Building Permits / Housing Starts

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.16.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

May 052014

4/16/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.00M
Actual: 0.99M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 1.01M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 0.97M
Actual: 0.95M
Previous revision: +0.01M to 0.92M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009777
1st Peak @ 0.009786 – 0831 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009782 – 0832 (2 min)
4 ticks

Pullback to 0.009787 – 0835 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009783 – 0841 (11 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report was modestly disappointing overall with the BLDG Permits slightly falling short and the Housing starts slightly falling short of the forecast. This caused a 9 tick long move that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and S2 Pivot in a gradual rise that took 17 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.009780 with no slippage, then seen it hover between 82 and 85 for most of the bar. Look to exit with 3-4 ticks. After the peak, it basically traded between 83 and 87 until the 0915 news took it lower.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.16.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

May 272014

5/16/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.01M
Actual: 1.08M
Previous revision: +0.01M to 1.00M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 0.98M
Actual: 1.07M
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009860
1st Peak @ 0.009849 – 0831 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009860 – 0832 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009837 – 0841 (11 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.009853 – 0901 (31 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly impressive overall with the BLDG Permits and the Housing starts greatly exceeding the forecast. This caused a 11 tick short move that started on the 50 SMA then fell to cross the 200 SMA and nearly reach the OOD in about 2 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009855 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall to hover between 52 and 49 for the first 8 sec for an ideal quick exit of about 4-5 ticks. You would have had another opportunity to exit with about 3 ticks later in the bar or be patient and wait for the 2nd peak with the strong reaction. After the reversal on the :32 bar returned to the origin, it fell for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD in 8 min. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 20 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.17.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/17/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.04M
Actual: 1.02M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.02M
Actual: 1.02M
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009402
1st Peak @ 0.009393 – 0830:30 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009396 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009383 – 0835 (5 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.009402 – 0843 (13 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 0.009385 – 0855 (25 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009397 – 0900 (30 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report was nearly matching overall with the BLDG Permits falling short by 0.02M and the Housing starts matched the forecast. This caused a 9 tick short move that started just above the 20 SMA then fell to cross the 100 SMA and reach the 200 SMA in 30 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009399 with no slippage on the tame move, then seen it fall to hover between the 100/200 SMAs for an ideal exit of about 4-5 ticks. After a small reversal of only 3 ticks, it fell for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 4 min to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the LOD. Then it reversed 19 ticks back to the origin in 8 min before pulling back 17 ticks in 12 min. After that it reversed 12 ticks to the 50/100 SMAs and chopped sideways.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.19.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/19/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.04M
Actual: 1.08M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.03M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.03M
Actual: 1.01M
Previous revision: +0.02 to 1.04M
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.008506
1st Peak @ 0.008509 – 0831:47 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008499 – 0835 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008512 – 0840 (10 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report was conflicting with the BLDG Permits exceeding the forecast by 0.04M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.02M. This caused a dull reaction that took nearly 2 min to climb 3 ticks. With JOBB, you should have cancelled the order with no fill after 10 sec. After the small peak, it reversed 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the LOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 5 min. After that it trickled lower as the report faded away.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.21.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/21/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EST)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.06M
Actual: 1.03M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.05M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.04M
Actual: 1.09M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.04M
DULL FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 0.008527
1st Peak @ 0.008521 – 0830:04 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008531 – 0830:35 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008517 – 0840 (10 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008535 – 0900 (30 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report was conflicting with the BLDG Permits falling short of the forecast by 0.03M and the Housing starts exceeding the forecast by 0.05M. This caused a short move of 6 ticks to the 50 SMA / R3 Pivot in 4 sec that backed off to hover. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 0.008524 with no slippage. It backed off and hovered about 1-2 ticks in the red so look to exit there with the conflicting data. After 3 min, it fell again for a minor 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to the 100 SMA. Then it reversed 18 ticks in 20 min to the HOD.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.17.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Apr 042015

3/17/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.07M
Actual: 1.09M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.06M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.05M
Actual: 0.90M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.08M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008260
1st Peak @ 0.008267 – 0830:11 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008261 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008257 – 0859 (29 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly conflicting with the BLDG Permits narrowly exceeding the forecast by 0.02M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.15M. This caused a long move of 7 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and crossed the R1 Pivot while extending the HOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008264 with 1 tick of slippage. It peaked, then hovered within 2 ticks of the top for almost 30 sec to allow an exit with about 2 ticks. Then it reversed 6 ticks in 1 min and another 4 ticks in the next 27 min to the R1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.16.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/16/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 284K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008398
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008409 – 0830:26 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008395 – 0834:26 (5 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008406 – 0841 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008397 – 0844 (14 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008389 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008378 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008407 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008418 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast with 10k offset while the concurrent BLDG Permits / Housing Starts also moderately disappointed. This caused a quick long spike of 10 ticks in 1 sec that crossed the 100 SMA then eked out 1 more tick in 25 sec. This would have filled the inner short entry at 0.008407 with 1 tick to spare, then hovered near the top for about 90 sec before reversing 14 ticks in 3 min after crossing the 20 SMA. This would have allowed up to about 10 ticks to be captured with patience. Then it pulled back 11 ticks in 6 min before reversing 9 ticks in 3 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.19.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

May 242015

5/19/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.06M
Actual: 1.14M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.02M
Actual: 1.14M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 0.94M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008322
1st Peak @ 0.008311 – 0830:01 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008318 – 0830:38 (1 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008303 – 0845 (15 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008309 – 0918 (48 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly bullish with the BLDG Permits exceeding the forecast by 0.08M and the Housing starts exceeding the forecast by 0.12M. This caused a short move of 11 ticks that started on the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S2 Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008317 with 2 ticks of slippage. It peaked, then backed off, then reclaimed the peak toward the end of the bar. Due to the strong biased results, be patient for a later drop and even 2nd peak. It hovered around 0.008312 as the :31 bar was expiring to allow 5 ticks to be captured. After that it continued to fall for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks after crossing the S3 Mid Pivot in 14 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 33 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

6J 09-15 ( 1 Min) 6.16.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/16/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.11M
Actual: 1.28M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.10M
Actual: 1.04M
Previous revision: +0.03 to 1.17M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008110
1st Peak @ 0.008121 – 0830:02 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008111 – 0833 (3 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.008117 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008110 – 0837 (7 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly bullish but also conflicting with the BLDG Permit exceeding the forecast by 0.17M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.06M with a large upward revision. This caused a long move of 11 ticks that started just above the 50 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD. Then it receded and hovered. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008115 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it backed off quickly to hover at Breakeven to allow an exit with 0-2 ticks. After that it reversed a total of 10 ticks in 2 min to the OOD before pulling back 6 ticks about 1 min later to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 4 min to the 50 SMA and traded sideways.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.18.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Sep 122015

8/18/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.23M
Actual: 1.12M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.19M
Actual: 1.21M
Previous revision: +0.03 to 1.20M
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008052
1st Peak @ 0.008047 – 0830:38 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.008050 – 0833 (3 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008036 – 0902 (32 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008043 – 0917 (47 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report was mixed with the BLDG Permit falling short of the forecast by 0.11M and the Housing starts slightly exceeding the forecast by 0.02M with a moderate upward revision. This caused a short move of 5 ticks that started just above the SMAs and fell to cross the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008049 with no slippage. Then it trickled lower for 2 more ticks to allow an exit with 1-2 ticks of profit. After a small reversal of 3 ticks in 2 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 29 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 15 min to the PP Pivot / 50 SMA.

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