Oil Inventory | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.06.12

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Jun 132012

6/6/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.1M
Actual: -0.1M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 86.00
1st Peak @ 85.56 – 0432 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 86.17 – 0447 (17 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Smaller than expected loss in supply and offset of the forecast caused a decisive drop for 44 ticks. After looking at the internals of the report, the Cushing inventories grew more than expected, causing the drop. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 85.86 and had an opportunity for at least 15 ticks. The spike crossed the 50 SMA about halfway down the path of the :31 bar then the R2 Pivot on the :32 bar. After bottoming out 15 ticks lower than the R2 Pivot, the reversal reclaimed 61 ticks.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

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May 312012

5/31/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2M
Actual: 2.2M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.62
1st Peak @ 86.38 – 0501 (1 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.28 – 0506 (6 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 86.68 – 0510 (10 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Medium gain in supply and offset of the forecast caused a relatively small but safe spike and 2nd peak. With the market selling off dramatically before the report, all the SMAs were above the price action and the market was reluctant to go much lower. The 2nd peak tested the S2 Pivot before bouncing long into the reversal.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.23.12

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May 232012

5/23/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8M
Actual: 0.9M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.79
1st Peak @ 90.44 – 0431 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 90.73 – 0435 (5 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.18 – 0450 (20 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 90.63 – 0456 (26 min)
45 ticks

Notes: Flat result overall as it matched the forecast and was near 0. With the market in a moderate downtrend prior to the report, the report essentially carried on with the trend. No SMAs were crossed, but the S1 Pivot provided resistance on the :30 and :31 bars to keep it from going long. With JOBB, you would have seen the long wick come near your stop, then back off. After no fill for 10 sec, close out. The drop did not occur until 30 sec into the :31 bar. This would have been safe, but after the initial dull reaction, the market has no predictable conviction. The 2nd Peak claimed another 26 ticks to end the overall downtrend. Then the reversal rose up to hit the 50 SMA.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.16.12

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May 162012

5/16/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5M
Actual: 2.1M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.28
1st Peak @ 93.63 – 0431 (1 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.16 – 0446 (16 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 92.78 – 0509 (39 min)
138 ticks

Notes: Small gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a relatively small initial spike. With the market in a slight up trend before the report, all the SMAs were below the price action. The initial spike was reined in by the crossing of the S1 Pivot halfway up to its peak. With JOBB you would have filled long. The peak of 93.63 was hit early in the candle, but it rose to that level again twice so a sell limit placed near the top of the wick would have filled. When the :32 bar did not drop significantly, it is going for a higher 2nd peak. The reversal fought through all the SMAs and the S1/S2 Pivots to make a double bottom 20 ticks below the S2 Pivot.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.09.12

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May 092012

5/9/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.0M
Actual: 3.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.38
1st Peak @ 95.63 – 0431 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.53 – 0447 (17 min)
115 ticks

Reversal to 95.91 – 0502 (32 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a strong long reaction. This is the opposite reaction to the report as expected, but more than likely due to the bounce of the 95.17 level a few minutes before the report which was a test of a low not seen since December. With JOBB you would have filled long and been stopped on the small reversalIt sliced through all three major SMAs along with the S1 Pivot with ease. The reversal came back to the 200 SMA to just nick it.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.02.12

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May 022012

5/2/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.3M
Actual: 2.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 105.54
1st Peak @ 105.31 – 0431 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.28 – 0437 (7 min)
26 ticks (3x bottom)

Reversal to 105.61 – 0506 (36 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a relatively meager and controlled downward spike. No SMAs or Pivots were crossed. After the initial spike, the market recovered most of the dip, then fell for a incremental 2nd Peak of 3 more ticks. Then it went sideways for 20 min before climbing and fighting through the 50 and 100 SMAs for the reversal.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.18.12

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Apr 182012

4/18/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5M
Actual: 3.9M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 103.65
1st Peak @ 103.95 / Reverse to 103.54 – 0431 (1 min)
30 ticks / -11 ticks

Notes: Very volatile and erratic report that saw large oscillations due to a gain in crude supplies, but a draw on the products of 2.9 and 3.7 M barrels. This is responsible for the behavior. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 103.91then stopped immediately with a 15+ tick loss as the whipsaw began. After you see a first candle with a wick and a tail, it is a good play to place a limit order on either side of that as the price will swing again in a longer period of a few minutes. In this case a buy limit at 103.50 and a sell limit a few ticks above the 200 SMA at about 104.00 would be a good trade.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.04.12

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Apr 042012

4/4/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.1M
Actual: 9.0M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 102.80
1st Peak @ 101.87 – 0432 (2 min)
93 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.08 – 0521 (51 min)
172 ticks

Reversal to 101.92 – 0545 (75 min)
84 ticks

Notes: Very large gain in supply and offset of the forecast caused a big downward spike that evolved into a downward fan for almost an hour. Initial spike crossed the 100 SMA at the origin then encountered no support buffers achieving a peak of 93 ticks on the :32 candle. After 2 attempts to reverse with the inability to cross the 13 or get the MACD to cross, it would be okay to enter a sell on the :49 candle when it dropped and ride the wave until the big red candle at 0503. It would be safe to buy at the S3 line to play the reversal and ride it until the 13 crossed the 20 and the MACD crossed around 0555.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12

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Mar 282012

3/28/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.8M
Actual: 7.1M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 105.27
1st Peak @ 105.40 / Reverse to 104.92 – 0431 (1 min)
13 ticks / -35 ticks

Notes: Very volatile and erratic report that saw violent 40 tick swings in less than a second with over 5000 contracts exchanged in the :31 candle alone. With JOBB you would have filled short prematurely on the :30 candle then stopped immediately with a 15 tick loss as the whisaw began. It is unclear why this report reacted this way, but this happens about 1-2 times out of every 10. The CL had sold off 135 ticks in the 3 hrs prior to the report, so it could have been oversold.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.14.12

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Mar 142012

3/14/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.2M
Actual: 1.8M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 106.56
1st Peak @ 107.02 – 0432 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 106.58 – 0452 (22 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Spiked upward without crossing any SMAs, so despite the oscillations, when you see the wick on the 0431 candle, setup a limit exit order near the top of the wick and wait for the market to hit it. In this case the spike bled over into the 0432 candle and did not really reverse until the 0434 candle due to no SMAs to pull it back. Eventually it fell, but the reversal stalled and took an unusually long 22 min. The market dramatically fell for the next 30 minutes, but this was not due to the influence of the report.

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