Oil Inventory | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

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Feb 252014

2/5/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.30M
Actual: 0.44M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.48M
Actual: 0.51M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.58M
Actual: -2.36M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 97.90
1st Peak @ 97.66 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 97.87 – 1032 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.18 – 1046 (16 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 97.52 – 1058 (28 min)
34 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.80 – 1124 (54 min)
110 ticks

Reversal to 97.54 – 1207 (97 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a small gain was expected and distillates saw a moderate draw when a smaller draw was expected. While the results were all in line as more than expected loss of inventory, it did not create the expected bullish reaction. The overall reaction was bearish, delivering a small 24 tick short spike on the :31 bar after some early noise that crossed the 200 SMA and hit the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 97.78 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop to reach a low of 96.66 toward the end of the bar. A profit target placed just below the 200 SMA would have yielded about 10 ticks. After the peak, we saw it reverse, then fall to step lower to a final peak of 110 ticks to reach the S1 Pivot nearly an hour after the report. Then it reclaimed 74 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA 43 min later.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 1.29.2014

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Feb 172014

1/29/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.34M
Actual: 6.42M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.13M
Actual: -0.82M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.23M
Actual: -4.58M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 96.71
1st Peak @ 96.32 – 1031 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 96.70 – 1032 (2 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 96.45 – 1032 (2 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 97.32 – 1041 (11 min)
87 ticks

Pullback to 96.88 – 1053 (23 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a modest gain was expected and distillates saw a healthy draw when a moderate draw was expected. Even though divergent, these numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than expected and the draw on distillates was not surprising due to the extreme cold weather. With the results being divergent it was a bit more chaotic than recent reactions, but still safe. The gains on the crude won the influence battle initially with a 39 tick short spike that crossed the S1 Pivot and LOD on the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 96.59 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop to reach a low of 96.32 in the opening seconds. You would have had an opportunity to capture up to 25 ticks up to 18 sec into the :31 bar. If you waited, your stop loss would have been safe until the :34 bar, but opportunities for profit would have been rarer. After the peak, the :32 bar attempted to test the support again, but failed before the product draws took over to rally the CL. It reversed for 87 ticks in about 10 min in a dramatic move. Then it pulled back for 44 ticks to trade near the 200 SMA.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

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Feb 052014

1/23/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.59M
Actual: 0.99M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.08M
Actual: 2.12M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.85M
Actual: -3.21M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.14
1st Peak @ 97.25 – 1101 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 96.83 – 1103 (3 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.79 – 1127 (27 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 97.58 – 1135 (35 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Minimal gain in inventories when a smaller gain was expected, while gasoline saw a nearly matching moderate gain, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a modest gain was expected. The near match on the crude and gasoline figures acted like a wet blanket initially as it only moved 11 ticks from the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 97.24 with no slippage about 10 sec into the bar if you did not cancel the order, then seen it fall back and hover between 97.15 and 97.22 for the majority of the :31 bar. Look to exit with about a 5 tick loss on the initial dull movement. After the peak, it reversed for 42 ticks in the next 2 bars, nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot. Given the results, the distillates figures should eventually dominate with the largest offset and the impact of the winter. A buy after the big red :32 bar would have been savvy. It rallied for a slow developing, but substantial 2nd peak of 65 ticks in the next 24 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 21 ticks in 8 min to the 13 SMA and settled to trade sideways near the R2 Pivot.

CL 02-14 (1 Min) 1.15.2014

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Feb 052014

1/15/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.61M
Actual: -7.66M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.54M
Actual: 6.18M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.46M
Actual: -1.02M
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 93.45
1st Peak @ 93.88 – 1032 (2 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 93.60 – 1034 (4 min)
28 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.46 – 1127 (57 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 94.13 – 1139 (69 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Large draw in inventories when a slight draw was expected, while gasoline saw a large gain when a moderate gain was expected and distillates saw a modest draw when a modest gain was expected. Even though divergent, these numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than expected and the draw on distillates was not surprising due to the extreme cold weather. With the results being divergent, the draws on the crude and distillated won the influence battle overall with a 43 tick long spike that crossed the R3 Mid Pivot on the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 93.57 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit 93.75 quickly and hover in that area. With the R3 Mid Pivot close by, you could look to exit near 93.75 or be patient and place a target at about 93.85 and wait for it to fill. This would allow 18-28 ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed for 28 ticks in the next 2 bars, back to the area near the 13 SMA. Then it rallied and developed into an Upward FAN, stepping higher to 94.46, above the R3 Pivot, nearly an hour after the report. After that, it surrendered 33 ticks in 12 min back to the 50 SMA, then rebounded to settle into trading between the R3 Pivot and HOD for a while.

