11/6/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.63M
Actual: 1.58M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.34M
Actual: -3.76M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.30M
Actual: -4.90M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.38
1st Peak @ 94.69 – 1031 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 94.27 – 1033 (3 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.78 – 1045 (15 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 94.43 – 1109 (39 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline and distillates both saw healthy draws when modest draws were expected. With the results, the product draws drove the news. We saw a long spike of 31 ticks in 1 min that started on the upward trending 13/20 SMAs, then crossed the R2 Mid Pivot prior to leaving 13 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 94.52 with 4 ticks of slippage, then place your target in the vicinity of the R2 Pivot at 94.82. After peaking at 94.69 12 sec into the bar, then hovering and falling, exit before the reversal surrenders all of your profit. After the peak, it reversed for 42 ticks on the next 2 bars as it eclipsed the 50 SMA, then geared up for the 2nd peak. It only achieved another 9 ticks, unable to quite reach the R2 Pivot, then it fell for 35 ticks in the next 24 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it continued the long term rally, stepping higher.

10/23/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.94M
Actual: 5.25M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.25M
Actual: -1.81M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.50
1st Peak @ 96.24 – 1031 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 96.67 – 1032 (2 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.17 – 1036 (6 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 96.63 – 1105 (35 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. With conflicting results, we saw a short spike that was unsustainable, but still safe to capture a profit. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 96.39 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall and hover between 2 and 15 ticks of profit near the LOD. With the hovering and the apparent support barrier, look to exit there with about 12 ticks. After about 22 sec, it reversed and left the tail naked to finish the bar near the origin, then gain a total of 43 ticks on the :32 bar, back to the 200 SMA. Then it fell again in the next 4 bars to achieve a 2nd peak of 33 ticks as it hit the LOD. Then it pulled back and chopped sideways below the 50/100 SMAs and eventually popped up to eclipse the 200 SMA for a total of 46 ticks in about 30 min.

10/9/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.49M
Actual: 6.81M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.31M
Actual: 0.15M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 101.98
1st Peak @ 101.34 – 1031 (1 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 101.83 – 1038 (8 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. With mildly conflicting results, the crude results drove the bearish move. We saw a short spike of 64 ticks that crossed the S4 Pivot, so the market was oversold possibly preventing a larger drop from happening under different circumstances. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 101.87 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it continue to ratchet lower without hovering more than 3-4 sec. Look to exit near the S4 Pivot for about 45 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 49 ticks in 7 min, back to the S4 Mid Pivot and 20 SMA. Then it drifted lower for the next 90 min between the S4 Mid and S4 Pivots.

9/25/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.13M
Actual: 2.64M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.14M
Actual: 0.22M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.52
1st Peak @ 103.15 – 1031 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 103.38 – 1032 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @102.82 – 1038 (8 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 103.63 – 1131 (61 min)
81 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline results were nearly matching with a negligible gain. With the supply gains is crude driving the action, we saw a moderate short spike on the :31 bar that crossed the 50 SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot for 37 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 103.37 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover between 3 and 14 ticks of profit. A target just below the R1 Mid Pivot at 103.16 would have filled 8 sec into the bar for 21 ticks. Otherwise, look to exit with about 10 ticks when it hovered. After the peak, it reversed for 23 ticks on the next bar, falling for a 2nd peak of 33 more ticks as it eclipsed the PP Pivot 5 min later. Then it reversed for 81 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the R2 Mid Pivot in less than an hour.

9/11/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.50M
Actual: -0.22M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.25M
Actual: 1.66M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 107.52
1st Peak @ 106.95 – 1031 (1 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 108.09 – 1209 (99 min)
114 ticks

Notes: Negligible draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. With consistent results, we saw a large short spike on the :31 bar that crossed the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot for 57 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 107.39 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover around the PP Pivot. A target a few ticks below the PP Pivot at about 107.07 would have easily filled for 30+ ticks. After the peak, it reversed strongly for 114 ticks in the next 1.5 hrs, stepping higher as each resistance level was conquered. After the reversal crossed the R2 Mid Pivot, it backed off and traded sideways. We are now seeing a theme where the reversal is much larger than the peak and pans out much slower.