Oil Inventory | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 13 (1Min) 2.6.13

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Apr 202013

2/6/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.7M
Actual: 2.6M
DULL REACTION
Started @ 95.66
1st Bar Hi/Lo @ 95.73 / 95.59 – 1031 (1 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Matching gain in crude inventories, while gasoline saw a moderate rise and distillates saw a small drop. This caused a dull reaction with all results near the expectation and the market trading on the S3 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have filled in 15 sec, so cancel the order. As the market was engaged in a bullish correction prior to the report, it continued its slow and deliberate long run 2 min after the report. This is the first dull reaction inventory report since we have been monitoring this report in 18 months.

CL 03 13 (1 Min) 1.24.13

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Apr 202013

1/24/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 1.9M
Actual: 2.8M
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 96.14
1st Peak @ 95.94 – 1101 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 96.45 – 1107 (7 min)
51 ticks

Extended Reversal to 96.68 – 1136 (36 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in crude inventories, while gasoline saw a moderate drop and distillates saw a negligible gain. This prompted a small short move of 20 ticks that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs then bottomed at the 200 SMA on the :02 bar, moving on the crude #s first. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have filled initially. Close out the order after the initial reaction in a few seconds does not fill you. It is likely dull or conflicted. Thus we saw a relatively small short move initially. Then it reversed decisively and eclipsed the R1 Pivot and the HOD for 51 ticks 5 min later on the gasoline results. It continued to test the R1 Pivot and eventually broke through for another 23 ticks up to 96.68. After that it fell strongly in the next hour.

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.16.13

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Jan 162013

1/16/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.0M
Actual: -1.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.50
1st Peak @ 93.69 – 1031 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 93.57 – 1032 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.36 – 1107 (37 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 94.08 – 1130 (60 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in crude inventories, while gasoline and distillates both saw small gains. This prompted a small long move that crossed no SMAs and the PP Pivot to reach the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 93.64 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get a few ticks on the :31 bar, or wait and secure about 20 or more on the :33 bar when it shot up to the R1 Pivot. After the 1st peak, it reversed from the HOD for 12 ticks, then popped up to hit the R1 Pivot. After trading sideways below the R1 Pivot for about 30 min, it rallied to a final peak of 86 ticks at 94.36. Then it reversed back to just above the 50 SMA about 20 min later.

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.09.13

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Jan 092013

1/9/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.9M
Actual: 1.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.43
1st Peak @ 93.18 – 1031 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 93.37 – 1032 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.68 – 1046 (16 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 93.12 – 1120 (50 min)
44 ticks

Notes: In spite of a nearly matching reading in crude inventories, gasoline and distillates both saw extremely large gains. This prompted a short move that crossed both the 100 and 200 SMAs and eclipsed the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 93.28 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 8 ticks as it eclipsed the PP Pivot. After the 1st peak, it reversed from the strong support of the 200 SMA and PP Pivot for 19 ticks. Then after about 5 min, it fought through and fell for a 2nd peak of 75 ticks in about 10 min. Then it reversed back up to cross the 50 SMA and chop sideways for 44 ticks in about 35 min.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.05.12

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Dec 052012

12/5/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.4M
Actual: -2.4M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.40
1st Peak @ 88.06 – 0531 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 88.55 – 0536 (6 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.46 – 0556 (26 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 88.34 – 0706 (96 min)
88 ticks

Notes: In spite of a moderate drop in crude inventories, gasoline and distillates both saw extremely large gains. This prompted a short move. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 88.29 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 10 – 20 ticks as it finished the :31 bar extending the LOD. After the 1st peak, it reversed in the following 5 min as the bulls rallied on the crude #s only, then fell for a rapid and dramatic 2nd peak of nearly 100 ticks. Then it reversed back up to cross all 3 major SMAs and eclipse the PP Pivot in the following hour for 88 ticks.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12

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Nov 282012

11/28/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: -0.3M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 85.69
1st Peak @ 85.51 – 0531 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 85.70 – 0531 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 86.45 – 0556 (26 min)
94 ticks

Notes: Small loss in oil inventories when a small gain was expected coupled with a big gain in gasoline and small drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 85.53 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it head for your stop loss in 3 sec. After the :31 bar settled lower, the long term reaction reversed long for nearly 100 ticks in 25 min, reacting more to the drop in crude and distillates, while also correcting from the big selloff in the last 10 hrs.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

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Nov 212012

11/21/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.8M
Actual: -1.5M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 87.54
1st Peak @ 87.68 – 0531 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 87.34 – 0532 (2 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Loss in oil inventories when a small gain was expected coupled with a small drop in gasoline and large drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 87.64 with no slippage, peak briefly 4 ticks higher, then seen it head for your stop loss in 5 sec. If you had been quick, you could have closed out with something less than 15 ticks, but not much. After the long pop of only 14 ticks, it reversed for 34 ticks to hit a short term area of support, then popped back up to just below the 200 SMA. Then it continued oscillating between the 200 SMA and lower extremes for the next hour. Relatively low magnitude on the swings, but still presents good opportunities to buy the dips (after the :43 and :05 bars) and sell the rips (any wick just below the 200 SMA) looking for 15 ticks.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12

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Nov 152012

11/15/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0600 HI time / 1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.5M
Actual: 1.1M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 86.07
1st Peak @ 86.27 – 0601 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 85.76 – 0602 (2 min)
51 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain in oil than expected coupled with a small drop in gasoline and large drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 86.22 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it head for your stop loss in 5 sec. If you had been quick, you could have closed out with something less than 15 ticks, but not much. After the long pop of only 20 ticks, it reversed for 51 ticks to hit the LOD, then popped back up for a double top. Then it continued oscillating between the 200 SMA and the LOD with the 50/100 SMAs and PP Pivot in the middle.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.07.12

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Nov 072012

11/7/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: 1.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.18
1st Peak @ 85.58 – 0533 (3 min)
60 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.80 – 0601 (31 min)
138 ticks

Reversal to 85.54 – 0611 (41 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Matching report with caused a short move after a long correction happened prior to the report release. The dollar was rallying significantly causing the overall bearish sentiment. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 86.02 with 6 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 10 ticks or more as it hovered at near 85.90. It continued lower to hit a 1st peak of 60 ticks on the :03 bar, then traded sideways for 7 min. After achieving a 2nd peak to nick the R2 Pivot at 84.80 for 138 ticks, it reversed for 74 ticks just above the 50 SMA.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.01.12

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Nov 012012

11/1/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9M
Actual: -2.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.70
1st Peak @ 86.95 – 0501 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.42 – 0509 (9 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 86.99 – 0519 (19 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report was moved from Wednesday at its normal time to Thursday at 30 min later due to hurricane Sandy. Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a smaller than normal long spike for 25 ticks in 1 min. It is likely the R1 Pivot provided stronger than normal resistance to restrict the upward momentum. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 86.83 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 5-10 ticks or more as it bobbed under the R1 Pivot. After 3 min of struggling to breach the R1 Pivot, it finally succeeded and climbed for a 2nd peak of 72 ticks on the :09 bar. Then it reversed for 43 ticks 10 min later on its way to the 50 SMA and continued to challenge each major SMA at varying intervals later.

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