CL 02-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014

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Jan 132014

1/8/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.89M
Actual: -2.68M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.28M
Actual: 6.24M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.90M
Actual: 5.83M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.55
1st Peak @ 93.01 – 1031 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 93.32 – 1032 (2 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.85 – 1036 (6 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 93.33 – 1059 (29 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a slight draw was expected, while gasoline and distillates both saw large gains when modest gains were expected. These numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than expected. With the results being divergent, the large gains on the products won the influence battle initially with a 54 tick short spike that crossed the 50 SMA, and the S2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 93.40 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit the S2 Mid Pivot immediately, then swing between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots. A target of 30 ticks would have easily filled, or place a target near the S2 Mid Pivot for 35+ ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 31 ticks on the next bar, back to the S1 Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 16 more ticks in the next 4 min. Then it reversed for 48 ticks in the next 23 min as it reached the 50 SMA and S1 Pivot.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2013

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Dec 262013

12/11/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -2.95M
Actual: -10.59M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.79M
Actual: 6.72M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.94M
Actual: 4.54M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.82
1st Peak @ 98.25 – 1031 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 97.98 – 1032 (2 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.34 – 1037 (7 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 97.60 – 1137 (67 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Very large draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline and distillates both saw large gains when modest gains were expected. These numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than normal. With the results being divergent, the large draw on the crude won the influence battle initially with a 43 tick long spike that crossed all 3 major SMAs, and the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 97.95 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit the 100 SMA and hover for a few sec, fall to the 50 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot, then rally again to challenge the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot as the bar expired. If you look back at the activity between 0930 and 1000, you will see the LOD at 97.89, so use that area as a support barrier to move the stop up to about 97.85 (-10 ticks), then place a profit target at 98.22 on the PP Pivot. This would have easily filled for about 25 or so ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 27 ticks on the next bar, back to the S1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 5 min. Then it chopped lower as it encountered each level of support for 74 ticks in the next hour. as it reached the S1 Pivot and extended the LOD a handful of ticks.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

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Dec 262013

12/4/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.50M
Actual: -5.59M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.52M
Actual: 1.83M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.77M
Actual: 2.65M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.96
1st Peak @ 96.54 – 1031 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 97.03 – 1049 (19 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.30 – 1113 (43 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 97.50 – 1221 (111 min)
120 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a slightly larger gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a modest draw was expected. With the results being divergent, the product gains won the influence battle initially with a 42 tick short decisive short spike that crossed the 100/50 SMAs, the R1 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 96.84 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it ratchet lower until it hit 96.54 and pulled back. With the activity in the last hour seeing a support barrier at the LOD hold 3 times, look to exit around 96.60 with about 20-25 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 49 ticks in the next 18 min, crossing all 3 SMAs and peaking just above the 200 SMA. Then it fell again for a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks in the next 24 min, chopping lower as it extended the LOD again. Finally, the strong draw in the crude caused a large reversal in the next hour or so for 120 ticks as it sought out the HOD.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 11.27.2013

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Nov 292013

11/27/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.61M
Actual: 2.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.26M
Actual: 1.75M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.11M
Actual: -1.67M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.24
1st Peak @ 92.44 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 92.32 – 1032 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.57 – 1034 (4 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 92.08 – 1124 (54 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a nearly matching modest draw. With the results, we would expect to see a short reaction winning out based on the Crude and Gas results. Instead, we saw a tame and small long reaction that crossed the 50/100 SMAs for 20 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 92.34 with no slippage, then seen it chop between -7 and 9 ticks of profit for most of the :31 bar. Look to exit with just a few ticks above the 100 SMA. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks on the :32 bar, crossing the 100 SMA and reaching the 13 SMA. Then it rallied for another 13 ticks for a 2nd peak that crossed the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 49 ticks back to just above the LOD in 50 min.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2013

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Nov 292013

11/20/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.90M
Actual: 0.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.26M
Actual: -0.35M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.61M
Actual: -4.80M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.64
1st Peak @ 94.08 – 1034 (4 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 93.88 – 1035 (5 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.37 – 1047 (12 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 94.02 – 1129 (59 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching negligible gain in inventories, while gasoline saw a nearly matching negligible draw and distillates saw a healthy draw when a negligible draw was expected. With the results, we would expect to see a long reaction winning out based on the Distillate results. We saw a choppy long reaction that took several bars to rise as it targeted the 200/100 SMAs and R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 93.76 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between -10 and 8 ticks of profit for most of the :31 bar, before it started ratcheting upward. You could have exited with a few ticks above breakeven, or be patient due to the distillate results. It continued to step higher for another 20 ticks in the next 3 bars. After the peak, it reversed 20 ticks on the :35 bar as it struggled with the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied for another 29 ticks for a 2nd peak that crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 35 ticks back to the 200 SMA in about 47 min.

CL 12-13 (1 Min) 11.14.2013

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Nov 292013

11/14/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.99M
Actual: 2.64M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.69M
Actual: -0.84M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.29M
Actual: -0.48M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.02
1st Peak @ 93.12 – 1101 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 92.51 – 1111 (11 min)
61 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.43 – 1231 (91 min)
141 ticks

Reversal to 93.94 – 1331 (151 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a nearly matching negligible draw and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected. With the results, we would expect to see a short reaction winning out with indecision initially. We saw a muted reaction that would have remained inside the bracket for about 20 sec. After spiking long for only 10 ticks as it crossed the 50/100 SMAs, it reversed for 61 ticks in the next 10 min, crossing the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse until 20 sec, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it changed sentiment and climbed for a large 2nd peak of 141 ticks in 80 min, crossing all 3 major Pivots and the R1 Pivot. Then it backed off slowly to reverses 49 ticks in an hour back to the R1 Mid Pivot.

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