CL 06-16 (1 Min) 4.20.2016

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May 172016
 

CL 06-16 (1 Min) 4_20_2016

4/20/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.40M
Actual: 2.08M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.22M
Actual: -0.11M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.30M
Actual: -3.55M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 41.55
1st Peak @ 41.88 – 1030:34 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 41.67 – 1030:59 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 42.17 – 1033 (3 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 41.82 – 1039 (9 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 44.07 – 1308 (158 min)
252 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.65 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 41.87 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 41.90 (35 ticks) and 42.16 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Big draw on heating oil while the crude and gas figures were narrowly offsetting. This caused a racheting long move for 33 ticks then another 29 ticks in the next 2 min. A no slippage fill offered up to 22 ticks early, or about 50 with patience. It settled into a huge long trend after conquering the PP Pivot that continued for 2.5 hrs.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

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May 162016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.85M
Actual: 6.63M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.39M
Actual: -4.24M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.28M
Actual: 0.51M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 41.66
1st Peak @ 41.87 – 1030:00 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 41.51 – 1030:17 (1 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 42.00 – 1031:11 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 41.26 – 1034 (4 min)
74 ticks

Final Peak @ 42.42 – 1102 (32 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 41.74 – 1130 (60 min)
68 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.79 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.17 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 41.92 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Conflicting report caused an unstable reaction. You would have filled long on the initial spike, then stopped 4 sec later at 41.64. It cycled again before climbing for a 2nd peak after crossing the R1 Mid Pivot, then reversed to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4.6.2016

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May 162016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 4_6_2016

4/6/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.15M
Actual: -4.94M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.97M
Actual: 1.44M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.33M
Actual: 1.80M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 36.82
1st Peak @ 37.18 – 1030:12 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 36.63 – 1033 (3 min)
55 ticks

2nd Peak @ 37.46 – 1045 (15 min)
64 ticks

Final Peak @ 37.81 – 1146 (76 min)
99 ticks

Reversal to 37.55 – 1215 (105 min)
26 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 36.95 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.17 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 37.08 (just above the R3 Pivot) and 37.16 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Big draw on oil offset by a moderate gain on the products. This caused a long spike of 36 ticks to the HOD, then a reversal 1 min later, and finally a long fan that took over an hour to finalize. This would have allowed up to 20 or so ticks to be captured with a target on or just above the HOD. In the long trend, it used the 13/20 SMAs as a moving floor.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016

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Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_30_2016

3/30/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.30M
Actual: 2.30M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.18M
Actual: -2.51M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.03M
Actual: -1.08M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 39.42
Whipsaw between 39.17 and 39.65 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-15/+23 ticks

1st Peak @ 39.77 – 1030:47 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 39.54 – 1032 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 39.85 – 1033 (3 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 39.28 – 1051 (21 min)
57 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 39.30 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 39.45 – stopped out for 15 ticks loss with no slippage
Recommended Profit Target placement: 39.10 (just below the 200 SMA)

Notes: Whipsaw in the first second would have only stopped you stopped you out for a 15 tick loss with no slippage. After that it settled down and climbed for 1st and 2nd peak with a reversal in between. Then it fell into a selloff for over an hour to the LOD.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.23.2016

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Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_23_2016

3/23/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.09M
Actual: 9.36M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.48M
Actual: -4.64M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.06M
Actual: 0.92M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 40.58
1st Peak @ 40.22 – 1030:32 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 40.79 – 1032 (2 min)
57 ticks

2nd Peak @ 40.17 – 1039 (9 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 40.58 – 1050 (20 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: 40.46 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 40.23 – 23 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 40.23 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Big draw on the crude caused a nice short spike of 36 ticks to the S2 Pivot offering up to 23 ticks with an easily placed profit target. Then a strong reversal followed by a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

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Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.41M
Actual: 1.32M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.34M
Actual: -0.75M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -1.14M
DULL FILL
Started @ 39.04
1st Peak @ 39.33 – 1030:00 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 38.99 – 1030:22 (1 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 39.32 – 1030:36 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 38.82 – 1034 (4 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 39.31 – 1045 (15 min)
49 ticks

Expected Fill: 39.19 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 39.19 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 39.36 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Unsustainable long spike reached the HOD then promptly recoiled. It hovered at the fill point for 4 sec before dropping and hovering 9 ticks lower. Either place would have presented an opportunity to exit near the entry or for a smaller loss than a full stop out. Otherwise the stop would have been taken after about 13 sec. After that it oscillated between the HOD and 50 SMA with one excursion to the 100 SMA.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

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Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.87M
Actual: 3.88M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.39M
Actual: -4.53M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.04M
Actual: -1.12M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 37.23
1st Peak @ 37.75 – 1031:58 (2 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 37.43 – 1035 (5 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 38.02 – 1039 (9 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 37.39 – 1055 (25 min)
63 ticks

Expected Fill: 37.36 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 37.74 – 38 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 37.63 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Moderate long spike peaked quickly at the R1 Pivot then backed off before pulling back in the next min to reclaim the R1 Pivot. After a reversal to the 13 SMA, it climbed for a 2nd peak. Then it reversed to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

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Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.60M
Actual: 10.37M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -1.47M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.20M
Actual: 2.88M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 34.36
1st Peak @ 33.81 – 1030:14 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 34.08 – 1030:45 (1 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 33.59 – 1033 (3 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 33.98 – 1035 (5 min)
39 ticks

Double Bottom @ 33.56 – 1041 (11 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 35.17 – 1111 (41 min)
161 ticks

Expected Fill: 34.26 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 33.82 – 44 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 33.87 (just below the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Moderate short spike peaked fell to eclipse the OOD then hovered before reversing due to the support of the Major SMAs. Then it fell for a 2nd peak as the large gain on crude drove it to the LOD / S1 Pivot. After the double bottom, great reversal trade opportunity as the support level held.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.24.2016

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Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2_24_2016

2/24/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.43M
Actual: 3.50M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.03M
Actual: -2.24M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.71M
Actual: -1.66M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.92
1st Peak @ 31.34 – 1030:28 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 30.78 – 1031:35 (2 min)
56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 31.58 – 1042 (12 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 30.94 – 1054 (24 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 31.27 – 1100 (30 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 30.76 – 1118 (48 min)
51 ticks

Expected Fill: 31.06 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 31.33 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 31.31 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Moderate long spike peaked at the OOD then hovered before reversing. Then a large reversal to the 3 Major SMAs before a 2nd Peak to breach the HOD. Then it fell strongly off of the HOD to the S2 Mid Pivot.

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2.18.2016

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Mar 142016
 

CL 04-16 (1 Min) 2_18_2016

2/18/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 3.92M
Actual: 2.15M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.50M
Actual: 3.04M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.50M
Actual: 1.40M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 33.88
1st Peak @ 33.27 – 1100:22 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 33.67 – 1103 (3 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 32.75 – 1110 (10 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 33.20 – 1117 (17 min)
45 ticks

Double Bottom @ 32.72 – 1136 (36 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 33.38 – 1211 (71 min)
66 ticks

Expected Fill: 33.75 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 33.28 – 47 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 33.53 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Nice healthy short spike of 61 ticks would have yielded up to 47 ticks of profit after 22 sec. After a reversal, it fell for a nice 2nd peak to the area of the PP Pivot. Several opportunities for trades: sell the :03 bar above the OOD, buy just above the PP Pivot or at 1110 or 1136, or sell just below the R1 Mid Pivot at 1117.

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