11/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.6%
Core Actual: 1.5%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 9.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.01
1st Peak @ 88.20 – 0332 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reverse to 87.79 – 0341 (11 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were mildly negative. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots having just bounced long off of the 50 SMA as support, and was trading in a relatively narrow range with the LOD and HOD only 43 ticks apart. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 88.09 with 1 tick of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with 5-10 ticks on the :32 bar as it approached the HOD. The reversal fought through all 3 SMAs to eclipse the 200 by about 10 ticks, then traded sideways straddling the 200 for about 20 min.

7/26/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -1.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 1.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 89.64
1st Peak @ 89.89 – 0231 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.44 – 0238 (8 min)
80 ticks

Reverse to 89.84 – 0305 (35 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed, falling short on the core reading with upward revisions to the previous reports while exceeding expectations on the regular reading. Unemployment claims also broke at the same time with a strongly positive reading. The aggregate of the news was bullish, causing the initial spike and 2nd peak. The 1st peak ran into the R1 Pivot and retraced on the :32 bar. The negative core reading and the R1 Pivot caused the red bar. Then the market was able to rally again for a 2nd peak of 80 ticks by the :38 bar. After a double top, the reversal was able to achieve 60 ticks on the :05 bar, 35 min after the report. With JOBB, you could have made 12 ticks on the initial spike. When the :32 and :33 bars did not drop below the 100 SMA, that is a great setup for a long entry for the 2nd peak. Exit after the long green bar at :36 before you get a correction.

5/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.1%
Core Actual:-0.6%
Previous revision:+0.3% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual:0.2%
Previous Revision:+0.5% to -3.7%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 90.62
Peak @ 90.40 – 0234 (4 min)
22 ticks

Retrace to 90.74 – 0238 (8 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report came in fairly negative overall with the current reports disappointing while the previous revisions were mildly positive. Report was released at the same time as the weekly unemployment claims, which came in matching at 370K. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots, but was engaged in a slow downtrend over the previous 90 min, so the oversold market was reluctant to go short much on the bearish news. With JOBB you would have filled short and had an opportunity to close out with about 10 ticks on the :32 bar. The reversal fought through all 3 SMAs to eclipse the 100, before pulling back.

2/28/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual:-3.2%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: -0.8%
Regular Actual:-4.0%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 3.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 108.48
1st Peak @ 108.03 – 0333 (3 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 107.62 – 0347 (17 min)
86 ticks

Retrace to 108.27 – 0423 (53 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report came in extremely negative as the economic websites reported the worst reading in 3 years. The core report and regular report disappointed causing a much larger than normal drop. I did not anticipate the 2nd peak and closed at 108.05 on the 0333 candle as it bounced off of the S1 line there. From 0340 – 0347 had a drastic secondary drop of 60 ticks to achieve a 2nd peak of 86 ticks. Then reversed 65 ticks over 36 minutes for a total influence period of nearly an hour. Remember to be patient if trading the reversal. *Drop at 0401 was due to the CL open.

12/23/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:0.3%
Previous revision:0.8% to 1.5%
Regular Forecast: 2.2%
Regular Actual:3.8%
Previous Revision:+0.7% to 0.0%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 100.11
Peak @ 99.97 / retrace to 100.17 – 0331 (1 min)
6 / -14 ticks

Retrace to 100.28 – 0338 (8 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed overall with the core report disappointing while the regular report and previous revisions were solidly positive. Report was released on the Friday before Christmas, with extremely low volume. I would not trade this report due to the Christmas effect, and the erratic nature of the 0331 and 0335 candles illustrates this.