Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 11.8.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Nov 292013

11/8/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 415.50
1st Peak @ 428.75 – 1200:06 (1 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 417.00 – 1200:30 (1 min)
-47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 429.50 – 1206 (6 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 421.25 – 1224 (24 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Due to the US Gov shutdown, the October report was skipped and embedded in this report. Report Reaction caused a healthy but unsustainable long spike of 52 ticks on the :01 bar that started on the S3 Mid Pivot then crossed all 3 major SMAs and eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 421.75 with abnormally high 20 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it peaked quickly and hovered between 424.75 and 428.75 until 13 sec into the bar. As this report is prone to achieve the peak quickly then reverse, look to exit where it hovered for 20+ ticks. After hovering, it reversed 47 ticks back to the 50 SMA at 30 sec, then rebounded for a 2nd peak that stepped higher to nearly reach the R3 Pivot on the :06 bar. Due to the high slippage, and the predictable model of this report, it would be safe to trade the reversal from the R3 Mid Pivot for 20-30 ticks, or trade the 2nd peak with a long entry when it fell to the 50 SMA for 20-40 ticks. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 33 ticks to nearly reach the 50 SMA. After that it settled down and traded sideways.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 9.30.2013

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Nov 292013

9/30/2013 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 452.75
1st Peak @ 447.25 – 1201 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 455.50 – 1204 (4 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 442.25 – 1249 (49 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 445.75 – 1333 (93 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a relatively tame and decisive short spike. It fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot for 22 ticks on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 451.00 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall for another 15 ticks. A target at the S3 Mid Pivot for 12 ticks would have easily filled. After the peak, it reversed for 33 ticks in the next 3 bars, crossing the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot. Then it fell again and trickled lower for a 2nd peak of 42 ticks, about 45 min later as it crossed the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it rebounded for 14 ticks back to the S3 Pivot 45 min later and traded sideways.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 11.27.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 292013

11/27/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.61M
Actual: 2.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.26M
Actual: 1.75M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.11M
Actual: -1.67M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.24
1st Peak @ 92.44 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 92.32 – 1032 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.57 – 1034 (4 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 92.08 – 1124 (54 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a nearly matching modest draw. With the results, we would expect to see a short reaction winning out based on the Crude and Gas results. Instead, we saw a tame and small long reaction that crossed the 50/100 SMAs for 20 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 92.34 with no slippage, then seen it chop between -7 and 9 ticks of profit for most of the :31 bar. Look to exit with just a few ticks above the 100 SMA. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks on the :32 bar, crossing the 100 SMA and reaching the 13 SMA. Then it rallied for another 13 ticks for a 2nd peak that crossed the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 49 ticks back to just above the LOD in 50 min.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 292013

11/20/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.90M
Actual: 0.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.26M
Actual: -0.35M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.61M
Actual: -4.80M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.64
1st Peak @ 94.08 – 1034 (4 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 93.88 – 1035 (5 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.37 – 1047 (12 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 94.02 – 1129 (59 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching negligible gain in inventories, while gasoline saw a nearly matching negligible draw and distillates saw a healthy draw when a negligible draw was expected. With the results, we would expect to see a long reaction winning out based on the Distillate results. We saw a choppy long reaction that took several bars to rise as it targeted the 200/100 SMAs and R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 93.76 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between -10 and 8 ticks of profit for most of the :31 bar, before it started ratcheting upward. You could have exited with a few ticks above breakeven, or be patient due to the distillate results. It continued to step higher for another 20 ticks in the next 3 bars. After the peak, it reversed 20 ticks on the :35 bar as it struggled with the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied for another 29 ticks for a 2nd peak that crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 35 ticks back to the 200 SMA in about 47 min.

CL 12-13 (1 Min) 11.14.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 292013

11/14/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.99M
Actual: 2.64M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.69M
Actual: -0.84M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.29M
Actual: -0.48M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.02
1st Peak @ 93.12 – 1101 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 92.51 – 1111 (11 min)
61 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.43 – 1231 (91 min)
141 ticks

Reversal to 93.94 – 1331 (151 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a nearly matching negligible draw and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected. With the results, we would expect to see a short reaction winning out with indecision initially. We saw a muted reaction that would have remained inside the bracket for about 20 sec. After spiking long for only 10 ticks as it crossed the 50/100 SMAs, it reversed for 61 ticks in the next 10 min, crossing the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse until 20 sec, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it changed sentiment and climbed for a large 2nd peak of 141 ticks in 80 min, crossing all 3 major Pivots and the R1 Pivot. Then it backed off slowly to reverses 49 ticks in an hour back to the R1 Mid Pivot.

