11/21/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0700 HI time / 1200 EST)
Forecast: -27B
Actual: -38B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.835
1st Peak @ 3.910 – 0701 (1 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 3.857 – 0707 (7 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Greater loss in supply than the forecast caused a long spike of 75 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot and approached the R2 Pivot on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.865. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 30-40 ticks as it hovered between 3.895 and 3.905. After achieving the 1st peak, it tried to go for a 2nd peak, failed, and retreated quickly to near the 20 SMA for 53 ticks. Then it bounced back up, fell back to hit the 50 SMA, then trended higher. The R2 was at 3.917. I had my sell limit there anticipating a reversal entry, but it never got there, falling short by 7 ticks. I got in much later going short on the R1 and nagging 14 ticks as it touched the 50 SMA.

11/8/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 27B
Actual: 21B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.529
1st Peak @ 3.578 – 0531 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 3.560 – 0532 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.591 – 0538 (8 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 3.545 – 0618 (48 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Lesser gain in supply compared to what was expected caused a moderate long spike of 49 ticks. The initial spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot near the origin then hit its peak at the PP Pivot. After a small reversal of 18 ticks, it geared up for a 2nd peak of 62 ticks total a few min later. The reversal reclaimed 46 ticks in about 40 min crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs, then bottoming out at the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 3.560 with about 20 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 10 ticks as it bobbed near the top of the bar a few times.

10/25/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 66B
Actual: 67B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.756
1st Peak @ 3.772 – 0431 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 3.712 – 0433 (3 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a dullish long spike of 16 ticks that crossed the 50 SMA, but could not go much higher than the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the spike with about 2 ticks of slippage at about 3.768. Then when you see that it does not blast off normally, realize it is not going to yield much and close out with a few ticks or break even. The next bar began the reversal and the :03 bar shorted about 50 ticks to eclipse the S1 Pivot. If you had not closed out, you would have seen it hit your stop loss. Do not get caught waiting for a bounce and end up with a loss which is easily preventable.

10/11/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 72B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.511
1st Peak @ 3.592 – 0431 (1 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 3.568 – 0433 (3 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.628 – 0507 (37 min)
117 ticks

Reversal to 3.557 – 0635 (125 min)
71 ticks

Notes: Lesser gain in supply compared to what was expected caused a large long spike of 81 ticks. The initial spike crossed the R1 and R2 Pivots with ease. After a small reversal of 24 ticks, it geared up for a 2nd peak of 117 ticks total over 30 min later. The reversal reclaimed 71 ticks in about 90 min crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs, then bottoming out at the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled at about 3.550 with about 30 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 30 ticks as it methodically rose and stayed near the top of the bar.

9/27/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 80B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.264
1st Peak @ 3.247 – 0431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 3.280 – 0432 (2 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.210 – 0449 (19 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 3.249 – 0501 (31 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report with a large gain in supply caused a relatively dull reaction for the NG. After some initial noise, it drifted lower for 17 ticks, sitting on the R1 at the origin, then crossing the 100 and 200 SMAs on the short move. It retreated and left the entire tail naked, finishing where it started. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with no slippage at about 3.254. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 2-3 ticks where it hovered before retreating upward. The reversal quickly recovered above the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot for 33 ticks, then fell into the 2nd peak. The 2nd peak took 3 steps as it ratcheted lower for 54 ticks. With a near matching report, tame initial reaction, and the SMAs surrounding the action at the beginning, I would not be inclined to take a manual trade on this report. However, selling a rip on the :32 bar with a stop above the HOD at 3.290 would have been a safe play. Keep an eye on it as it crosses the 100 and 200 SMAs on the :33 and :34 bars (no large support influence), and closeout after the :34 bar.