4/1/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.19M
Actual: 4.77M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.94M
Actual: -4.26M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.29M
Actual: 1.33M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 47.98
1st Peak @ 48.33 – 1030:09 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 47.91 – 1032 (2 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 49.17 – 1051 (21 min)
119 ticks

Reversal to 48.79 – 1057 (27 min)
38 ticks

Final Peak @ 50.45 – 1319 (169 min)
247 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a slightly lower gain was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a moderate long spike due to the gas results that started on PP Pivot / 13 SMA the 20 SMA and rose for a total of 35 ticks in 9 sec as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 48.10 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hover several ticks above the R1 Mid Pivot for 13 sec to allow an exit with about 20 ticks. After that it reversed 42 ticks in the next min to the 50 SMA / PP Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 84 more ticks in 19 min to reach the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 6 min to the R2 Mid Pivot before settling into a long fan that gained another 128 ticks in the next 2.5 hrs.

4/15/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.06M
Actual: 1.29M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.20M
Actual: -2.07M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.89M
Actual: 2.02M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 53.72
1st Peak @ 54.85 – 1031:16 (2 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 54.55 – 1033 (3 min)
30 ticks

Final Peak @ 55.87 – 1140 (70 min)
215 ticks

Reversal to 55.44 – 1155 (85 min)
43 ticks

Notes: First time since early January that the crude figures came in short of the forecast. Modest gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a choppy setup just before the launch to result in the JOBB pending orders cancelled. Then it climbed 113 ticks in 76 sec, crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the R2 Pivot near the pinnacle as it extended the HOD. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 1 min before stepping higher for a final peak of 102 more ticks in a little over an hour to the R3 Pivot. After that it reversed 43 ticks in 15 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA. Even with the JOBB orders rejected, recognize the bullish opportunity and jump in long manually late on the first peak, and/or after the initial reversal for the 2nd peak.

4/29/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.30M
Actual: 1.91M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.22M
Actual: 1.71M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.17M
Actual: -0.70M
INDECISIVE…UPWARD FAN
Started @ In between 57.31 and 57.20
Premature Spike to 57.19 – 1029:59 (0 min)

1st Peak @ 57.82 – 1030:22 (1 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 57.60 – 1030:55 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 58.19 – 1036 (6 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 57.84 – 1046 (16 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 59.33 – 1250 (140 min)
214 ticks

Reversal to 58.92 – 1308 (158 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a slightly higher modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest gain was expected. This caused a premature short move at 1029:57 for about 17 ticks as the bracket would have established. If the bracket anchor point was 57.29 or higher, you would have been filled short, then stopped as it reversed upon the news release. If your anchor was lower, you would have filled long with higher slippage, but would have been able to profit off of the report . Since the results are variable, we will categorize this as an indecisive report. After the 63 tick spike 1st peak, it reversed 22 ticks in 33 sec before climbing for a 2nd peak of 37 more ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 35 ticks in 10 min to the 20 SMA before climbing another 114 ticks in about 2 hrs to the R3 Pivot for the final peak. After that it reversed 41 ticks to the 50 SMA.

5/13/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.39M
Actual: -2.19M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.43M
Actual: -1.14M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.83M
Actual: -2.50M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 61.47
1st Peak @ 61.85 – 1030:41 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 60.97 – 1035 (5 min)
88 ticks

Pullback to 61.35 – 1041 (11 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 60.59 – 1052 (22 min)
76 ticks

Pullback to 60.98 – 1110 (40 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Second week that the crude figures saw a draw. Modest draw in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a long spike of 38 ticks that moved 2 sec premature and peaked 41 sec into the bar at the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 61.58 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would have quickly hit the R2 Mid Pivot, backed off, then reclaimed the peak with a few more ticks. A 23 tick profit target or less would have filled early, otherwise, look to exit near the R2 Mid Pivot where it hovered with about 20 ticks. After that it reversed 88 ticks in 4 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot before pulling back 38 ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 76 ticks in 11 min before pulling back 39 ticks in 18 min.

5/28/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: -0.86M
Actual: -2.80M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.43M
Actual: -3.31M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.32M
Actual: 1.12M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 56.66
1st Peak @ 57.30 – 1100:00 (1 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 56.81 – 1104 (4 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 57.44 – 1133 (33 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 56.85 – 1202 (62 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a long spike of 64 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot in 1 sec. Then it backed off and oscillated between 56.90 and the S1 Pivot for 2 min and eventually reversed to the 50/100 SMAs and S2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 56.81 with 5 ticks of slippage. Then it would have peaked and backed off to hover in the vicinity of the 200 SMA for 12 sec. Look to exit there with about 25-30 ticks. After the reversal, it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks in 29 min. Then it reversed 59 ticks in 29 min to nearly reach the S2 Pivot.