Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 05-15 (1 Min) 4.23.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 262015

4/23/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 83B
Actual: 90B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.551
1st Peak @ 2.520 – 1030:00 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 2.570 – 1042 (12 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 2.532 – 1110 (40 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 2.549 – 1121 (51 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 2.525 – 1208 (98 min)
24 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell to cross the S2 Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.530 with 11 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it chop initially then settle to hover near the low on the S2 Pivot. Look to exit there with about 8 ticks. After that it reversed 50 ticks in 11 min after crossing the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back 38 ticks in 28 min before reversing 17 ticks in 11 min. Then it pulled back 24 ticks in 47 min.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 9.26.2013

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

9/26/2013 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’24
1st Peak@ 131’18 – 0830:09 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 131’23 – 0830:50 (1 min)
5 ticks

Final peak @ 131’15 – 0850 (20 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 131’24 – 0905 (35 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a short spike of 6 ticks in 9 sec that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 131’21 with 1 tick of slippage. Then look to exit near the S1 Pivot with 1-2 ticks where it hovered for 17 sec. After that it reversed quickly for 5 ticks at the end of the :31 bar. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 3 more ticks in 19 min that extended the LOD. After that it reversed 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot / 100 SMA.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

3/27/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’23
1st Peak@ 133’18 – 0830:07 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’24 – 0836 (6 min)
6 ticks

Continued Reversal to 133’29 – 0848 (18 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 133’22 – 0904 (34 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, causing a small short spike of 5 ticks in 7 sec that started on the 200 SMA and fell to cross the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 133’21 with no slippage. Then look to exit just below the R1 Mid Pivot with 2 ticks where it hovered for about 20 sec. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 5 min to the 200 SMA then another 5 ticks in 12 more min to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. Then it pulled back 7 ticks in 16 min to the 200/100 SMAs.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.25.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

6/25/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -1.8%
Actual: -2.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 136’10
1st Peak@ 136’21 – 0830:03 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 136’18 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd peak @ 136’29 – 0837 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 136’19 – 0849 (19 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.1%, causing a large long spike of 11 ticks in 3 sec that started on the 13/20 SMAs and climbed to cross the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 136’14 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then look to exit on the R2 Pivot where it hovered with 5 ticks. After that it reversed only 3 ticks in 1 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks to the R2 Pivot in 12 min.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.26.2014

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

9/26/2014 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 4.6%
Actual: 4.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION -NO FILL
Started @ 137’29
1st Peak@ 137’31 – 0830:12 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 137’28 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd peak @ 138’01 – 0834 (4 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 137’05 – 0900 (30 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 137’25 – 0925 (55 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing a dull reaction of only 1 tick until 12 sec into the reaction when it popped up for 1 more tick. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and just above the OOD and did not move much. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, you should have cancelled the order after 10 sec with no fill and the matching forecast. If you did not cancel, you would have filled long at 137’31 with no slippage, then had the opportunity to exit at breakeven or -1 tick. After the small bump it reversed 3 ticks in 1 min before climbing for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks. Then it dramatically fell 28 ticks in 26 min to the S2 Mid Pivot before pulling back 20 ticks in 25 min to the PP Pivot / 100 SMA.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.27.2015

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

3/27/2015 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’04
1st Peak@ 163’11 – 0831:17 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 163’06 – 0836 (6 min)
5 ticks

2nd peak @ 163’17 – 0841 (11 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 0856 (26 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a long spike of 7 ticks over about 80 sec. As we mentioned in the alert, “if the result differs by 0.2% or less, look for a spike of 4-7 ticks”. Sure enough that was prophetic in this case. This did differ from the previous reports to drift into the :32 bar on the first peak, but other than that it was true to form. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 163’06 with no slippage. Then be patient and set a profit target at 4 ticks since the HOD is the only resistance barrier. It would have filled nicely early in the :32 bar. After that it reversed 5 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 15 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.28.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 292015

4/28/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 102.6
Actual: 95.2
Previous revision: +0.1 to 101.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008407
1st Peak @ 0.008417 – 1001:07 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008410 – 1001:48 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.008423 – 1007 (7 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008413 – 1048 (48 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin of 7.4 pts with a negligible upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a long move of 10 ticks that climbed 9 ticks immediately then hovered to snag 1 more tick later. It started just below the 200 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008411 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed an exit with 3-4 ticks as it hovered just above the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks after peaking in the :02 bar. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min to extend the HOD before reversing 10 ticks in 41 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.29.2015

Advance GDP Comments Off

Apr 292015

4/29/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.0%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to 2.2%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 159’29 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 160’10 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’28 – 0831:09 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 160’18 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 158’22 – 0910 (40 min)
60 ticks

Pullback to 159’27 – 0933 (63 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 159’19 (just below the LOD)
Short entry – 160’09 (just below the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report came in weak showing the economic growth in Q1 grinded to a halt as it fell short of the forecast by 0.8%. This caused a quick long spike of 13 ticks in 2 sec that touched the 200 SMA then reversed quickly. It would have filled the short entry with 1 tick to spare in an ideal location, then fallen to hover for 14 sec just below the 100 SMA. Look to exit there with about 6-7 ticks. After a small pullback, it continued to reverse another 6 ticks in about 30 sec to the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 7 min as it nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 60 ticks in 31 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. After that it pulled back 37 ticks in 23 min to the S1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.23.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 012015

4/23/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 288K
Actual: 295K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008335
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008343 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008334 – 0835:18 (6 min)
)))-9 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008327 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008316 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008345 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008354 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast with 7k offset. This caused a quick long spike of 8 ticks in 7 sec that crossed the OOD and nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner short entry at 0.008345 by 2 ticks and possibly offered a chance for a manual shifted entry as it retreated and then popped up later to the same area. If you did shift down, it would have filled short around 0.008341, then allowed about 6 ticks to be captured with patience after falling for over 4 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 012015

4/30/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 290K
Actual: 262K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008416 (shift down 4 ticks to 0.008412 near the 200/100 SMAs)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008390 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008407 – 0830:33 (1 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Final Peak @0.008363 – 0943 (73 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 0.008377 – 1004 (94 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008403 (just above the OOD) / 0.008393 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008422 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008432 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in much better than the forecast with 28k offset while other concurrently released news came in mostly moderately disappointing. This caused a quick short spike of 22 ticks in 3 sec that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD, then reversed. This would have filled your inner and outer long entries to make your average long position 0.008398. Then it reversed to hover at 0.008407 for 18 sec later in the :31 bar to allow a total of 18 ticks to be captured. After that it fell into a downward fan as it reached the final peak of 27 more ticks in 72 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 21 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA / S1 Pivot.

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