6/21/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 64B
Actual: 62B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.546
1st Peak @ 2.505 / Reverse to 2.638 – 0431 (1 min)
-41 ticks / 92 ticks

Reversal to 2.554 – 0449 (19 min)
84 ticks

Notes: A nearly matching report caused indecision and a larger double wicker with a span of over 130 ticks as it dropped 41 ticks then rallied for 133. After seeing the indecisive reaction and noting the near matching report, it would be safe and reasonable to sell the peak and buy the dip as big oscillations will happen for about 1 hr. In this case, I would sell on the 33 bar when it could not eclipse the height of the 31 bar and the R1 Pivot. Then note the upward slope and use the 50 SMA as the floor of support and buy when it drops a few ticks under. It continued to use the 50 SMA for support up for 90 min after when a larger reversal took over and it fought through all the SMAs

6/7/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 57B
Actual: 62B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.398
1st Peak @ 2.333 – 0431 (1 min)
65 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.304 – 0450 (20 min)
94 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 2.324 – 0508 (38 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Small offset in the supply gain from the forecast caused a surprising large short spike and 2nd peak with a minimal reversal. The market must have been look for an excuse to sell off. No SMAs were crossed, but the S2 Pivot was crossed about halfway down the :31 bar path. The 2nd peak claimed another 29 ticks in about 20 min, and the reversal only achieved 20 ticks in 38 min before dropping again.

5/24/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 77B
Actual: 77B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.708
1st Peak @ 2.688 / Reverse to 2.742 – 0431 (1 min)
-20 ticks / 34 ticks

Reversal bottom at 2.664 – 0446
44 ticks

Notes: An exactly matching report, caused indecision and a double wicker of 54 ticks from top to bottom initially that spanned out to 80 ticks at its max. After seeing the double wicker and noting the matching report. It would be safe and reasonable to sell the peak and buy the dip as big oscillations will happen for about 1 hr. As it settles, the movement becomes closer to the centerline and the swings are lesser in magnitude.

5/10/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 33B
Actual: 30B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.455
1st Peak @ 2.498 – 0431 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 2.422 – 0445 (15 min)
76 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed all three major SMAs along with the PP Pivot on its upward path, before hitting its nadir just short of 2.500. The report came in with a near matching value of 30B ft3 rise. With JOBB you would have filled long, then had an opportunity to exit when hovering was evident with about 15 ticks profit about 20 sec into the :31 candle. With a matching report, the reversal can be expected to at least come back to the level of the origin. In this case it yielded 76 ticks in 15 min, nearly double the amount of the initial spike.

4/19/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 10B
Actual: 25B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.951
1st Peak @ 1.932 (Premature) / Reverse to 1.971 – 0431 (1 min)
-19 ticks / 20 ticks

Notes: Strong positive supply, but indecisive reaction as the market was trading is a consolidated fist prior to the report. After 4 minutes we got the negative bearish reaction that should have happened. This report broke the trend of safe reports for JOBB at the entry and returned the premature spike to the routine. No clear reason for the indecisive double wicker, but it is a risk that is prone to happen occasionally.