entry by 2 ticks, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it fell for a double bottom to the S1 Mid Pivot, then reversed for 22 ticks in the next 30 min as it eclipsed the R1 Pivot and extended the HOD.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.30.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Aug 182014

7/30/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 137’18
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 137’12 – 1400:41 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 137’23 – 1401:50 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 137’30 – 1412 (12 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 137’14 – 1438 (38 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 137’11 (just below the LOD) / 137’03 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 137’25 (just above the 200 SMA) / 138’01 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $25B a month, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action. This caused a short move of 6 ticks in 41 sec to touch the LOD then reverse for 11 ticks in the next 70 sec. This would have just missed your inner long entry, so cancel the order. Any follow on trades are discouraged as there is very little predictable. It continued to reverse for another 7 ticks in the next 10 min to the S3 Mid Pivot, then pulled back for 16 ticks in the next 26 min.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.20.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Aug 312014

8/20/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 139’26
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 139’18 – 1400:08 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 139’26 – 1400:54 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Pullback to 139’18 – 1401:49 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 139’23 – 1403:00 (3 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 139’11 – 1423 (23 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 139’23 – 1500 (60 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 139’21 (just below the 50 SMA) / 139’17 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 139’31 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 140’03 (just above the HOD)

Notes: With tapering down to $25B and perceived 2 more steps to end QE3, the minutes revealed that the FED was closer to consensus on an exit strategy and may end stimulus sooner than expected. This caused a large short reaction of 8 ticks that started just above the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to reach the LOD, then quickly reversed back to the origin. This would have filled your inner long entry at 139’21, then fallen another 3 ticks to fall 1 tick short of the outer tier. Then it reversed 8 ticks back to the origin in the next 46 sec. It hovered between 139’25 and 139’26 to allow an exit with 4-5 ticks. Be sure to exit quickly on FED trades after an opportunity when it reverses near the origin. It fell for a double bottom 1 min later, then reversed 5 ticks to the 200 SMA. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 7 more ticks, crossing the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 37 min as it crossed the 200 SMA.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.17.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Oct 082014

9/17/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 136’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’23 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’14 – 1400:02 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Pullback to 136’22 – 1400:11 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’02 – 1401:19 (2 min)
)))-20 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 135’23 – 1404 (4 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 136’10 – 1423 (23 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 135’18 – 1541 (101 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’04 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 135’28 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 136’20 (just above the HOD/R1 Pivot) / 136’28 (above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $15B a month, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action. They also pledged to maintain interest rates low for a considerable time after the QE ends. This caused a long move of 11 ticks instantly followed by a retreat of 9 ticks, then a pullback after 9 seconds that collapsed nicely after that. This would have filled you inner short entry with 3 ticks to spare, then worked out well as it fell into the :02 bar allowing about 17 ticks to be captured where it hovered. Though more ticks could have been captured by waiting, we strongly advise getting out quickly after the initial reversal and first sign of hovering as all following action is unpredictable. It continued to fall another 11 ticks in the next 2 min to reach the S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back 19 ticks in 19 min back to the 200 SMA / PP Pivot. After that it reversed to the S2 Mid Pivot in the next 80 min as it headed into the session close.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.29.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Nov 162014

10/29/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 141’01
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 140’25 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’00 – 1400:02 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 140’16 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Reversal to 140’26 – 1401:30 (2 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Pullback to 140’17 – 1402:08 (3 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 141’05 – 1405 (5 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 140’25 (just above the LOD) / 140’17 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 141’08 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 141’16 (above the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD)

Notes: The FED chose to finish tapering QE3 by the last $15B as expected, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action. They also pledged to maintain interest rates low for a considerable time after the QE ends but the statement was deemed more hawkish than expected. This caused an immediate stab short of 8 ticks and snap back. This would have filled your inner long entry and allowed a quick exit with 6-7 ticks. If you were not fast enough, the secondary fall would have filled the outer tier, then eventually reversed back to the SMAs and S2 Pivot allowing a combined total of 18 ticks to be captured after 4 min. It reversed all the way to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. After that it chopped sideways between the original LOD location and S2 Mid Pivot before settling into a long trend into the session close.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.19.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Dec 272014

11/19/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 141’07 (shift to 141’09)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 141’14 – 1400:06 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’05 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 141’22 – 1418 (18 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 141’02 – 1446 (46 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 141’04 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 141’00 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 141’13 (on the S1 Pivot) / 141’17 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: With tapering complete, the minutes revealed that the FED was still accommodative to dovish policy by keeping interest rates low and maintain patience to raise them. This caused a quick long spike of 5 ticks to the S1 Pivot in 6 sec that quickly retreated and fell 9 ticks in 23 sec to the S2 Pivot. The initial anchor point of 141’07 would have shifted 2 ticks higher as the :00 bar was expiring, so bias your orders slightly higher. This would have filled the inner short tier at 141’13 then fallen and hovered at 141’06 to allow 7 ticks to be captured easily. After that it ascended for a final peak of 8 more ticks after 17 more min to the PP Pivot. Then it reversed to cross the S2 Pivot and nearly reach the LOD in the next 28 min.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.7.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jan 142015

1/7/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 147’27 (shift to 147’28)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 148’02 – 1400:07 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 147’24 – 1400:19 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 148’17 – 1444 (44 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 148’01 – 1509 (69 min)
16 ticks

Continued Reversal to 147’26 – 1638 (158 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 147’22 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 147’19 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 148’01 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 148’04 (below the PP Pivot)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was still accommodative to dovish policy while taking a tolerant approach to risk assets. This caused a quick long spike of 6 ticks in 7 sec as it broke outside of the tightly clustered SMAs, then a retreat in the next 12 sec of 10 ticks that matched the low around 1336 just above the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled the inner short tier at 148’01 then fallen and hovered in between 147’24 and 147’26 to allow 7-9 ticks to be captured easily. After that it ascended for a final peak of 16 more ticks after 43 more min to the OOD. Then it reversed 16 ticks to the 100 SMA in 25 min followed by another 7 ticks in 89 min just before the session close.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.28.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Feb 162015

1/28/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NOT FILL
Anchor Point @ 150’06
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 150’03 – 1400:14 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 150’08 – 1400:28 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Pullback to 149’31 – 1402:01 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 150’21 – 1408 (8 min)
22 ticks

Continued Reversal to 151’18 – 1518 (68 min)
51 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 149’28 (just below the PP Pivot) / 149’19 (just above the OOD)
Short entries – 150’11 (just above the HOD) / 150’18 (above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: In the aftermath of the end of QE3, the FED chose to take a patient approach to hawkish moves and wait to let the economy continue to recover. This caused an initial dull reaction that fell 3 ticks, then reversed 5 ticks followed by a pullback of 9 ticks. In all it was slow developing and only strayed 7 ticks from the origin after 2 min. Cancel the order after 20 sec with no fill to be safe. After the short move on the :03 bar, it reversed 22 ticks in 5 min to cross the R1 Pivot, then continued to step higher for another 29 ticks in the next hour to cross the R2 Pivot.

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