CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

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Nov 272012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

11/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.6%
Core Actual: 1.5%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 9.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.01
1st Peak @ 88.20 – 0332 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reverse to 87.79 – 0341 (11 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were mildly negative. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots having just bounced long off of the 50 SMA as support, and was trading in a relatively narrow range with the LOD and HOD only 43 ticks apart. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 88.09 with 1 tick of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with 5-10 ticks on the :32 bar as it approached the HOD. The reversal fought through all 3 SMAs to eclipse the 200 by about 10 ticks, then traded sideways straddling the 200 for about 20 min.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.24.12

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Aug 242012
 


CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.24.12

8/24/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -1.1% to -2.2%
Regular Forecast: 2.6%
Regular Actual: 4.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 96.07
Peak @ 96.01 (1 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report came in as a mixed bag. The more influential core reading came in worse than expected with a downward revision to the previous report. This was offset by a strong regular reading exceeding the forecast by a greater margin that the core disappointed. This all resulted in traders seeing it as a wash and having no impetus to buy or sell. With JOBB you would never have seen the market get closer than 1 tick to your bracket with a 7 tick buffer. Following the guidance, cancel the order when it did not execute in 10-15 sec. You would have been safe in this case anyway until the :34 bar finally broke out of the tight trading range short. No SMAs influenced the trading, so the balance of information must have truly straddled the line of positive/negative.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.26.12

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Jul 262012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.26.12

7/26/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -1.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 1.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 89.64
1st Peak @ 89.89 – 0231 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.44 – 0238 (8 min)
80 ticks

Reverse to 89.84 – 0305 (35 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed, falling short on the core reading with upward revisions to the previous reports while exceeding expectations on the regular reading. Unemployment claims also broke at the same time with a strongly positive reading. The aggregate of the news was bullish, causing the initial spike and 2nd peak. The 1st peak ran into the R1 Pivot and retraced on the :32 bar. The negative core reading and the R1 Pivot caused the red bar. Then the market was able to rally again for a 2nd peak of 80 ticks by the :38 bar. After a double top, the reversal was able to achieve 60 ticks on the :05 bar, 35 min after the report. With JOBB, you could have made 12 ticks on the initial spike. When the :32 and :33 bars did not drop below the 100 SMA, that is a great setup for a long entry for the 2nd peak. Exit after the long green bar at :36 before you get a correction.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.27.12

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Jun 272012
 


CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.27.12

6/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.9%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -0.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 79.58
1st Peak @ 79.76 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 80.06 – 0240 (10 min)
48 ticks

Reverse to 79.70 – 0251 (21 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed, falling short on the core reading with downward revisions to the previous reports while exceeding expectations on the regular reading. The reaction surprisingly ran with the strong regular reading, going long decisively. With the market in a long trend prior to the report, the momentum continued without having to fight through any SMAs. The 2nd peak had to fight through the R1 Pivot, then the reversal came back to the 50 SMA.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12

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May 242012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12

5/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.1%
Core Actual:-0.6%
Previous revision:+0.3% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual:0.2%
Previous Revision:+0.5% to -3.7%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 90.62
Peak @ 90.40 – 0234 (4 min)
22 ticks

Retrace to 90.74 – 0238 (8 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report came in fairly negative overall with the current reports disappointing while the previous revisions were mildly positive. Report was released at the same time as the weekly unemployment claims, which came in matching at 370K. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots, but was engaged in a slow downtrend over the previous 90 min, so the oversold market was reluctant to go short much on the bearish news. With JOBB you would have filled short and had an opportunity to close out with about 10 ticks on the :32 bar. The reversal fought through all 3 SMAs to eclipse the 100, before pulling back.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12

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Mar 282012
 


CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12

03/28/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.6%
Core Actual: 1.6%
Previous revision:+0.2% to -3.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual:2.2%
Previous Revision:+0.4% to -3.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 106.13
Peak @ 106.02 / retrace to 106.15 – 0331 (1 min)
-11 / 2 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast with the more influential core reading, while the regular reading fell short, and there were small upward revisions to the previous reports. This prevented the market from executing a spike. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 106.05 with slippage and observed the market retreat to bob between 10 ticks in the red and the breakeven point. I setup a buy limit at the breakeven point and my order filled about halfway through the :01 candle. You could also manually close when you see the price close to breakeven, but you are not likely to secure the best exit that way. Notice the low point of the :01 candle is a triple bottom with the :28 and :15 candles before it. If you waited this one out, you would have gotten lucky and seen a small profit on the :03 candle as it briefly dipped through the S2 line.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.28.12

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Feb 282012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.28.12

2/28/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual:-3.2%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: -0.8%
Regular Actual:-4.0%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 3.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 108.48
1st Peak @ 108.03 – 0333 (3 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 107.62 – 0347 (17 min)
86 ticks

Retrace to 108.27 – 0423 (53 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report came in extremely negative as the economic websites reported the worst reading in 3 years. The core report and regular report disappointed causing a much larger than normal drop. I did not anticipate the 2nd peak and closed at 108.05 on the 0333 candle as it bounced off of the S1 line there. From 0340 – 0347 had a drastic secondary drop of 60 ticks to achieve a 2nd peak of 86 ticks. Then reversed 65 ticks over 36 minutes for a total influence period of nearly an hour. Remember to be patient if trading the reversal. *Drop at 0401 was due to the CL open.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.26.12

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Jan 262012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.26.12

01/26/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.9%
Core Actual:2.1%
Previous revision:+0.2% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 2.1%
Regular Actual:3.0%
Previous Revision:+0.5% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 100.71
Peak @ 100.77 / retrace to 100.63 – 0331 (1 min)
6 / -8 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with moderate upward revisions to the previous reports. Report was released at the same time as weekly unemployment which came in at a disappointing 377K. I would not trade this report as the unemployment claims caused the 0331 candle to be volatile and indecisive. The reaction was restrained overall as the low point was a double bottom at 100.63 and the high point was a double top at 100.86, only a 23 tick swing.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.23.11

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Dec 232011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.23.11

12/23/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:0.3%
Previous revision:0.8% to 1.5%
Regular Forecast: 2.2%
Regular Actual:3.8%
Previous Revision:+0.7% to 0.0%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 100.11
Peak @ 99.97 / retrace to 100.17 – 0331 (1 min)
6 / -14 ticks

Retrace to 100.28 – 0338 (8 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed overall with the core report disappointing while the regular report and previous revisions were solidly positive. Report was released on the Friday before Christmas, with extremely low volume. I would not trade this report due to the Christmas effect, and the erratic nature of the 0331 and 0335 candles illustrates this.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.23.11

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Nov 232011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.23.11

11/23/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual:0.7%
Previous revision:-1.1% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: -1.1%
Regular Actual:-0.7%
Previous Revision:-0.7% to -1.5%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 96.68
Peak @ 97.08 – 0336 (6 min)
40 ticks

Retrace to 96.47 – 0354 (24 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with moderate downward revisions to the previous reports. Report was released at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (Weds due to Thanksgiving holiday) which came in at 393K as expected. I would not trade this report as the unemployment claims caused the 0331 candle to be volatile and indecisive, but I would watch the 0332 candle and /or trade the reversal.