Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Oct 132014

9/30/2014 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 324.25
1st Peak @ 321.00 – 1200:30 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 323.25 – 1200:54 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 319.50 – 1206 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 324.00 – 1242 (42 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a mild bearish reaction. It fell 13 ticks, reaching the S3 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short after a 25 sec wait with about 1-2 ticks of slippage at 322.50 or 322.25, then seen it hover just above the S3 Mid Pivot for about 20 sec. Exiting after seeing the hovering at about 321.25 would have been safe for about 4-5 ticks. After the hovering, it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 24 sec to the S2 Mid Pivot as the :01 bar was expiring. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to the S3 Pivot 5 min later. After that it reversed 18 ticks in 36 min to the 200 SMA. Then it backed off and traded sideways into the session close.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Aug 012015

6/30/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 97.1
Actual: 101.4
Previous revision: -0.8 to 94.6
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.008184
Whipsaw between 0.008196 and 0.008176 – 1000:01 (1 min)
20 ticks span

Pullback to 0.008193 – 1016 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008185 – 1025 (25 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a 4.3 point delta offset by a modest downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a whipsaw that spanned 20 ticks in 1 sec. This would have filled your long entry then fallen to stop you out with 10 ticks including 2 ticks of slippage. This was due to the impact of the Greek default and wide gap between both sides. After the whipsaw, it pulled back 9 ticks in 15 min before reversing 8 ticks in 9 min. Note that it also had a quick spike and retreat 17 min before the report.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.1.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Aug 022015

7/1/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 219K
Actual: 237K
Previous revision: +2K to 203K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008137 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008128 – 0815:01 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008137 – 0815:07 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008130 – 0815:24 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008136 – 0816:02 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008127 – 0821 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008139 – 0845 (30 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008128 (No Pivot / SMA near) / 0.008118 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008146 (No SMA /Pivot near) / 0.008156 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 18K better that the forecast with a negligible revision to the previous report to cause a 9 tick short spike that started on the 13 SMA and fell to extend the LOD then reverse. This would have just barely missed the inner long entry and not allowed a manual adjusted entry. It reversed 9 ticks in 6 sec then fell 7 ticks in 17 sec. After that it reversed 6 ticks before falling 9 ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 24 min.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.1.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 022015

7/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 53.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE – DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008128
1st Peak @ 0.008120 – 1000:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008130 – 1000:09 (1 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.008122 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008144 – 1034 (34 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report narrowly exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 0.3 pts. In lieu of the Greek situation effect on the market, this caused a short spike of 8 ticks that quickly reversed for 10 ticks in 9 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008123 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it reversed to within 1 tick of the stop before trickling back down to allow a breakeven exit after about 3 min. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 31 min after crossing all 3 SMAs.

ES 09-15 (1 Min) 7.2.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Aug 032015

7/2/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 231K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 223K
Previous Revision: -26K to 254K
Rate Forecast: 5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2073.00 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2078.50 – 0830:41 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 2075.00 – 0830:46 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 2079.00 – 0841 (11 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 2072.25 – 0916 (46 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2067.00 (just below the LOD) / 2063.00 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 2079.50 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 2083.00 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Weak report with 8K less jobs added than the forecast, a strong downward revision to the previous report along with a drop in the U-3 rate that was attributed to less people looking for work. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks in 41 sec that would have barely missed the inner short tier by 3-4 ticks. It did not hover, so no manual entry was available. It reversed in the next few sec for 14 ticks, then chopped sideways before climbing for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 10 min. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 35 min.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.6.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 242015

7/6/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.008161
1st Peak @ 0.008164 – 1000:02 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008159 – 1002 (2 min)
5 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008152 – 1018 (18 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.5 pts. This caused a 3 tick long move that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 50 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have barely filled at 0.008164 with no slippage, then you would have seen it fall to hover 1-2 ticks in the red for 12 sec. Look to exit there on the dull reaction. It reversed 5 ticks in 1 min then another 7 ticks in 16 min after crossing the 200 SMA.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 7.11.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 242014

7/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 388.50
1st Peak @ 383.50 – 1204 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 387.50 – 1207 (7 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 382.50 – 1210 (36 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 388.00 – 1219 (19 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a muted and tame move that took a few min to pan out. As it moved slowly, it fell 20 ticks in 4 min, stepping lower until it reached the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 387.25 with no slippage, then seen it fall and hover around the S2 Pivot for the first bar. Then it would have retraced to the origin and fallen again to allow an exit with about 2 ticks quickly or up to about 14 ticks if patient. There was no great place to setup a profit target, but 10 ticks would be conservative. After that it reversed for 16 ticks in 3 min , returning to the 13 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 3 min to eclipse the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 22 ticks back to the 50 SMA. After that it trended lower.

ZC 07-14 (1 Min) 6.11.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 032014

6/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 449.00
1st Peak @ 442.00 – 1206 (6 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 446.00 – 1215 (15 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 441.00 – 1236 (36 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a delayed but tame short move that did not move until 29 sec into the bar. If you were listening to talking forex, you would have heard about the delay and been able to leave the bracket on the chart. As it moved slowly, it fell 23 ticks in 30 sec to close out the :01 bar, then another 5 ticks on the next 5 bars as it flirted with the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 448.50 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall and hover around 444.00 at the end of the :01 bar, allowing a safe 18 ticks to be captured. Setting a profit target on or just below the S1 Pivot would also be prudent to snag another 7 or so ticks. After that it reversed for 16 ticks in 9 min , crossing the 20 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 21 min to the S2 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways in a tight range on the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZS 11-15 (1 Min) 7.10.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Aug 252015

7/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1021.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1024.25 – 1200:38 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1010.50 – 1201:47 (2 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 1029.00 – 1208 (8 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 1022.00 – 1212 (12 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 1036.75 – 1229 (29 min)
59 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the timing a little less than ideal as it hit a peak at 38 sec. The 32 sec setup would have seen an anchor point at 1021 at a point of consolidation just above the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 1022.50 with no slippage, then you would have seen it only gain a few ticks as it struggled with the 100/200 SMAs. With this picture of a reversal likely running its course and struggling to go higher, either look to exit or move the stop up to breakeven. It reversed 55 ticks in the next min to nearly reach the PP Pivot then pulled back 74 ticks in 6 min to the HOD. Then it reversed 28 ticks in 4 min to the cluster of SMAs before pulling back 59 ticks in 17 min.

ZC 11-15 (1 Min) 8.12.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Aug 252015

8/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL FILL…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 938.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 942.00 – 1200:42 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 923.00 – 1201:23 (2 min)
76 ticks

Pullback to 935.00 – 1202:20 (3 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 901.50 – 1209 (9 min)
134 ticks

Pullback to 922.50 – 1214 (14 min)
84 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the timing a little less than ideal as it hit a peak at 38 sec. The 32 sec setup would have seen an anchor point at 938.50 at a point of consolidation just below the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 940.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it only gain a few ticks as it struggled with the S3 Mid Pivot. Move the stop up to breakeven and see it get taken. It reversed 76 ticks in the next min then pulled back 48 ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 134 ticks in 9 min to the S4 Pivot before pulling back 84 ticks in 14 min to the 13 SMA.

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