6/10/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.72M
Actual: -6.81M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.28M
Actual: -2.94M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.34M
Actual: 0.87M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 61.25
1st Peak @ 61.62 – 1030:00 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 61.27 – 1030:07 (1 min)
35 ticks

Continued swings between 61.30 – 61.62 – to 1038 (8 min)

Reversal to 60.81 – 1042 (12 min)
81 ticks

Pullback to 61.29 – 1056 (26 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 60.48 – 1153 (83 min)
81 ticks

Notes: Large draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. This caused a long spike of 37 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs and rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R3 Mid Pivot then collapsed a few sec later. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 61.41 with 6 ticks of slippage. Then it would have peaked and backed off to hover just above the fill point for 5 sec before reversing to the origin. If you were quick you could have exited with a handful of ticks, otherwise you would have been stopped with a 15 tick loss after 7 sec. It continued to chop between 61.62 an d61.30 for 7 more min before reversing 81 tic in 4 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 48 ticks in 14 min to the 50 SMA before reversing 81 ticks to the R1 Pivot in 57 min.

6/24/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.10M
Actual: -4.93M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.30M
Actual: 0.68M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.99M
Actual: 1.84M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 61.30
1st Peak @ 61.50 – 1030:00 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 60.99 – 1030:36 (1 min)
51 ticks

Continued Reversal to 60.76 – 1035 (5 min)
74 ticks

Pullback to 61.45 – 1043 (13 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 60.98 – 1056 (26 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a bit of indecision as it climbed 20 ticks immediately then started to reverse after 4 sec and fell 51 ticks in 36 sec to the 100/200 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 61.43 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then it would have bounced around the fill point for 4 sec before falling. Since it made a double top with the high from 10 min earlier and the HOD was still above, look to exit quickly to limit the loss. If not the stop would have been taken shortly after. After the reversal, it chopped and continued to reverse for another 23 ticks in 4 min. Then it pulled back 69 ticks in 8 min before reversing 47 ticks in 13 min to the 200 SMA.

7/8/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.70M
Actual: 0.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.25M
Actual: 1.22M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.86M
Actual: 1.64M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 52.63
1st Peak @ 51.81 – 1030:53 (1 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 52.15 – 1031:29 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 51.38 – 1043 (13 min)
125 ticks

Reversal to 52.03 – 1053 (23 min)
65 ticks

Final Peak @ 50.91 – 1201 (91 min)
172 ticks

Reversal to 51.70 – 1223 (113 min)
79 ticks

Expected Fill: 52.48 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 51.82 – 66 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 52.23 (25 ticks) – move lower as it continued trickling down

Notes: Large reaction as all the products saw gains. It found support at the PP Pivot then the S1 Mid and S1 Pivots on later peaks.

7/22/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.26M
Actual: 2.47M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.93M
Actual: -1.73M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.77M
Actual: 0.24M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 49.97
Head fake to 49.85 – 1029:59 (0 min)
12 ticks

1st Peak @ 50.49 – 1030:00 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 49.84 – 1030:33 (1 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 50.16 – 1037 (7 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 49.67 – 1041 (11 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 50.58 – 1056 (26 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 50.17 – 1110 (40 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: 49.87 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 50.05 – 17 tick loss (15 tick stop loss +2 ticks slippage)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Unfortunate head fake spoiled the trade. However the strong initial reversal is indication that big swings are likely. The test of the 200 SMAat 1037 and the test of the LOD at 1041 would have been good setups.

8/5/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.49M
Actual: -4.41M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.49M
Actual: 0.81M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.53M
Actual: 0.71M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 46.32
1st Peak @ 46.70 – 1032:00 (2 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 46.05 – 1041 (11 min)
65 ticks

Continued Reversal to 44.88 – 1205 (95 min)
182 ticks

Expected Fill: 46.42 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 46.69 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 46.62 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Even with a large draw on the crude, the market could not sustain a rally beyond the R2 Pivot and reversed strongly. It used the 12/20 SMAs as resistance and the 50 SMA in the middle of the drop.