10/17/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.4M
Actual: 2.9M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 92.57
1st Peak @ 92.40 – 0431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 92.65 – 0431 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.55 – 0511 (41 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 92.07 – 0540 (70 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventory when a lesser gain was expected caused slow developing short reaction that had to contend with the SMAs. Initially the short reaction could not challenge the 200 SMA and retreated upward. The second attempt was successful and triggered a fan for a 40 min selloff. Unfortunately with JOBB, you would have filled short at about 92.47, then gotten stopped out when it retreated up to 92.65. The selling impetus was not initially strong enough to punch through the 200 SMA. If you had been quick, I would advise moving the stop loss a few ticks higher to above the 50 SMA, then you would have been safe to ride the heat and catch the profit on the delayed short move. The 2nd peak claimed over 100 ticks in 41 min to bottom out just above the S1 Pivot, then the reversal retreated upward for 52 ticks in 30 min crossing the PP Pivot and the 50 SMA, but unable to reach the 100 SMA.

10/3/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.6M
Actual: -0.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.55
1st Peak @ 89.90 – 0432 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 88.64 – 0503 (33 min)
126 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a moderate long spike for 35 ticks in 2 min. The spike went against the grain of the bearish dive to hit the 50 SMA, but could not rally any higher. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 89.69 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 12-18 ticks as it hovered around 89.85 for several seconds. As the market was already in a downtrend, the reversal quickly took over and fell methodically over the next 30 min for 126 ticks.

9/19/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.2M
Actual: 8.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.79
1st Peak @ 92.21 – 0431 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 93.11 – 0441 (11 min)
90 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventory when nearly no change was expected caused a healthy short spike for 58 ticks in 1 min. This was the strongest gain and offset from the forecast in 5 months and due to a spontaneous release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the market had already sold off about $2 in the 90 min before the report. Still the drop carved out a new LOD and sustained most of the drop until the new bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 92.59 with 10 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 20 or more ticks as it hovered around 92.35 for several seconds. The market was already trading below all 3 major SMAs at the report release and testing the support of the S3 Pivot at the time of the release. The oversold condition and the strong support of the S3 Pivot prevented a much larger drop. After the spike on the :31 bar, it reversed strongly for 47 ticks on the :32 bar then another 43 ticks in the next 9 min, crossing the 50 SMA. Then it eventually stepped lower in the next several hours as the gravity sunk in.

9/6/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: -4.9M
Actual: -7.4M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.36
1st Peak @ 97.71 – 0501 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 96.83 – 0509 (9 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Large loss of inventory when a lesser loss was expected caused a moderate long spike for 35 ticks in 1 min that could not go higher or sustain the rise due to the very short term overbought condition in the market. With the R3 looming about 20 ticks above the top of the wick, even the bullish report could not motivate the bulls to keep buying. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 97.47, then had an opportunity to close out with about 17 ticks as it hovered just below the top of the wick for about 6 seconds. The market was already trading above all 3 major SMAs at the report release and strongly higher than the R2 Pivot. After the spike on the :01 bar, it reversed strongly for 88 ticks crossing the 100 and 50 SMAs in 8 min. Then it tried to muster the bulls for another rally, but barely eclipsed the 100 and 50 SMAs before succumbing to the resistance.

8/22/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1M
Actual: -5.4M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.73
1st Peak @ 97.18 – 0432 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 96.74 – 0435 (5 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Large loss of inventory when no change was expected caused a decent long spike for 45 ticks in 1 min. I included the large green :30 bar since the spike occurred at :59 seconds and after the JOBB bracket would have activated. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 96.88, then had an opportunity to get at least 10 ticks or more with ease. The market was already trading above all 3 major SMAs at the report release. Then it reversed strongly, leaving a large wick on the :32 bar and giving back all of the gains in 5 min. Then it oscillated upward for the next 90 min finding support between the 50 and 100 SMAs, and resistance between 97.35 and 97.50.