2/3/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 4.76M
Actual: 7.79M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.70M
Actual: 5.94M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.10M
Actual: -0.78M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.35
1st Peak @ 29.81 – 1030:34 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 30.18 – 1032 (2 min)
37 ticks

2nd Peak @ 29.74 – 1036 (6 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 31.23 – 1047 (17 min)
149 ticks

Pullback to 30.57 – 1051 (21 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 31.70 – 1102 (32 min)
113 ticks

Pullback to 30.98 – 1109 (39 min)
72 ticks

Expected Fill: 30.18 (short)
Slippage: 7 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 29.82 – 36 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 29.85 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable short spike on broad based supply sided news. After the small 2nd peak it found support on the OOD and reversed strongly. As it stepped higher, it used the 13/20 SMAs as support.

1/27/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.28M
Actual: 8.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.55M
Actual: 3.46M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.94M
Actual: -4.06M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 30.66
1st Peak @ 31.13 – 1030:24 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 30.66 – 1030:54 (1 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 31.76 – 1046 (16 min)
110 ticks

Reversal to 31.08 – 1057 (27 min)
68 ticks

Final Peak @ 32.84 – 1221 (111 min)
218 ticks

Reversal to 31.82 – 1319 (169 min)
102 ticks

Expected Fill: 30.83 (long)
Slippage: 7 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 31.12 – 29 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 31.02 (just above the 100/50 SMAs)

Notes: Another long reaction in spite of supply sided news. It found resistance above the 100/50 SMAs and S1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit as it hovered with at least 20 ticks. After a reversal, turned into a long trend over the next 2 hrs for over 200 ticks riding the 13 SMA.

2/12/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.65M
Actual: 3.27M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.05M
Actual: -1.85M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.28M
Actual: -0.73M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.20
1st Peak @ 101.03 – 1031 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 101.21 – 1032 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.85 – 1032 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.37 – 1046 (16 min)
52 ticks

Final Peak @ 100.64 – 1106 (36 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 100.92 – 1114 (44 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a lesser gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected and distillates saw a modest draw when a moderate draw was expected. The first time in a month that the distillate inventory beat the forecast caused a muted reaction initially that ended up in a bearish move overall. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse to fill either side of the bracket until 36 sec into the :31 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. It eventually fell for 17 ticks as it finally broke through the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks before falling for 35 ticks to cross the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 52 ticks to reach the HOD before it fell for a final peak of 56 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 28 ticks in 8 min and chopped sideways before trending lower.

2/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.24M
Actual: 0.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.99M
Actual: -2.81M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.23M
Actual: 0.34M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.37
1st Peak @ 102.70 – 1031 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 102.35 – 1032 (2 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.87 – 1038 (8 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 102.37 – 1058 (28 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Negligible gain in inventories when a greater gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected. The mixed news caused a 33 tick long spike on the :31 bar that was shortly sustained as it crossed the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 102.51 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up about 20 ticks and quickly retreat back to your fill point to hover. This is where a preselected profit target for 10-15 ticks would have been very prudent. Otherwise the best exit would have been with about 3-5 ticks later in the bar. After the :31 bar, the reversal took it down to the origin for 35 ticks as the distillate gain weighed in. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 50 ticks in the next 6 min before falling 50 ticks just before the top of the hour to the 200/100 SMAs. After that it achieved a double top 20 min later then backed off and chopped sideways.

3/12/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.15M
Actual: 6.18M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.03M
Actual: -5.23M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.87M
Actual: -0.53M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.51
1st Peak @ 98.20 – 1032 (2 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 98.91 – 1044 (14 min)
71 ticks

Pullback to 98.51 – 1052 (22 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 98.97 – 1101 (31 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.12 – 1116 (46 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expeced, while gasoline saw a large draw when a moderate draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a slightly larger modest draw was expected. The mixed news and large draw on gas with large gains on crude indicate refinery capacity is strong. This caused a short reaction of 31 ticks that crossed the 200 SMA and S3 Mid Pivot near the origin, then failed to reach the LOD as it found support at the same level as the low on the 0927 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 98.41 with no slippage, then seen it give you an opportunity to capture about 10 ticks when it hovered near the low. Then it reversed for 71 ticks in the next 12 min before falling to the 200 SMA 8 min later for 40 ticks. Then it reversed for 46 ticks 9 min later, before falling for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks that reached the LOD. After that it continued to step lower for the next 45 min.