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10/18/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 46B
Actual: 51B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.459
1st Peak @ 3.401 – 0431 (1 min)
58 ticks
Reversal to 3.521 – 0457 (27 min)
120 ticks
Notes: Greater gain in supply compared to what was expected caused a short spike of 58 ticks that could not sustain its drop. Crossing the S1 Pivot and the LOD was too much to sustain, so it rebounded upward and reversed for 120 ticks to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot, then peak at the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.430. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 10 ticks where it hovered around the S1 Pivot at 3.419 for several seconds before reversing. If you had not closed out, you would have seen it slowly march toward your stop loss. Do not be a lemming going off the cliff in a case like that…close out before your profit is erased and turned into a loss.