4/2/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.09M
Actual: -2.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.09M
Actual: -1.57M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.10M
Actual: 0.55M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 99.26
1st Peak @ 99.38 – 1030:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 98.97 – 1033 (3 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 99.25 – 1034 (4 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 98.86 – 1038 (8 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 99.26 – 1052 (22 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly larger modest draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a minimal change was expected. The mixed news caused an indecisive reaction with a quick long burst of 12 ticks followed by a reversal that would have stopped you out after 5 sec. Notice on the chart the trend channel that was established before the report and how the long reaction broke out of the trend channel and quickly reversed as it also crossed the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 99.36 with no slippage, then seen it back off and hit the stop with no slippage 5 sec later. If you were fast you might have been able to get out earlier with 8-10 ticks loss. The reversal continued to fall to cross the S1 Pivot and hit the bottom of the trend channel on the :33 bar. then it pulled back to the 50/200 SMAs for 28 ticks, before falling again for 39 ticks 4 min later. It was able to penetrate the lower trend line, but pulled back unable to sustain. It continued to cycle until about 1130 when a decisive long move broke out of the channel.

Caption for 4/16:
4/16/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.25M
Actual: 10.01M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.67M
Actual: -0.15M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.37M
Actual: -1.28M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 104.51
1st Peak @ 104.13 – 1030:00 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 104.44 – 1033 (3 min)
31 ticks

Final Peak @ 103.12 – 1148 (78 min)
139 ticks

Reversal to 103.55 – 1208 (98 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Very large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. The news was mixed but the strong crude gain drove the action without enough on the opposite side to counter it. This caused a 38 tick short spike immediately that collided with the R1 Pivot and backed off. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 104.30 with 11 ticks of slippage due to the large immediate spike, then had an opportunity to exit with up to 15 ticks with a profit target or 8 ticks manually up to 13 sec into the :31 bar. This is a different case with the extremely strong crude gain, so any follow on orders should only be selling reversal peaks. It reversed for 31 ticks to the 13 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot on the :33 bar, then began to trickle lower, but was unable to conquer the R1 Pivot until about 45 min after the report. Then it fell off a cliff for about 100 ticks to the S1 Pivot in about 30 min. After that it reversed for 43 ticks in the next 20 min to the 50 SMA.

4/30/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.37M
Actual: 1.70M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.60M
Actual: 1.56M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.58M
Actual: 1.94M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.49
1st Peak @ 99.79 – 1030:35 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 99.60 – 1032 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.90 – 1037 (7 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 99.63 – 1043 (13 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting with the gas inventories gaining while the crude stocks fell. Usually this indicates a surprise increase in refinery production. This resulted in a 30 tick long spike that rose to cross the 50 and 100 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen a delayed reaction as the movement would have been contained within the bracket for 13 sec. The prudent course of action would be to cancel the order, but if you left it on the chart, it would have worked out in your favor for a fill long at about 99.59 with no slippage, then given you an opportunity to exit with about 10 ticks below the 100 SMA where it hovered. After a reversal of 19 ticks that retreated to the 50 SMA, it rose for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in the next 5 min. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 6 min to the 20 SMA. After that it rose for a double top, chopped sideways, then fell back to the S3 Mid Pivot about an hour after the report.

5/14/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.10M
Actual: 0.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.14M
Actual: -0.77M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.53M
Actual: -1.12M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 102.33
1st Peak @ 102.06 – 1031:43 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 102.65 – 1049 (19 min)
59 ticks

Pullback to 102.32 – 1126 (56 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting, but the crude figures drove the reaction. This resulted in a 27 tick short spike that fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would filled short at 102.23 with no slippage on a relatively tame and slow move. With the 100 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot 1 tick above the fill point, it briefly struggled to fall for about 20 sec, then fell for another 18 ticks into the :32 bar as it reached the R1 Pivot. An exit at the 200 SMA at about 102.12 would have been prudent for about 10 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 59 ticks in the next 17 min as the gas results drove the action. Then it pulled back for 33 ticks in the next 37 min to the 100 SMA.

5/29/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: 0.48M
Actual: 1.66M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.28M
Actual: -1.80M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.75M
Actual: -0.20M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.06
1st Peak @ 103.34 – 1100:46 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 103.12 – 1109 (9 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.58 – 1138 (38 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 103.33 – 1154 (54 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting, but the draw on the gas drove the reaction. This resulted in a 28 tick long spike that rose to cross the PP Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot as it extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen a delayed rise that would have filled long right at 11 sec into the bar if not cancelled. Then it would have struggled with the PP Pivot for several seconds before eventually breaking through long after 45 sec allowing up to 17 ticks to be captured as the bar expired. Then it reversed for 25 ticks in the next 8 min back to the 20 SMA and PP Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks in the next 30 min. After that it reversed 25 ticks to the 50 SMA in 16 min.