7/10/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’02
1st Peak @ 132’26 – 1401 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 133’18 – 1402 (2 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’21 – 1459 (59 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 132’30 – 1525 (85 min)
9 ticks

Notes: About half of FED members felt that the bond buying program could be phased out by the end of 2013. Still, assurances were given that QE3 would not be halted in 2 months as initially feared. This caused the bonds to fall 8 ticks, hover for about 8 sec near the LOD, then reverse 24 ticks in the next 2 min to eclipse the PP Pivot and OOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at 133’00 with no slippage, then a 5 tick profit target would have filled. I had a 6 tick profit target with a breakeven setting of 4 ticks, so I was stopped with 0 ticks. The reaction is usually quick and shortly sustained, so a trap trade approach may be worthy too. After the strong reversal, it chopped up and down and eventually fell for a 2nd peak of 13 ticks nearly an hour after the report, reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks in 26 min, crossing the 50 SMA.

6/19/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 139’04 (1400)
Premature/Fake Spike @ 139’14 – 1401 (1 min)
10 ticks

1st Peak @ 138’22 – 1401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 137’21 – 1455 (55 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 138’04 – 1503 (63 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions, but reiterated previous comments about tapering off the bond buying later in the year. This caused an initial long move that hit the PP Pivot and quickly reversed and turned into a downward fan as the demand for bonds was seen to be waning in the future with QE3 being threatened to scale back. JOBB is not recommended for this report, but a short entry would have been advisable on the long retracement on the 1403 bar. Use the 50 SMA as the trail stop and/or look to exit after a sizeable 10+ tick move in a few min. It hit a climactic peak at 1455 just above the S3 Pivot for 49 ticks, then reversed for 15 ticks in 8 min. Since the final peak was after the pit close and late in the trading day, additional trades would be discouraged, but it kept testing the LOD and then trended lower as volume and price action dried up.

5/22/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 143’00
1st Peak @ 143’10 – 1401 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 142’25 – 1401 (1 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Several FED members were willing to slow down the pace of the purchases as early as the June meeting if the data continued to improve. A growing number of Fed officials want to see the slowdown rate of bond purchases, but it is likely that process will take a few months at least. This caused the bonds to rally for 10 ticks on the 1st peak, crossing the S1 Pivot and the 200 SMA to peak at 20 sec into the :01 bar, then reverse 17 ticks in the next 10 sec before returning to near the origin as the bar expired. With JOBB you would have filled long at 143’03 with no slippage, then look to exit at 143’07 on the 200 SMA with 4 ticks, before it reversed. After the large swing of the :01 bar, it traded between the S2 Mid Pivot and the S1 Pivot / 200 SMA for 20 min and failed to achieve a 2nd peak. Then it drifted slightly lower to trade between the S2 Pivot and S2 Mid Pivot.

1/3/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 143’24
1st Peak @ 143’17 – 1402 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 143’00 – 1409 (9 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 143’16 – 1429 (29 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The FOMC showed rising concern about the policy of buying bonds to stimulate growth. The minutes showed several of the central bank’s officials were leaning toward slowing or stopping purchases well before the end of 2013. This caused the bonds to fall for 7 ticks on the 1st peak, crossing the S2 Pivot and extending the LOD, then stagnating briefly before a much bigger 2nd peak. With JOBB you would have filled short at 143’22 with no slippage, then look to exit at 143’19 with 3 ticks. It fell for a sizable 2nd peak of 24 ticks 7 min later, eclipsing the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed to reclaim 16 ticks up to the 50 SMA, before falling for a double bottom. After that it continued to bounce off of the LOD for lower peaks for the rest of the trading session.

10/4/2012 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 146’10 (1402)
1st Peak @ 146’05 – 1403 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 146’00 – 1407 (7 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 146’07 – 1429 (29 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Policy makers at the Federal Reserve were nearly united last month in their belief that the economic recovery needed additional help and that the central bank had the ability to provide it. In addition, all members but one agreed that the outlook for economic activity and inflation called for additional monetary accommodation as they were particularly concerned about the high unemployment rate. This caused the bonds to fall for 5 ticks on the 1st peak as the LOD and S2 Pivot provided strong support. With JOBB you would have filled short at 146’07 with no slippage, then look to exit at 146’05 at the S2 Pivot with 2 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 4 ticks to the 13 SMA, then fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed for 7 ticks back to the 50 SMA before trending slightly lower in the next 2 hrs.