1/22/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.62M
Actual: 10.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.30M
Actual: 0.59M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.25M
Actual: -3.27M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 47.02
1st Peak @ 46.35 – 1101:36 (1 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 46.66 – 1105 (5 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 46.08 – 1108 (8 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 46.63 – 1127 (27 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Very strong gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected. With the collective news mostly supply sided, this caused a decisive short move of 67 ticks in about 1.5 min that started on the descending 13 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 46.87 with 5 ticks of slippage. It kept descending without much hovering until reaching the area of the S2 Pivot. This would have allowed up to 50 ticks to be captured. After a 31 tick reversal in 3 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 27 more ticks in 3 min to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 55 ticks in 19 min.

2/4/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.47M
Actual: 6.33M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.07M
Actual: 2.34M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.83M
Actual: 1.79M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 50.82
1st Peak @ 50.20 – 1030:57 (1 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 50.46 – 1035 (5 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 50.05 – 1037 (7 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 50.66 – 1045 (15 min)
61 ticks

Final Peak @ 50.01 – 1104 (34 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 50.66 – 1117 (47 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. This caused a short move that started on the S1 Pivot and immediately fell 27 ticks and hovered for about 8 sec before retracing 36 ticks. Then it fell to the peak for another 35 ticks as the :31 bar expired. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 50.68 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hover between breakeven and about 7 ticks of profit before it retraced to hit the unmoved to stop at 50.83 for a 15 tick loss. This was unfortunate as all the news was consistently bearish and the report decisively fell after the retracement. After the spike, it reversed 26 ticks in 4 min to the old LOD position before falling for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks. Then it reversed 61 ticks in 8 min to the 50 SMA before falling for a final peak of 4 more ticks in 19 min. Then it reversed 65 ticks in 13 min and continued to chop. As before a strategy of selling the highs would have been prudent and profitable. As before a strategy of selling the highs would have been prudent with the strong supply side results.

2/19/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 3.23M
Actual: 7.72M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.17M
Actual: 0.49M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.05M
Actual: -3.81M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 50.41
1st Peak @ 51.60 – 1101:49 (1 min)
119 ticks

Reversal to 50.61 – 1108 (8 min)
99 ticks

2nd Peak @ 52.39 – 1147 (47 min)
198 ticks

Reversal to 51.70 – 1155 (55 min)
69 ticks

Continued Reversal to 51.32 – 1237 (97 min)
107 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a lower negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected. This caused a large long spike that started on the 100 SMA and climbed for a total of 119 ticks in nearly 2 min as it crossed the major SMAs near the origin, the OOD, and extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 50.55 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it slowly step higher with minimal drawback to allow over 100 ticks to be captured with patience. After that it reversed strongly as it fell 99 ticks in 7 min to the 50 SMA. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 79 more ticks in 39 min as it eclipsed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 69 ticks in 8 min to nearly reach the S2 Pivot and another 38 ticks in 42 min as it crossed the 100 SMA and nearly reached the OOD.

3/4/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 4.16M
Actual: 10.30M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.87M
Actual: 0.05M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.69M
Actual: -1.72M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 50.54
1st Peak @ 49.88 – 1030:12 (1 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 50.19 – 1030:45 (1 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 49.75 – 1038 (8 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 50.17 – 1044 (14 min)
42 ticks

Final Peak @ 49.60 – 1112 (42 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 50.00 – 1139 (69 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a moderate draw was expected. This caused a large short spike that started on the 50 SMA and fell for a total of 66 ticks in 12 sec as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 50.38 with 6 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it chop/ hover around the S1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit there with about 40 ticks. After that it reversed 31 ticks in the next 33 sec to the PP Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in 7 min. Then it reversed 42 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA before falling for a final peak of 15 more ticks in 28 min as it eclipsed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 40 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in 27 min.

3/18/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.75M
Actual: 9.62M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.88M
Actual: -4.47M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: 0.38M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 44.56
1st Peak @ 44.94 – 1030:00 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 44.04 – 1031:12 (2 min)
90 ticks

Pullback to 44.68 – 1049 (19 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 44.14 – 1104 (34 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected. This caused an initial long spike of 48 ticks that started just below the S1 Pivot and climbed to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD immediately, then reverse just after that. It rose on the big draw on gas before reversing course on the crude figures. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 44.75 with 9 ticks of slippage. A programmed profit target of anything less that about 18-20 ticks would have filled, otherwise you would have seen the profit ebb away then hit your stop loss after 11 sec with no intervention. If your profit target was missed or you did not use one, be sure to exit as you see it backing off to hedge. It reversed for a total of 90 ticks in about 72 sec all the way to the LOD. Then it pulled back 64 ticks to eclipse the S1 Pivot in 17 min before reversing 54 ticks to cross all 3 Major Pivots and the S2 Mid Pivot in 15 min. As usual when a report is initially indecisive, you can count on it to be a roller coaster for about an hour or so. Take advantage of that and buy the lows / sell the highs.