8/19/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.78M
Actual: 2.62M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.61M
Actual: -2.71M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.33M
Actual: 0.59M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 42.62
1st Peak @ 42.16 – 1031:37 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 42.38 – 1034 (4 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 41.15 – 1137 (67 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 41.53 – 1207 (97 min)
38 ticks

Expected Fill: 42.48 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 42.17 – 31 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 42.06 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move higher

Notes: The large gain on oil caused a nice spike that turned into a downward fan and used the 13/20 SMAs as resistance for over an hour.

9/2/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.03M
Actual: 4.67M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.33M
Actual: -0.27M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.92M
Actual: 0.12M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 45.18
1st Peak @ 44.17 – 1032:22 (3 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 44.69 – 1037 (7 min)
52 ticks

2nd Peak @ 43.71 – 1058 (28 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 44.43 – 1113 (43 min)
72 ticks

Final Peak @ 43.21 – 1157 (87 min)
197 ticks

Reversal to 45.90 – 1328 (178 min)
269 ticks

Expected Fill: 45.05 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 44.18 – 87 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 44.60 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Large move due to the strong gain on crude. Great 2nd peak opportunity as it reversed to the 13 SMA at 1037

9/16/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.17M
Actual: -2.10M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.02M
Actual: 2.84M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.00M
Actual: 3.06M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 45.80
1st Peak @ 45.46 – 1030:00 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 45.86 – 1030:07 (1 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 45.42 – 1030:27 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 45.86 – 1031:49 (2 min)
44 ticks

Pullback to 45.52 – 1037 (7 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 47.35 – 1117 (47 min)
183 ticks

Expected Fill: 45.65 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 45.48 – 17 ticks (likely exit – 5 ticks)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 45.34 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strange reaction that fully reversed after 7 sec. It immediately peaked then hovered for 3 sec before the reversal, so exit with the trigger otherwise you would have been stopped out after 7 sec. After that it fell again 20 sec later then quickly reversed again. It eventually reversed into a long trend of almost 200 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot using the 13 SMA as support.

9/30/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.10M
Actual: 3.96M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.04M
Actual: 3.25M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.47M
Actual: -0.27M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 45.42
1st Peak @ 44.73 – 1032:04 (3 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 45.85 – 1042 (12 min)
112 ticks

Pullback to 45.02 – 1125 (55 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 45.51 – 1151 (81 min)
49 ticks

Expected Fill: 45.29 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 44.74 – 55 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 45.13 or 44.95 (just below the 200 SMA or S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Gains on all products caused a long developing 1st peak due to several layers of support. Be patient in this case as there is nothing bullish in the news. Nice strong reversal after reaching the S1 Pivot. Then a double top for a perfect short entry.

10/15/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: 2.85M
Actual: 7.56M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.70M
Actual: -2.62M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.06M
Actual: -1.52M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 45.78
1st Peak @ 45.42 – 1100:31 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 45.89 – 1101:54 (2 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 45.23 – 1126 (26 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 46.38 – 1301 (121 min)
115 ticks

Expected Fill: 45.64 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 45.43 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 45.25 (40 ticks) – move higher to about 45.48

Notes: Notice the hovering just below the S2 Pivot and look to exit. After the large reversal, it presented an opportunity for a short entry on the 2nd peak.