8/8/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.6M
Actual: -3.7M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 94.64
1st Peak @ 94.97 – 0431 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 93.86 – 0443 (13 min)
111 ticks

Notes: Moderately bigger loss of inventory than expected caused a decent long spike for 33 ticks in 1 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 94.78, then had an opportunity to get at least 15 ticks or more with ease. All the SMAs were below the trading action, so the spike only crossed the R1 Pivot. The reversal probably reacted to a larger overbought market and the failed expectation of a bigger drop in inventory. It dropped strongly for 111 ticks in 12 minutes to find solid support at the 200 SMA, with the PP Pivot just below.

7/25/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.1M
Actual: 2.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.48
1st Peak @ 87.60 – 0434 (4 min)
88 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.84 – 0506 (36 min)
164 ticks

Reversal to 87.49 – 0540 (70 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in supply when a tiny drop was expected caused a healthy downward spike and 2nd peak. With the market already selling off, the report went with the grain and continued the momentum. The 50 SMA was crossed at the origin, and the PP/S1 Pivots were also crossed enroute to the 1st peak. The 2nd peak eclipsed the S2 Pivot to bottom out at 86.84 in 36 min, then the reversal reclaimed 65 ticks 34 min later crossing the 50. With JOBB, I would have gotten out on 0434 bar with about 70 ticks on the board.

7/11/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.3M
Actual: -4.7M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 85.43
1st Peak @ 85.79 / Retrace to 85.16 – 0431 (1 min)
36 ticks / -27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.68 – 0501 (31 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 86.49 – 0653 (143 min)
181 ticks

Notes: More loss of inventory than expected of the crude, but a large gain in gasoline caused initial indecision. The gasoline numbers drove the short reaction that achieved a 2nd peak for 75 ticks in 31 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. The reversal was large and drawn out, claiming 181 ticks in over 2 hrs nearly reaching the R2 Pivot as the traders evaluated the crude numbers again.

6/27/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.5M
Actual: -0.1M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 80.71
1st Peak @ 80.45 / Reverse to 80.92 – 0431 (1 min)
-26 ticks / 22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 79.78 – 0516 (46 min)
93 ticks

Notes: Perfect recipe for an indecisive report…nearly matched the forecast and came in just 100k barrels away from the zero line. This caused a double wicker that went short then long. With JOBB, you would have filled short, then been stopped out instantly. This is the case the stop loss is meant to protect against. After the initial indecision, the market went short fighting the previous bullish trend and all 3 SMAs and the R2 Pivot, bottoming out just below the R1 Pivot. I would not trade after the results, even after the move started short, due to the unpredictability and the SMAs in the way.

6/13/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.6M
Actual: -0.2M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.12
1st Peak @ 83.56 – 0432 (2 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.01 – 0441 (11 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 83.40 – 0505 (35 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Smaller than expected drop in supply caused a strong and safe spike and 2nd peak. With the market rallying from a intraday low earlier due to the very bearish retail sales report, all the SMAs were below the price action and the market crossed the PP Pivot near the origin, then briefly climbed above the R1 Pivot on the 2nd peak for an impressive 89 ticks before the reversal reclaimed 61 ticks 24 min after the 2nd peak.