NG 04-13 (1 Min) 2.28.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 04-13 (1 Min) 2_28_2013

2/28/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -165B
Actual: -171B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.458
1st Peak @ 3.395 – 1031 (1 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 3.460 – 1031 (1 min)
65 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.492 (9 min)
97 ticks

Notes:  Moderately greater loss than was forecast saw a short spike of 63 ticks that was unsustainable, followed by a quick reversal of 35 ticks.  Then it hovered at the 3.430 area and continued long to 3.460 before the bar expired.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.445, then had an opportunity to exit at about breakeven after the pullback.   After the indecisive :31 bar, the reversal continued long for another 32 ticks in the next 8 min.  Then it backed off and chopped sideways.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2.21.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2_21_2013

2/21/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -119B
Actual: -127B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.251
Premature spike @ 3.234 – 1030 (0 min)
-17 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.337 – 1031 (1 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 3.271 – 1040 (10 min)
66 ticks

Notes:  Moderately greater loss than was forecast saw a premature short spike of 17 ticks, then caused a 1st peak of 86 ticks that crossed all 3 of the major SMAs that were previously serving as support near the origin.  It crossed the R1 Pivot halfway up the spike, then peaked 2 ticks above the R2 Pivot.  After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed strongly and quickly for 66 ticks in 10 min.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2_7_2013

2/7/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -135B
Actual: -118B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.414
1st Peak @ 3.341 – 1031 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 3.372 – 1032 (2 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.318 – 1136 (66 min)
96 ticks

Reversal to 3.345 – 1204 (94 min)
27 ticks

Notes:  Smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 73 ticks that was a few seconds premature, crossed no SMAs and the S1 / S2 Pivots.  With JOBB, you would not have filled since the spike moved early on the :30 bar before the bracket was on the chart. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for a meager 31 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks an hour later. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 27 ticks in about 30 min to touch the 100 SMA.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2.14.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2_14_2013

2/14/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -166B
Actual: -157B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.274
1st Peak @ 3.187 – 1033 (3 min)
87 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.135 – 1322 (172 min)
139 ticks

Reversal to 3.167 – 1401 (211 min)
32 ticks

Notes:  Moderately smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 87 ticks that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs at the origin, and the S1 Pivot halfway down the spike.  It eventually bottomed on the 1st peak 4 ticks below the S2 Pivot.  After achieving the 1st peak, it continued to step lower, never wanting to reverse much.  It achieved a final peak almost 3 hrs after the report of 139 ticks, and did not cross the 50 SMA until 1330.  The final reversal garnered only 32 ticks in about 40 min to eclipse the 200 SMA. Overall a very bearish reaction over a long period of time.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 1.31.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 1_31_2013

1/31/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -202B
Actual: -194B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.329
1st Peak @ 3.253 – 1031 (1 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 3.269 – 1034 (4 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.243 – 1037 (7 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 3.383 – 1159 (89 min)
140 ticks

Notes:  Slightly smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 76 ticks that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs on top of each other and the PP / S1 Pivots.  With JOBB, you would not have filled since the spike moved early on the :30 bar before the bracket was on the chart. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for a meager 16 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of only 10 more ticks in 7 min. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 35 ticks in 18 min, then 105 more ticks in the next hour to eclipse the R1 Pivot.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 1.24.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 1_24_2013

1/24/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -167B
Actual: -172B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.603
1st Peak @ 3.524 – 1031 (1 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 3.567 – 1033 (3 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.519 – 1041 (11 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 3.576 – 1119 (49 min)
57 ticks

Notes:  Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a contrary short spike of 79 ticks that crossed all 3 SMAs on top of each other and the PP / S1 Pivots.  With JOBB, you would have filled short with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.570.  Then you would have an opportunity to close out with at least 30 ticks as it hovered around the S1 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for 43 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of only 5 more ticks in 11 min. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 42 ticks in 9 min, then 15 more ticks in the next 30 min to eclipse the 100 SMA.

NG 02 13 (1 Min) 01.17.13

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Jan 172013
 


NG 02 13 (1 Min) 01.17.13

1/17/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -131B
Actual: -148B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.434
1st Peak @ 3.500 – 1032 (2 min)
66 ticks
2nd Peak @ 3.520 – 1038 (8 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 3.461 – 1158 (88 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 66 ticks that crossed no SMAs but the R1 Pivot as it was trending higher before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.464. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with at least 30 ticks as it finished the bar near 3.500. After achieving the 1st peak, it retreated slightly, then achieved a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in 7 min to eclipse the R2 Pivot by 9 ticks. The reversal was slow developing, garnering 33 ticks in 3 min, then 26 more ticks in the next 80 min. After that it slowly rallied again.

NG 02 13 (1 Min) 01.10.13

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Jan 102013
 


NG 02 13 (1 Min) 01.10.13

1/10/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -185B
Actual: -201B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.163
1st Peak @ 3.204 – 1031 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 3.166 – 1039 (9 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 41 ticks that crossed no SMAs or Pivots as it was trending higher before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 12 ticks of slippage at about 3.185. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15 ticks as it hovered in the 3.200 area. After achieving the 1st peak, 4 ticks below the R1 Pivot, it quickly retreated downward for 38 ticks in 8 min to touch the 20 SMA. After that it slowly rallied again to eventually eclipse the R1 Pivot 45 min after the report and chop sideways afterward.

NG 01 13 (1 Min) 12.06.12

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Dec 062012
 


NG 01 13 (1 Min) 12.06.12

12/6/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -70B
Actual: -73B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.679
1st Peak @ 3.748 – 0531 (1 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 3.614 – 0639 (69 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 69 ticks that crossed only the 200 SMA as it was using the 50 and 100 SMAs for support at the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long, narrowly avoiding a premature short spike with about 22 ticks of slippage at about 3.711. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15-20 ticks as it hovered in the 3.730 area. After achieving the 1st peak, it methodically retreated downward in the next hour for a 134 tick reversal, crossing all of the SMAs and eclipsing the PP Pivot by 23 ticks. After that it rallied again for about 90 ticks in the next 90 min, then continued its overall bearish trend. As the current overall sentiment is very bearish on NG, be careful about getting too greedy on long trades.

NG 01 13 (1 Min) 11.29.12

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Nov 292012
 


NG 01 13 (1 Min) 11.29.12

11/29/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -5B
Actual: 4B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.696
1st Peak @ 3.637 – 0531 (1 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 3.678 – 0535 (5 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 3.697 – 0641 (71 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Small gain in supply when a small loss was forecast caused a short spike of 59 ticks that crossed the S2 Pivot and fell another 23 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.668. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15-25 ticks as it hovered below the S2 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it quickly retreated upward for a 41 tick reversal in only 5 min nearing the 13 SMA. Then it tried to go for a 2nd peak, stalled 7 ticks above the 1st peak, and retreated long again to fight through the 50 then the 100 SMA for 60 ticks over an hour later. As the current overall sentiment is very bearish on NG, be careful about getting too greedy on long trades.

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