4/30/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to 2.6%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 134’01 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 134’14 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’08 – 0830:47 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 134’20 – 0835 (5 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 134’08 – 0848 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’23 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 133’16 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 134’10 (in between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots) / 134’18 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in strongly disappointing as it fell short by 1.1% of an already anemic forecast. This caused a large long spike of 13 ticks that crossed all 3 Major SMAs, the R1 Mid Pivot and the OOD. This would have filled the inner short tier at 134’10, then allowed an exit near breakeven as it hovered later in the bar between 1 tick of heat and 1 tick of profit. Due to the strong results it would be wise to exit quickly when it fell back to the fill point. After the reversal, it climbed for another 6 ticks for a 2nd peak that reached the R1 Pivot. If you were still open in the trade or left the outer tier pending, it would have filled on the 2nd peak and then allowed for a nice profit on the ensuing reversal of 12 ticks in the next 13 min.

10/30/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Revision: +0.6% to 4.6%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 141’24 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 141’14 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’21 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Pullback to141’17 – 0830:24 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’26 – 0831:49 (2 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Pullback to 141’19 – 0836 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 142’02 – 0859 (29 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 141’14 (just below the OOD, on the R1 Pivot)
Short entry – 142’03 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately strong beating the forecast by 0.4%. This caused a short spike of 10 ticks that crossed all 3 Major SMAs near the origin, and reached the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot. Depending on your placement, this would have filled the inner long tier at 141’14 or just missed if lower. If lower, manually move the tier up as it hovered for 7 sec on the OOD. Then it reversed 7 ticks after 11 sec, and another 5 ticks into the :32 bar to allow up to 11-12 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to cross the 200 SMA, then reversed 15 ticks to nearly reach the R2 Pivot after 23 min.

4/29/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.0%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to 2.2%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 159’29 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 160’10 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’28 – 0831:09 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 160’18 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 158’22 – 0910 (40 min)
60 ticks

Pullback to 159’27 – 0933 (63 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 159’19 (just below the LOD)
Short entry – 160’09 (just below the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report came in weak showing the economic growth in Q1 grinded to a halt as it fell short of the forecast by 0.8%. This caused a quick long spike of 13 ticks in 2 sec that touched the 200 SMA then reversed quickly. It would have filled the short entry with 1 tick to spare in an ideal location, then fallen to hover for 14 sec just below the 100 SMA. Look to exit there with about 6-7 ticks. After a small pullback, it continued to reverse another 6 ticks in about 30 sec to the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 7 min as it nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 60 ticks in 31 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. After that it pulled back 37 ticks in 23 min to the S1 Pivot.

10/29/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.6%
Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: +1.6% to 3.9%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 157’22 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 157’13 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 157’29 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Pullback to 157’15 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 157’23 – 0831:16 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 157’03 – 0837 (7 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 157’17 – 0850 (20 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 157’12 (just below the LOD / S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 158’00 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Quick whipsaw that was a few ticks short of the tiers. Notice the hovering on the 200 SMA and for a short opportunity or the hovering later in the :31 bar at 157’16 for a long opportunity. As the report faded, it turned into a selloff.

1/30/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.3%
Actual: 3.2%
Previous Revision: +1.3% to 4.1%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 133’08 (last price and 50 SMA position)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 133’13 – 0830:04 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’08 – 0830:17 (1 min)
-5 ticks
————
Double top @ 133’13 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’03 – 0836 (6 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 132’30 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 132’23 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 133’17 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/ on the OOD) / 133’25 (no SMA/Pivot within 3 ticks)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with a slightly disappointing reading. This coupled with the greater than expected unemployment claims caused a decisive, but muted long spike of only 5 ticks. It was restricted in its upward trajectory by crossing the 100/200 SMAs. As this was inside of the inner tier short entry by a healthy margin of 4 ticks, cancel the order after 10 sec. As we watched it retreat back to the origin in 17 sec, we noted the trap trade approach is still valid as a model and greater divergence on the reading would have likely worked out in our favor. After the initial bar, it was able to achieve a double top on the :33 bar, then reversed for 10 ticks to eclipse the PP Pivot.