CL 12-15 (1 Min) 10.28.2015

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Jan 182016
 

CL 12-15 (1 Min) 10_28_2015

10/28/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.42M
Actual: 3.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.82M
Actual: -1.14M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.68M
Actual: -2.95M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 44.57
1st Peak @ 45.26 – 1031:14 (2 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 44.75 – 1036 (6 min)
51 ticks

Final Peak @ 45.97 – 1102 (32 min)
140 ticks

Reversal to 45.37 – 1116 (46 min)
60 ticks

Expected Fill: 44.67 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 45.25 – 58 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 45.04 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report followed the uptrend with misses on all the products. Then it continued to step higher for next 30 min.

CL 12-15 (1 Min) 11.4.2015

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Jan 182016
 

CL 12-15 (1 Min) 11_4_2015

11/4/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.79M
Actual: 2.85M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.97M
Actual: -3.30M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.77M
Actual: -1.30M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 47.54
1st Peak @ 47.77 – 1030:00 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 47.21 – 1030:39 (1 min)
56 ticks

Pullback to 47.85 – 1033 (3 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 46.94 – 1045 (15 min)
91 ticks

Continued Reversal to 46.33 – 1128 (58 min)
91 ticks

Expected Fill: 47.64 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 47.72 – 8 ticks (likely exit 47.64 – Breakeven)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 48.22 (in between the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Small and quick move reversed quickly. It hovered at breakeven for 4 sec to allow an easy escape.

CL 12-15 (1 Min) 11.12.2015

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Jan 182016
 

CL 12-15 (1 Min) 11_12_2015

11/12/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 1.02M
Actual: 4.22M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.81M
Actual: -2.10M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.93M
Actual: 0.35M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 42.25
1st Peak @ 42.86 – 1100:00 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 41.97 – 1101:33 (2 min)
89 ticks

Pullback to 42.56 – 1106 (6 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 41.71 – 1131 (31 min)
85 ticks

Expected Fill: 42.40 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 42.84 – 44 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 42.80 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: With an aptly placed profit target, the quick peak would have been captured. Otherwise exit quickly with about 20 ticks as it backed off, hovered, and then reversed more. Notice the repeated tests of the S2 Mid Pivot 2-4 min after the report as a great long setup for a pullback.

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 11.18.2015

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Jan 182016
 

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 11_18_2015

11/18/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.90M
Actual: 0.25M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.37M
Actual: 1.01M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.53M
Actual: -0.79M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 42.34
1st Peak @ 42.10 – 1030:00 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 42.50 – 1030:10 (1 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 42.02 – 1030:47 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 42.32 – 1033 (3 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 41.76 – 1037 (7 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 42.19 – 1045 (15 min)
43 ticks

Final Peak @ 41.28 – 1208 (98 min)
106 ticks

Reversal to 41.66 – 1217 (107 min)
38 ticks

Expected Fill: 42.24 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 42.17 – 7 ticks (likely exit stopped @ 42.39 – 15 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 41.90 (just below the LOD)

Notes: Report was all over the place in the first 15 sec, then settled down into a short 2nd peak reaction. As it dove then backed off, tighten the stop or exit immediately. It reversed to the R1 Pivot then fell. After that it stepped lower using the 50 SMA as resistance.

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 11.25.2015

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Jan 182016
 

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 11_25_2015

11/25/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.20M
Actual: 0.96M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.94M
Actual: 2.48M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.42M
Actual: 1.05M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 42.00
1st Peak @ 41.86 – 1030:00 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 42.08 – 1030:03 (1 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 41.86 – 1030:43 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 42.29 – 1031:57 (2 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 42.05 – 1033 (3 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 42.58 – 1101 (31 min)
53 ticks

Pullback to 42.25 – 1113 (43 min)
106 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.90 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 42.05 – stopped 15 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Report was all over the place in the first 15 sec, then settled down into a short 2nd peak reaction. As it dove then backed off, tighten the stop or exit immediately. It reversed to the R1 Pivot then fell. After that it stepped lower using the 50 SMA as resistance.

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12.2.2015

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Jan 182016
 

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12_2_2015

12/2/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.47M
Actual: 1.18M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.45M
Actual: 0.14M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.33M
Actual: 3.05M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 41.30
1st Peak @ 40.93 – 1030:20 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 41.13 – 1030:58 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 40.77 – 1036 (6 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 41.26 – 1048 (18 min)
49 ticks

Final Peak @ 39.84 – 1418 (228 min)
146 ticks

Expected Fill: 41.19 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 40.94 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 40.87 (just below the LOD) – move slightly higher

Notes: 1st peak had to cross several layers of support, so expect a reversal after hovering. After the 2nd peak, it reversed to the S1 Pivot before trending lower for almost 4 hours.

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12.9.2015

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Jan 182016
 

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12_9_2015

12/9/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.25M
Actual: -3.57M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.15M
Actual: 0.79M
Distillates
Forecast: 2.46M
Actual: 5.00M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 38.15
1st Peak @ 38.83 – 1030:26 (1 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 38.52 – 1030:58 (1 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 38.99 – 1036 (6 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 38.03 – 1051 (21 min)
96 ticks

Continued Reversal to 37.07 – 1146 (76 min)
146 ticks

Expected Fill: 38.28 (long)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 38.82 – 54 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 38.55 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Strong reaction for a solid 1st and 2nd peak. Note the doji bars 1035-37 with the R2 Mid Pivot just above as a good indication for a short opportunity.

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12.16.2015

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Jan 182016
 

CL 01-16 (1 Min) 12_16_2015

12/16/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -1.42M
Actual: 4.80M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.95M
Actual: 1.73M
Distillates
Forecast: 2.24M
Actual: 2.56M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 36.69
1st Peak @ 36.06 – 1030:00 (1 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 36.53 – 1030:19 (1 min)
47 ticks

Final Peak @ 35.62 – 1153 (83 min)
107 ticks

Reversal to 35.88 – 1157 (87 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 36.54 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 36.16 – 38 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 36.18 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Given the current bearish conditions, look to short any reversal in the early going.

CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016

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Jan 182016
 

CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1_6_2016

1/6/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.44M
Actual: -5.09M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.31M
Actual: 10.58M
Distillates
Forecast: 2.03M
Actual: 6.31M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 35.10
1st Peak @ 34.62 – 1030:23 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 34.87 – 1030:51 (1 min)
25 ticks

Final Peak @ 34.17 – 1054 (24 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 34.62 – 1105 (35 min)
45 ticks

Expected Fill: 34.94 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 34.63 – 31 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 34.70 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Notice how the 1032 – 1035 bars could not climb above the 100 / 200 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot area. This presents a great short entry opportunity on the 2nd peak.

CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1.13.2016

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Jan 182016
 

CL 02-16 (1 Min) 1_13_2016

1/13/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.50M
Actual: 0.23M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.70M
Actual: 8.44M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.98M
Actual: 6.14M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 31.32
1st Peak @ 30.60 – 1030:33 (1 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 30.78 – 1031:07 (2 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 30.10 – 1039 (9 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 30.95 – 1100 (30 min)
85 ticks

Expected Fill: 31.16 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 30.61 – 55 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 30.80 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Very similar results as last week. Nice spike and 2nd peak to the S1 Mid Pivot. The reversal after the 2nd peak was also large and fast to the 50 SMA / PP Pivot area.

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