FED Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.18.2015

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 172015

2/18/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 144’08 (shift to 147’28)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 144’22 – 1400:15 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’15 – 1400:56 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 145’07 – 1437 (37 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 144’17 – 1548 (108 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 144’03 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 144’00 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 144’13 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 144’17 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was still accommodative to dovish policy while taking a tolerant approach to risk assets and in no hurry to evaluate economic growth as a precursor for a rate hike. This caused a quick long spike of 14 ticks in 15 sec as it climbed to eclipse the PP Pivot and extend the HOD. This would have filled both short entries then the stop to the tick at 144’22 for a 14 tick loss. This was unfortunate as it reversed 7 ticks in the next few sec to allow an exit with 2-4 ticks loss had the stop been 1 tick larger. Still the trend of the small moves and reversals in the season of tapering easing is now over. It continued to rally after the reversal for another 17 ticks to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot in 36 min before reversing 22 ticks in 71 min to the 200 SMA.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.24.2015

FED Testimony Comments Off

Mar 192015

2/24/2015 FED Chairman Yellen Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 145’00
1st Peak @ 145’05 – 1000:08 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 144’18 – 1003 (3 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 145’05 – 1008 (8 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 144’30 – 1011 (11 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 145’17 – 1018 (18 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 144’30 – 1029 (29 min)
19 ticks

Double Top @ 145’18 – 1049 (49 min)
20 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Yellen testified on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. She testified that they will look at several indicators to evaluate the status of inflation and employment. This caused a roller coaster reaction for the bonds that rose 5 ticks in 8 sec before reversing 19 ticks in the next 2 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 145’03 with no slippage then seen your stop taken for a 5 tick loss a few seconds later. After the reversal it pulled back 19 ticks to match the 1st peak in 5 min before reversing 7 ticks in 3 min to the SMAs. Then it ascended for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in 7 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 19 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA. Then it climbed for a double top in 20 min and traded sideways to end the roller coaster.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.18.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Apr 032015

3/18/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (UPWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 161’14
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’24 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Whipsaw between 161’10 – 161’24 – 1400:09 (1 min)

)))2nd Peak @ 162’00 – 1400:11 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’09 – 1402:08 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 163’30 – 1514 (74 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 163’17 – 1531 (91 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 161’07 (just below the PP Pivot) / 160’29 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 161’22 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 161’30 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: As intel was trying to be gathered on when the FED might raise interest rates, the FED removed the word “patient” from its statement, but would not become impatient to tighten fiscal policy. This caused initial instability followed by a large rally on the bonds. This would have filled the inner short entry with about 2 ticks to spare initially then chopped between breakeven and 12 ticks of profit before ascending to hit the outer short tier with 2 ticks to spare after 11 sec. Then it would have fallen in the next 2 min for a total of 23 ticks but look to exit where it first hovered just below the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot at about 161’15 for 22 total ticks. After the reversal it rallied into an upward fan for a total of 62 more ticks in 71 min after eclipsing the R4 Pivot. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 17 min and traded sideways.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.29.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Apr 302015

4/29/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 159’19
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 159’06 – 1400:30 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’15 – 1400:52 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 159’07 – 1401:04 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’30 – 1403:25 (4 min)
)))23 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 160’05 – 1407 (7 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 159’18 – 1410 (10 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 159’12 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 159’04 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 159’27 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 160’03 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The FED left open the possibility of a rate hike in June, but stated it was unlikely to be until the end of the summer. This caused the expected instability with a 13 tick short spike in 30 sec followed by the reversal. This would have filled the inner short entry right at 19 sec just before the time recommended to cancel. Then you would have seen it continue to fall and cross the 100 /200 SMAs but come up about 3 ticks short of the outer tier. Then it reversed 9 ticks and hovered about 1-2 ticks in the green briefly to allow a quick exit. You could have gotten out there or waited until after it fell again. Upon seeing it pull back to the same low and start to reverse, it would have been prudent to move the outer long entry up to get a fill around the 200 SMA. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 3 min and another 7 ticks in 3 more min to allow plenty of profit to be captured. Also notice that the reversal distance from the origin was roughly the same as the original spike heading short. After the reversal, it pulled back 19 ticks in only 3 min to cross the 50 SMA. After that it chopped sideways and the moves became less discernible.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 5.20.2015

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 212015

5/20/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 152’28 (shift up 2 ticks to 152’30)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’08 – 1400:10 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 152’25 – 1401:30 (2 min)
)))-15 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 152’10 – 1405 (5 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 152’27 – 1408 (8 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 152’13 – 1411 (11 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 153’10 – 1430 (30 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 152’23 – 1435 (35 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 152’26 (in between the 100 / 200 SMAs) / 152’21 (just below the 200 SMA)
Short entries – 153’03 (just above the PP Pivot) / 153’07 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was taking the possibility of a June rate hike off the table. This causes a perfect setup for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 10 tick spike long in 10 sec that reached the HOD and collapsed. This would have filled both short tiers for an average position of about 153’05. Then it fell 15 ticks in about 80 sec to the 100 SMA to allow up to about 22 total ticks to be captured. Then it stalled for a min before falling for 15 more ticks. After that it pulled back 17 ticks in 3 min to the 50 SMA before reversing 14 ticks in 3 min. Then it climbed for a double top in 19 min before reversing 13 ticks in 5 min to the 200 SMA. After that it settled down and trickled lower into the close.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.17.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jul 052015

