6/4/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.27M
Actual: -3.43M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.16M
Actual: 0.21M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.43M
Actual: 2.01M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 103.51
1st Peak @ 103.69 – 1030:00 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 103.44 – 1030:52 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 103.58 – 1031:16 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 103.22 – 1043 (13 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting as the drawdown on the crude contributed to the build up on the distillates, causing indecision. This resulted in a 18 tick long spike that rose to cross the R3 Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 103.64 with 3 ticks of slippage. It would have hovered near the fill point for about 15 sec within 5 ticks of breakeven before reversing. This is a case we warn about in the alert where hovering in excess of 5 sec is often a precursor for a reversal. In this case the prudent course of action would be exiting with about 3-5 ticks loss as it hovered. The alternative would have seen it march toward an unadjusted stop at 45 sec. After the reversal, it pulled back for 14 ticks in the next 24 sec, then reversed for 36 ticks after crossing all 3 Major SMAs.

6/18/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.65M
Actual: -0.58M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.11M
Actual: 0.79M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.25M
Actual: 0.44M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 106.17
1st Peak @ 105.81 – 1031:39 (2 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 105.98 – 1033 (3 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.60 – 1037 (7 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 106.06 – 1049 (19 min)
46 ticks

Final Peak @ 105.36 – 1122 (52 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 105.93 – 1212 (102 min)
57 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching negligible draw in inventories, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a near matching negligible gain. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts, but they were in line to cause a slow developing short reaction. This resulted in a 36 tick short spike that fell to cross the HOD over 2 bars. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, your short order would have filled at 106.07 with no slippage then seen it chop around your fill point and the PP Pivot for about 30 sec before it fell to eclipse the LOD. You could be conservative and look to exit near breakeven or with a small profit, but with consistent results to cause a bearish reaction, it would be prudent to wait for the subsequent drop and target the LOD for about 20 ticks. After that it reversed for 17 ticks on the :33 bar, then fell for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 46 ticks to the 50 SMA and OOD in the next 12 min. After that it fell for a final peak of 24 more ticks to reach the S1 Pivot. Then the bulls took over on the reversal of 57 ticks in the next hour that reached the 200 SMA.

7/2/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.23M
Actual: -3.16M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.36M
Actual: -1.24M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.76M
Actual: 0.98M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 104.66
1st Peak @ 105.13 – 1033 (3 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 104.91 – 1038 (8 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 105.53 – 1103 (33 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 104.32 – 1220 (110 min)
121 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a near matching negligible. Overall, the results were bullish for oil with the gas and crude consistent and driving the action. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen your long entry fill at about 104.78 with 2 ticks of slippage then struggle with the 200 SMA for several seconds. In this situation, given the decisive results, it would be wise to wait for a larger reaction since it was stalling only 20 ticks from the origin. The S1 Mid Pivot would have made a great target for about 20 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 22 ticks to the 13 SMA after 5 min, then climbed for a final peak of 40 more ticks in the next 25 min as it eclipsed the PP Pivot and HOD. Then it reversed slowly and methodically for 121 ticks in about 80 min back to through the origin and extending the LOD.

7/16/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.09M
Actual: -7.53M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual: 0.17M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.76M
Actual: 2.53M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.73
1st Peak @ 100.34 – 1031:46 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 99.89 – 1054 (24 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.41 – 1118 (48 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 99.92 – 1147 (77 min)
49 ticks

Notes: large draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a greater gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a lesser gain was expected. Overall, the large draw on the crude drove the results as we saw a large long spike of 61 ticks over 2 bars that crossed the R3 Mid Pivot. It kept steadily climbing with the only real resistance barrier being the HOD. After the third challenge, it rose higher to attack the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 99.87 with 4 ticks of slippage. Given the strong results, you could have played it conservative and exited at about 100.05 or waited for the impulse to go another 20 or so ticks. This would have allowed up to 40+ ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed for 45 ticks in 24 min to the 50 SMA. Then it rallied for a minor 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after another 24 min before falling 49 ticks in about 30 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

7/30/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.47M
Actual: -3.70M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.26M
Actual: 0.37M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.51M
Actual: 0.79M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 101.44
1st Peak @ 101.67 – 1030:58 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 101.01 – 1034 (4 min)
66 ticks

Continued Reversal to 100.76 – 1041 (11 min)
91 ticks

Pullback to 101.25 – 1053 (23 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected. Overall, the reaction should have been decisively long with all products showing less supply, but that was not the case as it struggles to achieve 23 ticks then collapsed after hitting the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 101.54 with no slippage. It rose to hover briefly around 101.58, then fell to the 100 SMA after 30 sec before climbing to hi the HOD. The stop would hav absorbed the heat, so after seeing the initial reaction, look for a conservative target between the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD for about 7-10 ticks. After the :31 bar, it fell dramatically for 66 ticks in 3 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it fell another 25 ticks after a brief pullback to reach the PP Pivot and LOD. After that it pulled back for 49 ticks in 12 min to reach the 50 SMA.