8/21/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.96M
Actual: -1.43M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.49M
Actual: -4.03M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 104.77
1st Peak @ 104.88 – 1031 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 104.71 – 1031 (1 min)
-17 ticks

Settle @ 104.94 – 1031 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 104.24 – 1033 (3 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy draw when a modest draw was expected. With consistent results, the gas results should have caused a decisive and sustained long reaction, but we saw an indecisive and bizarre reaction. It popped for 11 ticks, then reversed 17 ticks and continued to oscillate around the S1 Mid Pivot before eventually settling 17 ticks higher. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 104.87 with no slippage, then seen it back off. If you were quick and hit the close button, you could have exited with 5-10 ticks loss before it would have hit the stop loss at 11 sec for 15 ticks. After the :31 bar, the :32 bar bizarrely fell 70 ticks into the early part of the next bar. This is strange due to the bullish news, but sometimes oil has a mind of its own and bucks the tide. Then it rebounded upward again in the next 12 min to achieve a 2nd peak as the bipolar sentiment. After that it fell and traded sideways near the SMAs.

8/7/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.24M
Actual: -1.32M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.76M
Actual: 0.14M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 105.39
1st Peak @ 105.15 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 105.50 – 1031 (1 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 104.58 – 1038 (8 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 105.18 – 1044 (14 min)
60 ticks

Extended Reversal to 105.35 – 1121 (51 min)
77 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching minimal draw in inventories, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a minimal draw was expected. With matching and offsetting news, we saw a choppy reaction that was still profitable. This caused a short move initially that fell 24 ticks to hit the 200 SMA, then pull back to the origin, before falling to the 200 SMA again and hovering within 5 ticks for about 6 sec. Then it reversed up to 105.50, to an unlabeled level of resistance. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 105.27 with 2 ticks of slippage. After seeing it hit the 200 SMA, retreat, and then fall to the 200 SMA again, look to exit just above the 200 SMA with about 8-10 ticks when it hovered for 6 sec. If you did not get out there, it would have stopped you out on the reversal about 20 sec later. After the reversal at the end of the :31 bar, it stepped lower for a 2nd peak of 57 more ticks in 7 min to hit the LOD. Then it reversed for 60 ticks in 6 min back to the 200 SMA, and another 17 ticks in the next 35 min. After that it continued to chop while drifting lower.

7/24/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.5M
Actual: -2.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 106.46
1st Peak @ 106.90 – 1032 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 106.57 – 1035 (5 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 106.95 – 1051 (21 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 104.86 – 1234 (124 min)
209 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to fall from record highs, and the news a bit mixed. We saw a long spike of 44 ticks in 2 min that started below the 100/50 SMAs, then crossed the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot prior to leaving 14 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 106.57 with 1 tick of slippage, then place your target in between the PP Pivot and the 200 SMA for about 22 ticks, which would have easily filled on the :32 bar. After that it pulled back as traded sideways around the 200 SMA, then achieved a minor 2nd peak of 5 more ticks, but could not break the 107 area. Then it sold off heavily in the next 90 min for over 200 ticks, nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot.

Caption for 7/10:
7/10/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.9M
Actual: -9.9M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 105.05
1st Peak @ 105.73 – 1032 (2 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 105.33 – 1035 (5 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.99 – 1051 (21 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 105.30 – 1134 (64 min)
69 ticks

Notes: Big draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to fall from record highs, and the news was all bullish for oil to bring in the bulls. We saw a long spike of 68 ticks in 2 min that started on the R3 Mid Pivot, then crossed all 3 major Pivots and peaked on the R3 Pivot prior to leaving 18 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 105.20 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit 105.50 quickly and retreat to chop sideways. You could close out with a handful of ticks, or wait out a profit target of 25 ticks on the :32 bar with the SMAs all offering support. After hitting the R3 Pivot, it reversed for 40 ticks in 5 min, then geared up for a 2nd peak of 26 more ticks in the next 15 min, extending the HOD at the same time. Then it backed off and reversed for 69 ticks in the next 40 min to eclipse the 200 SMA.

6/26/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.9M
Actual: 0.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.12
1st Peak @ 94.41 – 1031 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 94.70 – 1032 (2 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.68 – 1043 (13 min)
144 ticks

Reversal to 94.79 – 1101 (31 min)
111 ticks

Extended Reversal to 95.60 – 1226 (116 min)
192 ticks

Notes: No change in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs, so the overall high supply and the gain in gas brought in the bears. We saw a short spike of 71 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the S1 Pivot and nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot, followed by a pullback of 29 ticks that retreated to the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 94.96 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it drop like a rock to give you 40-50 ticks capturable on the :31 bar. After the pullback, it fell for a 2nd peak of 115 more ticks in the next 10 min, eclipsing the S2 Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 111 ticks in about 20 min, and another 80 ticks in the next 1.5 hrs. Very large movement for this report.