Trade Balance | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.6.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

May 242014

5/6/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -40.1B
Actual: -40.4B
Previous Revision: +0.4B to -41.9B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009842
1st Peak @ 0.009845 – 0831 (1 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009851 – 0842 (12 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009841 – 0851 (21 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast to cause a dull long reaction that only achieved 3 ticks on the :31 bar to reach the HOD then backed off. With JOBB you would have either cancelled after 10 sec with no fill or been filled at 0.009845 with no slippage, then seen it back off and hover at -1 tick for about 30 sec. Look to exit there with the matching results. After the :31 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 11 min. Then it fell 10 ticks in the next 9 min back to the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -40.8B
Actual: -47.2B
Previous Revision: -3.8B to -44.2B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009754
1st Peak @ 0.009760 – 0831 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009755 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009762 – 0849 (19 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009752 – 0910 (40 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 6.4B to cause a small and slow moving long reaction of 6 ticks in 34 sec to reach the PP Pivot. With JOBB you may have cancelled as the reaction would have hit the long entry at about 12 sec, otherwise you would have been filled at 0.009757 with no slippage. Look to exit at 59 or 60 on the PP Pivot for about 2-3 ticks. After a small reversal back to the origin, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in the next 18 min. Then it fell 10 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD. It continued to fall further in the next hour, but largely due to the follow up reaction to the ADP Payroll report earlier and other market dynamics.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.6.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Aug 282014

8/6/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -44.2B
Actual: -41.5B
Previous Revision: -0.3B to -44.7B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009774
1st Peak @ 0.009769 – 0832 (2 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009784 – 0835 (5 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.009771 – 0854 (24 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 2.7B to cause a dull spike of 5 ticks over 2 bars as it found heavy support with the convergence of all 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you may have cancelled as the reaction would have hit the short entry at about 7-8 sec, otherwise you would have been filled at 0.009771 with no slippage. Look to exit at 71 or 70 in the middle of the SMAs as the struggle is evident it cannot go lower. After the :32 bar, it reversed for 15 ticks in only 3 min, crossing the R2 mid Pivot and extending the HOD. Then it pulled back 13 ticks in the next 20 min to reached the 100/200 SMAs again. It continued to swing up and down as the influence of the report wore off.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

Trade Balance, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/4/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 298K
Actual: 302K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009531 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009546 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009532 – 0831:07 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009524 – 0837 (7 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 0.009535 – 0844 (14 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009521 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009512 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009541 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009550 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 4k offset while the concurrently released Trade Balance came in 2.0B better than the forecast to conflict and cause a long reaction of 15 ticks. This would filled your inner tier and fallen short of the outer by 4-5 ticks. Then it would have reversed quickly for 14 ticks in the early part of the :02 bar, then continued for another 8 ticks in the next 5 min. Look to exit below the PP Pivot for about 9-10 ticks. After struggling with the S1 Pivot and reaching the 100 SMA, it pulled back for 11 ticks in the next 7 min to the PP Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.4.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -40.0B
Actual: -43.0B
Previous Revision: +0.1B to -40.0B
DULL REACTION…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008816
1st Peak @ 0.008826 – 0834 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008815 – 0841 (11 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 3.0B to cause a dull spike initially that took 14 sec to reach 3 ticks and 4 min to achieve 10 ticks as it crossed the 200 SMA. The spike started just below the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100 / 200 SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you should have cancelled as the reaction sat idle for more than 10 sec. If you did not cancel, you would have filled long at 0.008819 with no slippage and seen it slowly ascend. With the strong resistance barriers just above and the failure to launch, look ot exit with 1-2 ticks of profit late in the :31 bar or early in the :32 bar. It continued to snag another 4 ticks in the next 2 min, then reversed 11 ticks in the next 7 min.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.7.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 082014

1/7/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -40.2B
Actual: -34.3B
Previous Revision: +1.3B to -39.3B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009579
1st Peak @ 0.009572 – 0832 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009566 – 0842 (12 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009578 – 0849 (19 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with another reading in the -30s. The news caused a dull move initially that only achieved 7 ticks on the :31 bar to match the low and find support at the same area as 45 min earlier. With JOBB you would filled short at 0.009575 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover between your fill point and +3 ticks. Look to exit with 1-2 ticks of profit when it failed to launch. After hovering for about 10 min, it was able to achieve a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in 7 min back to the 200 SMA.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/4/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -40.3B
Actual: -40.6B
Previous Revision: -1.2B to -43.0B
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.009755
1st Peak @ 0.009761 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009742 – 0839 (9 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast with an offset of 0.3B. The news caused a dull move initially that did not stray more than 2 ticks away from the anchor point until late in the :31 bar, but eventually achieved 6 ticks on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would not have filled as you should have cancelled within 10 sec with no fill. With the strong ADP report 15 min earlier, the market was rebounding off of a large bearish move, so the reversal on this report was overlapping with the pursuit of a 2nd peak on the ADP. It achieved 19 ticks in 7 min, crossing the PP Pivot. After that, it backed off and stepped lower one more time.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 9.4.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 042013

9/4/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -38.7B
Actual: -39.1B
Previous Revision: +0.3B to -34.5B
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.010056
1st Peak @ 0.010061 – 0832 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010068 – 0847 (17 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.010053 – 0907 (37 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast with an offset of 0.4B. The news caused a dull move initially that did not stray more than 2 ticks away from the anchor point until late in the :31 bar, but eventually achieved 5 ticks on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would not have filled as you should have cancelled within 10 sec with no fill. With only 5 ticks on the initial peak, it did not have a discernible reversal before achieving a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 15 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks back to just above the 200 SMA. It is unclear if the movement was due to the news or not. After the reversal, it continued to step lower.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.6.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 032013

8/6/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -43.1B
Actual: -34.2B
Previous Revision: +0.9B to -44.1B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010199
1st Peak @ 0.010185 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.010197 – 0846 (16 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with only the second reading better than -40B since 2.5 years ago. The news caused a short move that fell 14 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot and hitting an unlabeled area of support that the market hit about 90 min earlier. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.010194 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close with about 7 ticks when it hovered near the low of the bar at 0.10187. The reversal started with a retracement on the :31 bar leaving 5 ticks on the tail naked. This continued for another 7 ticks as it barely broke above the 50 SMA on the :46 bar. After that it cycled down and up again.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.4.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 102013

6/4/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -41.1B
Actual: -40.3B
Previous Revision: +1.7B to -37.1B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 93.28
1st Bar range 93.25 to 93.31 – 0831 (1 min)
+/- 3 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast by 0.8B to cause a dull reaction. When the market fails to launch in about 10-15 sec, cancel the bracket. In this case you could have ridden out the entire :31 bar and most of the :32 bar without a fill. The 6J had a better reaction to this report, but not over the long term trend so we will continue to evaluate it.

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