8/13/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.03M
Actual: 1.40M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.06M
Actual: -1.16M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.21M
Actual: -2.42M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 97.23
1st Peak @ 96.93 – 1031:07 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 97.11 – 1032 (2 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.75 – 1113 (43 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 97.12 – 1136 (66 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a near matching modest draw, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a dull reaction initially that failed to launch more than 10 ticks away from the origin until 12 sec into the bar. It eventually crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen all movement contained inside of the bracket in the first 10 sec, so cancel the order on the lack of conviction. We see a fill would have happened short at 97.13 with no slippage, then seen some heat before continuing to fall late in the :31 bar and into the :32 bar to allow about 18 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 18 ticks in the next minute back to the S1 Mid Pivot. It stepped down to a final peak of 18 more ticks, crossing the S1 Pivot after the top of the hour. Then it reversed for 37 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA about an hour after the report.

8/27/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.29M
Actual: -2.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -0.96M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.44M
Actual: 1.25M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.16
1st Peak @ 93.98 – 1030:00 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 94.21 – 1030:47 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.76 – 1034 (4 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 94.19 – 1047 (17 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a near matching modest draw, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a conflicted reaction initially that fell 18 ticks in the first sec to cross the 100 SMA then chopped around the fill point before reversing above the origin late in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 94.14 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to 9 ticks of heat and fall back to hover between 2-4 ticks of profit for about 5 sec. Look to exit there as the reaction has several barriers to contend with, it failed to sustain the drop, and none of the product results has significant deviation from the forecast. The initial reaction does present other opportunities. Look to buy the dips and sell the peaks. The 2nd Peak to 93.76 was a great long entry as it fell 30 ticks in about 30 sec, crossed the PP Pivot, and pulled up before hitting the LOD. Look to exit when it comes back to the SMAs. On the other hand, notice the 4 attempts in the past hour to climb above the 94.15 area failed, so shorting the 47 bar would be wise. Look to exit around 94.00 or be patient and ride out the longer term short move that took over.

9/10/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.11M
Actual: -0.97M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.16M
Actual: 2.38M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.57M
Actual: 4.09M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.09
1st Peak @ 91.54 – 1033 (3 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 91.71 – 1053 (23 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 91.22 – 1129 (59 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 91.74 – 1154 (84 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Negligible draw in inventories when a slightly greater draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a healthy gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a decisive short move that took 3 bars to fall 55 ticks as it stated of the 13/20 SMAs of a downtrend and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 91.95 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it slowly step lower. This is a case where patience is wise with all products in the green and gas / distillates with large margins. Up to 35+ ticks could have been captured late in the :33 bar. Then it reversed 17 ticks in the next 20 min before falling for a final peak of 32 more ticks in the next 36 min to cross the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 52 ticks in 25 min as it crossed the 100 SMA.

9/24/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.39M
Actual: -4.27M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.09M
Actual: -0.41M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.59M
Actual: 0.82M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.40
1st Peak @ 91.65 – 1030:49 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 91.44 – 1033 (3 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 92.14 – 1041 (11 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 91.20 – 1107 (37 min)
94 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a lesser draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a lesser gain was expected. This caused a long reaction that saw sizeable retracement due to crossing the 100/200 SMAs and PP Pivot all on top each other. It managed to climb 25 ticks and peak late in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled long at about 91.51 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover on your fill point, climb, fall, and rally again late in the bar. This is a case where patience would be good since the larger draw on the crude will drive the reaction and the move was held back by crossing the strong resistance barriers allowing an exit with about 12 ticks. Eventually, it will break free and rally. It would also be wise to buy on a dip, either when it fell back to the SMAs in the :31 bar, or after the reversal on the :33 bar as a 2nd peak is likely. Look for a target of the R1 Mid Pivot or HOD for 40-50 ticks. It climbed 49 more ticks on the 2nd peak to nearly reach the R1 Pivot after 8 min, then reversed strongly for 94 ticks in 26 min, nearly reaching the S1 Mid Pivot.

10/8/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.53M
Actual: 5.02M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.00M
Actual: 1.18M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.07M
Actual: 0.44M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.35
1st Peak @ 87.23 – 1030:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 87.51 – 1030:17 (1 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.83 – 1034 (4 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 87.45 – 1049 (19 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest loss was expected. This caused a small short reaction that was briefly sustained as it crossed the 50 SMA. It fell 12 ticks, then reversed 28 ticks to the 100 SMA after only 17 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 87.25 with no slippage, then seen it hover around your fill point for 11 sec before reversing. This is a unique case with all products gaining where we would expect a large short reaction, not a muted shortly sustained move. The safe move here would be to exit between 2 ticks of profit and 5 ticks loss, then look to place a manual short entry after a reversal. It reversed 28 ticks in about 6 sec, then hovered near the 100 SMA for about 25 sec before falling. It achieved a 40 tick 2nd peak in the next 3 min to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it reversed 62 ticks in 15 min back to the 100 SMA. More than likely the selloff of oil in the last hour and since the session open contributed to the reluctance of the market to fall on the supply driven news.