CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.26.11

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Oct 262011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.26.11

10/26/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:1.7%
Previous revision:-0.3% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.7%
Regular Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: none
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 93.55
Peak @ 93.86 – 0231 (1 min)
31 ticks (lost it all on retrace)

Retrace to 92.73 – 0246 (9 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with a small revisions to the previous report causing a small upward spike up to the 100 / 50 / 200 SMAs then retracing before the candle closed out.. This report was also encompassed inside of a downward FAN – the initial spike was part of a gap close /reversal, but being news driven, promptly fell again. Then the drop was a continuation of the FAN. The report spike was a blip in the overall chart movement, albeit a 31 tick blip.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.28.11

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Sep 282011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.28.11

9/28/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual:-0.1%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 4.1%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 84.15
Peak @ 84.41 – 0232 (2 min)
26 ticks

Retrace to 83.80 – 0239 (9 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast overall with no or minimal revisions to the previous report causing a small upward spike with a larger follow on reversal. This report was also encompassed inside of a downward FAN – the initial spike was part of a reversal up to the 50 SMA, then the drop was a continuation of the FAN. In this case the report did not have much shock value, so it only rose 26 ticks, then fell 61. I would watch it interact with the 50 SMA when it had trouble rising much higher, close out at or just above it. With the downward slope, if it has a secondary peak, it will be lower.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.24.11

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Aug 242011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.24.11

8/24/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.3%
Core Actual:0.7%
Previous revision:+0.5% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: 2.1%
Regular Actual:4.0%
Previous Revision:+0.8% to -1.3%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 86.17
Peak @ 86.97 – 0235 (5 min)
80 ticks (2x top)

Retrace to 86.61 – 0240 (10 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Strong report came in well above forecast with large correction to previous report causing a healthy spike and minimal follow on reversal. Look for the peak after 4-5 min. If you miss it, wait for it to come back up again to the general area of the 1st peak (the 0241 candle rose to 86.93 – 4 ticks off the peak).