CL 12-13 (1 Min) 11.6.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 292013

11/6/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.63M
Actual: 1.58M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.34M
Actual: -3.76M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.30M
Actual: -4.90M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.38
1st Peak @ 94.69 – 1031 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 94.27 – 1033 (3 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.78 – 1045 (15 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 94.43 – 1109 (39 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline and distillates both saw healthy draws when modest draws were expected. With the results, the product draws drove the news. We saw a long spike of 31 ticks in 1 min that started on the upward trending 13/20 SMAs, then crossed the R2 Mid Pivot prior to leaving 13 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 94.52 with 4 ticks of slippage, then place your target in the vicinity of the R2 Pivot at 94.82. After peaking at 94.69 12 sec into the bar, then hovering and falling, exit before the reversal surrenders all of your profit. After the peak, it reversed for 42 ticks on the next 2 bars as it eclipsed the 50 SMA, then geared up for the 2nd peak. It only achieved another 9 ticks, unable to quite reach the R2 Pivot, then it fell for 35 ticks in the next 24 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it continued the long term rally, stepping higher.

CL 12-13 (1 Min) 10.30.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 292013

10/30/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.23M
Actual: 4.09M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.14M
Actual: -1.71M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.15
1st Peak @ 97.31 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 97.01 – 1031 (1 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.44 – 1035 (5 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 96.86 – 1038 (8 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. Refinery capacity continues to taper off from the highs of the summer. With conflicting results, we saw a choppy reaction, but the indecision was borne out over the entire :31 bar, so it would have been safe to avoid a big loss. It initially spiked long for 16 ticks, then reversed after 24 sec to fall 30 ticks with 6 sec left in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 97.27 with 2 ticks of slippage, then after observation of the initial activity, place your target in the vicinity of the S1 Pivot at 97.42 and move your stop loss up to 97.22. With this approach the stop would have taken for a few ticks loss. Of note, a 15 tick stop loss would have been safe to ride initial volatility, but would have filled 38 sec into the bar after it hovered and reversed. After the reversal, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to reach the S1 Pivot, then it fell dramatically in 3 min for 58 ticks. After that it rebounded again to match the 2nd peak about 20 min later, then chopped sideways.

CL 12-13 (1 Min) 10.23.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 292013

10/23/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.94M
Actual: 5.25M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.25M
Actual: -1.81M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.50
1st Peak @ 96.24 – 1031 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 96.67 – 1032 (2 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.17 – 1036 (6 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 96.63 – 1105 (35 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. With conflicting results, we saw a short spike that was unsustainable, but still safe to capture a profit. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 96.39 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall and hover between 2 and 15 ticks of profit near the LOD. With the hovering and the apparent support barrier, look to exit there with about 12 ticks. After about 22 sec, it reversed and left the tail naked to finish the bar near the origin, then gain a total of 43 ticks on the :32 bar, back to the 200 SMA. Then it fell again in the next 4 bars to achieve a 2nd peak of 33 ticks as it hit the LOD. Then it pulled back and chopped sideways below the 50/100 SMAs and eventually popped up to eclipse the 200 SMA for a total of 46 ticks in about 30 min.

CL 12-13 (1 Min) 10.21.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 292013

10/21/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.16M
Actual: 4.00M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.10M
Actual: -2.57M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 100.37
1st Bar range: 100.35 to 100.45 – 1031 (1 min)
-2 to 8 ticks

1st Peak @ 100.63 – 1033 (3 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 100.08 – 1036 (6 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected. With conflicting results, we saw a dull reaction on the :31 bar, then a breakout long on the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse hit the bracket within 10 sec or the :31 bar, so cancel the order. This is quite strange as normally conflicting results deliver an indecisive and choppy reaction. . After the :31 bar, it gained 26 ticks in 2 min, eclipsing the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed strongly for 55 ticks in the next 3 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot. After that it recovered to the 50 SMA, then drifted lower.

CL 11-13 (1 Min) 10.9.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 292013

10/9/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.49M
Actual: 6.81M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.31M
Actual: 0.15M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 101.98
1st Peak @ 101.34 – 1031 (1 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 101.83 – 1038 (8 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. With mildly conflicting results, the crude results drove the bearish move. We saw a short spike of 64 ticks that crossed the S4 Pivot, so the market was oversold possibly preventing a larger drop from happening under different circumstances. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 101.87 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it continue to ratchet lower without hovering more than 3-4 sec. Look to exit near the S4 Pivot for about 45 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 49 ticks in 7 min, back to the S4 Mid Pivot and 20 SMA. Then it drifted lower for the next 90 min between the S4 Mid and S4 Pivots.

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