6/17/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 149’29
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 149’18 – 1400:23 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 150’18 – 1401:10 (2 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Pullback to 149’27 – 1402:21 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Reversal to 151’02 – 1415 (15 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 150’03 – 1425 (25 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 151’05 – 1500 (60 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 150’16 – 1514 (74 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 149’22 (just below the LOD) / 149’13 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 150’05 (just below the 200 SMA) / 150’13 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED deferred the option of a rate hike to September, but stated the economy was improving since the winter quarter. This caused the expected instability with an 11 tick short spike in 23 sec followed by the reversal. This would have filled the inner short entry at 8 sec. Then you would have seen it continue to fall another 4 ticks before reversing strongly for 32 ticks in about 45 sec to the S2 Mid Pivot. This would have allowed up to 26 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 23 ticks in about 70 sec to the 50 SMA before reversing 39 ticks in 12 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it continued to swing as it fell 31 ticks in 10 min to the 3 major SMAs before reversing 34 ticks to nearly reach the PP Pivot in 35 min. Then it pulled back 21 ticks in 14 min after crossing the 50 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.8.2015

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Aug 102015

7/8/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 153’20
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’25 – 1400:36 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 153’18 – 1402:27 (3 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 153’31 – 1409 (9 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 153’23 – 1414 (14 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 154’11 – 1448 (48 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 153’29 – 1514 (74 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 153’15 (match the low at 1350) / 153’11 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 153’25 (just above the 100 /50 SMAs) / 153’29 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was continuing to evaluate when to execute the rate hike with September being the most likely course of action. This causes a perfect setup for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 5 tick spike long in 36 sec that crossed the 100 /50 SMAs and collapsed. This would have filled the inner short entry perfectly then allowed up to 7 ticks to be captured in 2 min just below the 200 SMA. After that it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot in 6 min before reversing 8 ticks in 5 min to the PP Pivot and 100/50 SMAs. Then it stepped higher for a final peak of 12 more ticks in 34 min after crossing the R1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 26 min to the 100 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.29.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Aug 302015

7/29/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 154’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 154’12 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’07 – 1400:51 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Pullback to 154’14 – 1402:12 (3 min)
)))7 ticks
————
Reversal to 153’28 – 1405 (5 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 154’22 – 1433 (33 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 154’03 – 1527 (87 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 153’28 (just below the LOD) / 153’20 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 154’10 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 154’19 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED deferred the option of a rate hike to September or December, but stated the economy was continuing to improve since the winter quarter. This caused the expected instability with a 9 tick long spike in 29 sec followed by a 5 tick small reversal. This would have filled the inner short entry at 22 sec. Then you would have seen it continue to bounce around the fill point for about 2 min when it climbed to nearly reach the S1 Pivot before reversing 18 ticks to the LOD. The reversal took longer than normal to materialize, but patience for the true reversal would have paid off allowing up to 14 ticks to be captured after about 5 min. After that it hovered between the LOD and S2 Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 28 min after eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 54 min back to the origin.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.19.2015

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/19/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 158’15
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 158’10 – 1400:39 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 158’16 – 1402:43 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 157’30 – 1422 (22 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 159’06 – 1523 (83 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 158’10 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 158’06 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 158’20 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 158’24 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was continuing to evaluate when to execute the rate hike with September being the most likely course of action. This caused a near miss for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 5 tick spike short in 39 sec that crossed the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. This would have touched the inner long entry but not filled (unless you manually moved it up 1 tick. If you were able to get a manual entry, you would have been able to capture up to 4 ticks on the reversal as it climbed 6 ticks in 2 min to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in 19 min as it crossed the PP Pivot before reversing 40 ticks in 1 hour as it crossed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9.17.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 052016

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9_17_2015 ZB 12-15 (Second) 9_17_2015

9/17/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 152’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 152’27 – 1400:11 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 152’05 – 1401:18 (2 min)
)))-22 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 153’10 – 1407 (7 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 152’23 – 1408 (8 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 153’15 – 1440 (40 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 152’29 – 1501 (61 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 151’31 (in between the OOD / LOD)
Short entry – 152’26 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 152’26 (Short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 152’05 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 152’10 (in between the 50 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: FOMC decided to wait to raise rates again. The short entry would have filled if 152’26 or lower. Otherwise, notice the hovering above the R2 Mid Pivot for 15 sec and manually move the order lower 2-3 ticks for a fill.

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