Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

8/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.3%
Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: +0.9% to 3.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010080
1st Peak @ 0.010095 – 1002 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.010083 – 1012 (12 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010109 – 1033 (33 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.010098 – 1034 (34 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast offset with a sizable upward revision to the previous report. This caused a long reaction that achieved 15 ticks on 2 bars, using the 13/20 SMAs as a launching point, crossing the PP Pivot and nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010085 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at 0.010090 for about 5 ticks when it hovered. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 10 min to the PP Pivot, then it rebounded upward aided by the negative NFP results earlier and achieved a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks in the next 20 min. After a quick 11 tick reversal, it continued the rally, but the impact of this report has likely expired.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.0%
Actual: 2.1%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.3%
DULL REACTION…No Fill
Started @ 136’02
1st Peak @ 136’04 – 1001 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 135’31 – 1004 (4 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a strong reading and an upward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that eventually moved 2 ticks, but would have been cause to cancel the order without a fill. As long as you cancelled the order before 35 sec elapsed, you would have been fine. After the muted long move, it fell and reversed only 5 ticks to the 200 SMA on the :04 bar.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

4/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: +1.0% to -1.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.39
1st Peak @ 96.49 – 1002 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 96.34 – 1014 (14 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.66 – 1049 (49 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 96.32 – 1106 (66 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a strong reading and an upward revision to the previous report. This caused a 10 tick spike on the :02 bar to narrowly avoid the dull classification. Due to the selloff of about 130 ticks in the past 2 hrs and the drastic extension of the LOD, the market was oversold and unwilling to go lower than the new low of 95.91. A correction was underway in the 30 min prior to report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 96.45 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-4 ticks on the :01 or :02 bars. Knowing the market conditions and the bullish report, I decided to stay in for a longer term 2nd peak. I initially kept my stop loss at the S1 Pivot at 15 ticks, but later moved it up to 96.33 when that level held up after 2 tests. I had a 10 tick target that filled on the :27 bar. The 2nd peak claimed 27 ticks to eclipse the 200 SMA, then the final reversal recaptured 34 ticks. This is an example of how you can use the larger market picture to your advantage.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

3/6/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -2.2%
Actual: -2.0%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to 1.3%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 90.17
1st Peak @ 90.09 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 90.31 – 1007 (7 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Mixed report disappointed with a dismal forecast and narrowly better result, but a large downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull bearish reaction that could only muster 8 ticks. Due to the selloff of about 80 ticks in the past 2 hrs and the extension of the LOD, the market was oversold and unwilling to go lower than 90.08 finding firm support at that level. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 90.13 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-3 ticks on the :01 or :02 bars. After several unsuccessful attempts to penetrate the 90.08 level, it reversed to 90.31 for 22 ticks in about 4 min to cross the S1 Pivot and touch the 50 SMA.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/4/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -40.3B
Actual: -40.6B
Previous Revision: -1.2B to -43.0B
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.009755
1st Peak @ 0.009761 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009742 – 0839 (9 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast with an offset of 0.3B. The news caused a dull move initially that did not stray more than 2 ticks away from the anchor point until late in the :31 bar, but eventually achieved 6 ticks on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would not have filled as you should have cancelled within 10 sec with no fill. With the strong ADP report 15 min earlier, the market was rebounding off of a large bearish move, so the reversal on this report was overlapping with the pursuit of a 2nd peak on the ADP. It achieved 19 ticks in 7 min, crossing the PP Pivot. After that, it backed off and stepped lower one more time.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.21.2013

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Dec 202013

11/21/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 15.8
Actual: 6.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’16
1st Peak @ 130’21 – 1001 (1 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 130’27 – 1009 (9 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 130’18 – 1046 (46 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a delta of 9.3 pts, causing a long spike on the ZB that started just above the LOD after a downtrend, and crossed the 50 SMA on the :01 bar. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 130’20 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit at 130’23 on the 100 SMA with 3 ticks. The reaction was tame and slow, but due to the large offset, you can patiently wait for a better exit. It stepped higher for a 2nd peak of 11 ticks in 9 min, reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it chopped sideways for several min before reversing 9 ticks 30 min or so after the 2nd peak. After that it rebounded and rallied for the next hour or so.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.17.2013

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Dec 202013

10/17/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 15.4
Actual: 19.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’24
1st Peak @ 133’17 – 1003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 134’02 – 1124 (84 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast with a delta of 4.4 pts, causing a short spike on the ZB that started on the R2 Mid Pivot, crossed the 50/100 SMAs, and terminated at the 200 SMA on the :03 bar. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at about 133’21 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at 133’18 on the 200 SMA with 3 ticks. After the peak, it struggled with the 200 SMA for a few min, the reversed to continue with the overall upward trend, capturing 17 ticks in the next 80 min. After that it pulled back and traded sideways.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 11.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 182013

11/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.2
Actual: 55.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010170
1st Peak @ 0.010157 – 1001 (1 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010145 – 1006 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.010160 – 1023 (23 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by 1.2 points. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks on the :01 bar as it started in between the 100 and 200 SMAs, then crossed the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010163 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it settle down and slowly drift lower. Due to the lower offset, it would be safe to anticipate the first bar as the entire move and get out at about 0.10158 for 5 ticks. The minimal reversal and steady drop over the next 5 min was unusual for this report as it achieved a 2nd peak of another 12 ticks to nearly reach the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 17 min as it crossed the 50 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 10.3.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 182013

10/3/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.2
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010256
1st Peak @ 0.010278 – 1001 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.010262 – 1012 (12 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010281 – 1029 (29 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.010271 – 1049 (49 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report fell short of the forecast by 2.8 points after two months of strongly positive reports. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks on the :01 bar as it started on the 13 SMA, then crossed the PP Pivot and OOD before pulling back. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010264 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up to the peak immediately and retreat to the fill point after a few seconds. The combination of the PP Pivot and OOD are a strong resistance barrier, so look for a conservative target at about 0.010271 for 7 ticks. This would have filled later in the :01 bar. After that it hovered just below the OOD, then reversed back to the S1 Mid Pivot for 16 ticks. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks at the bottom of the hour, able to sustain the crossing of the PP Pivot for a longer period. Then it reversed back to the 50 SMA and OOD for 10 ticks in the next 20 min. After that it kept stepping higher for over an hour, but due to other factors than this report.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 9.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 182013

9/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.2
Actual: 58.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010011
1st Peak @ 0.009990 – 1001 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.010002 – 1002 (2 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009983 – 1018 (18 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.010007 – 1114 (74 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Another Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast by 3.4 points. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks on the :01 bar as it started on the 200 SMA, then terminated just above the S2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010001 with 7 ticks of slippage, then seen it keep attempted to penetrate through the S2 Pivot unsuccessfully. A target placed at about 0.009992 would have filled for 9 ticks. Not the best situation with the high slippage, but due to the large moves, it still allows for more than a handful of ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks, then fell to chop sideways as it eventually reached a final peak of 7 more ticks in the next 15 min or so, as it crossed the S2 Pivot and the LOD. After that it reversed slowly almost back to the origin, crossing the 50/100 SMAs and reaching the 200 SMA in the next hour.

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