10/29/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.37M
Actual: 2.06M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.99M
Actual: -1.24M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.16M
Actual: -5.29M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.16
1st Peak @ 82.41 – 1030:01 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 82.23 – 1030:44 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 82.56 – 1033 (3 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 82.08 – 1044 (14 min)
48 ticks

Final Peak @ 82.88 – 1130 (60 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 82.41 – 1206 (96 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly larger modest draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a healthy draw when a modest draw was expected. This caused a decisive long spike of 25 ticks immediately that recoiled after crossing all 3 Major SMAs on top of each other. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 82.29 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hover and fall about 10 ticks after 5 sec. In this case the best play is to place a profit target a handful of ticks above the SMAs while also moving your stop up to about 82.20 (-9 ticks). You would have secured a few ticks as it made a push upward later in the bar, or on the :32/33 bars as it climbed another 15 ticks. After that it reversed 48 ticks in 11 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it climbed for a delayed final peak of 32 more ticks after 46 min to extend the HOD, before reversing 47 ticks in 36 min to the 100 SMA. We see the 3 min reversal would have been a great play here to sell below the R3 Mid Pivot, then look for 15-20 ticks.

11/13/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.75M
Actual: -1.74M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.52M
Actual: 1.81M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.33M
Actual: -2.80M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 75.75
1st Peak @ 75.88 – 1100:14 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 75.32 – 1100:54 (1 min)
56 ticks

Pullback to 75.64 – 1110 (10 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 75.16 – 1128 (28 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a larger moderate draw when a moderate draw was expected. This caused a dull reaction initially that took 12 sec to break outside of 10 ticks away from the origin. You should have cancelled the order after 10 sec with no impulse and we see a failure to do that would have presented an undesirable fill long just before it reversed. It peaked at 13 ticks after 14 sec to reach the 100 SMA, then reversed 56 ticks late in the :01 bar to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it pulled back 32 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA. After that it chopped sideways on the S3 Mid Pivot then reversed 48 ticks in 18 min.

11/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.47M
Actual: 1.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.82M
Actual: 1.83M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.55M
Actual: -1.65M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 73.76
1st Peak @ 73.39 – 1031:43 (2 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 73.68 – 1035 (5 min)
29 ticks

Continued Reversal to 74.24 – 1128 (58 min)
85 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a matching modest gain, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a decisive short move of 37 ticks with a 23 tick immediate spike followed by a retreat then another drop to fall another 14 ticks into the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 73.63 with 3 ticks of slippage. It would have backed off then fallen to hover just below the 50/100 SMAs. Look to exit there safely with 3-5 ticks. It was able to fall later and sustain a larger drop into the :32 bar, but that was after a reversal and not expected. After the peak it reversed 29 ticks in 3 min, crossing the 50/100 SMAs, then continued to reversed for another 56 ticks in the next 53 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot.

12/10/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -2.24M
Actual: 1.45M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.58M
Actual: 8.20M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.92M
Actual: 5.58M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 62.04
1st Peak @ 61.54 – 1030:46 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 61.82 – 1033 (3 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 60.88 – 1039 (9 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 61.62 – 1101 (31 min)
74 ticks

Final Peak @ 60.43 – 1147 (77 min)
161 ticks

Reversal to 61.06 – 1204 (94 min)
63 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a very large gain when a moderate gain was expected, and distillates saw a large gain when a negligible gain was expected. With all of the news strongly exceeding the supply estimates, this caused a decisive short move of 50 ticks in 46 sec followed by a reversal of 28 ticks to the old LOD position in 2 min. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 61.90 with 4 ticks of slippage. With the results, be patient for it to keep falling. An exit around 61.60 would have yielded 30 ticks, but if you stayed in for the 2nd peak, you could have had a lot more. It fell for a 2nd peak of 66 more ticks in 6 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 74 ticks in 22 min to the 50 SMA before falling for a final peak of 45 more ticks in 46 min to nearly reach the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed 63 ticks in 17 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

1/14/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.42M
Actual: 5.39M
Gasoline
Forecast: 3.47M
Actual: 3.17M
Distillates
Forecast: 2.13M
Actual: 2.93M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 46.35
1st Peak @ 45.62 – 1031:34 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 46.40 – 1045 (15 min)
78 ticks

Pullback to 45.85 – 1104 (34 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly less moderate gain when a moderate gain was expected, and distillates saw a slightly larger moderate gain when a moderate gain was expected. With the collective news mostly supply sided, this caused a decisive short move of 73 ticks in about 1.5 min that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs, the OOD, and R1 Mid Pivot and reached the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 46.20 with 5 ticks of slippage. With the results, be patient for it to keep falling. Wait for the :31 bar to end and then a hovering pattern to exit. This would have allowed an exit below the 200 SMA for at least 35 ticks. After the peak it reversed 48 ticks back to beyond the origin to cross the 50 SMA in 13 min. Then it pulled back 55 ticks in 19 min to the 200 SMA. Then it chopped sideways.