6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10.20.2015

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Jan 162016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 10_20_2015

10/20/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.16M
Actual: 1.10M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 1.16M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.14M
Actual: 1.21M
Previous revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008358
1st Peak @ 0.008355 – 0830:11 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008359 – 0830:56 (1 min)
4 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008355 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008356 – 1 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008350 (5 ticks)

Notes: Another dull move. If you were fortunate, you would have cancelled the order after 10 sec with no fill, otherwise look to exit near breakeven with a 1 tick loss.

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11.18.2015

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Jan 162016
 

6J 12-15 (1 Min) 11_18_2015

11/18/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EST)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.15M
Actual: 1.15M
Previous revision: +0.01M to 1.11M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.16M
Actual: 1.06M
Previous revision: -0.02M to 1.19M
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008102
1st Peak @ 0.008105 – 0830:01 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008098 – 0831:28 (2 min)
7 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008105 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008104 – 1 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008108 (just above the PP Pivot / 200 SMA)

Notes: Another dull move. Look to exit in the first 26 sec as it hovered between 1-2 ticks in the red.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.17.2014

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Feb 082014
 

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1_17_2014

1/17/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EST)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.01M
Actual: 0.99M
Previous revision: +0.01M to 1.02M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 0.99M
Actual: 1.00M
Previous revision: +0.02M to 1.11M
DULL REACTION (FILL)
Started @ 0.009583
1st Peak @ 0.009579 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.009591 – 0836 (6 min)
12 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009599 – 0905 (35 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report was matching overall with the BLDG Permits slightly falling short and the Housing starts slightly exceeding the forecast. This caused a muted 4 tick short move that eclipsed the 100/200 SMAs, then pulled back. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009580 with no slippage, then seen it get stuck between breakeven and -1 tick for most of the bar. Due to the matching report and strong support barrier, look to exit with 1 tick loss. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 6 min and another 8 ticks 30 min later, as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell back to the 200 and PP Pivot 15 min later.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.17.12

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Apr 172012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.16.12

4/17/2012 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.71M
Actual:0.75M
Previous revision: none
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 103.97
1st Peak @ 103.78 – 0233 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 104.00 – 0238 (8 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with no previous revision. Finally BLDG PMTs report with a breakout. The spike fell until it encountered the 50 SMA then bounced back long for a few more ticks on the reversal. Still it was odd that the reaction was short on a positive report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.16.12

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Feb 162012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.16.12

2/16/2012 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.68M
Actual: 0.68M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 0.64M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.02
1st Peak @ 101.18 – 0331 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.35 – 0342/0346/0347 (12/16/17 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report matched forecast with a small previous revision. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (very positive at only 348K) and PPI (negative at .1%). I would not advise trading this report as 3 medium movers were breaking at the same time. In this case the positive Unemployment report drove the action. First peak at the 200 SMA; 2nd peak at the S1.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.19.12

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Jan 192012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.19.12

1/19/2012 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.68M
Actual: 0.68M
Previous revision: none
INDECISIVE REACTION
Started @ 101.81
Peak@ 101.94 / Retrace to 101.72 – 0231 (1 min)

Notes: Report matched forecast and no previous revision. Indecisive reaction with 18 tick swing. Probably inevitable to avoid stop loss filling on this one.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.20.11

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Dec 202011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.20.11

12/20/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.63M
Actual:0.68M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 0.64M
INDECISIVE REACTION
Started @ 95.83
Peak@ 95.90 / Retrace to 95.72 – 0231 (1 min)

Notes: Report was strong and positive, but trade volume is too low due to Christmas holiday. Cancel the trade if not filled in 8-10 sec. If you got in the trade, then go for minimal gain or loss.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.17.11

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Nov 172011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.17.11

11/17/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual:0.65M
Previous revision: none
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.26
1st Peak @ 101.55 – 0331 (1 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.70 – 0339 (9 min)
44 ticks

Retrace to 101.32 – 0343 (13 min)

Notes: Strong report 0.05M above forecast. Used the 50 SMA as support during retracement between 1st and 3nd peaks. I would get out in the 101.62 range 0336 – 0339 since it hit resistance in that area.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.19.11

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Oct 192011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.19.11

10/19/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.61M
Actual: 0.59M
Previous revision: +0.01M to .63M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.90
Peak@ 89.12 – 0231 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak@ 89.17 – 0233 (3 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in close enough to the forecast and previous report was revised upward but reaction was reaction was opposite of expected. The 200 and 100 SMAs drove the retracement and 2nd peak. Price moved upward after 0233 until 0250, but this is after the short term reaction of the report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.20.11

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Sep 202011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.20.11

9/20/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual: 0.62M
No previous revision
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.16
Peak@ 87.04 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak@ 86.90 – 0237 (7 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report came in close enough to the forecast but reaction was reaction was opposite of expected. I would ride the heat in this case around 2-3 min after the report when a level of resistance was set at 87.17 and it eventually fell.

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