10/2/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.27M
Actual: 5.47M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.64M
Actual: 3.50M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 102.58
1st Peak @ 102.30 – 1031 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 103.15 – 1036 (6 min)
85 ticks

Extended Reversal to 103.88 – 1116 (46 min)
158 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy gain when a negligible draw was expected. With consistent and heavily offsetting results, we should expect to see a large short reaction. Instead we saw a small short reaction that reversed after 2 bars, defying the conditions. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 102.44 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover between 4 and 14 ticks of profit. A target just below the R1 Pivot at 102.34 would have easily filled for 10 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 85 ticks in about 4 min, extending the HOD. Then it backed off and continued to rise for another 73 ticks in 40 min, eclipsing the R3 Pivot. Then it backed off and traded sideways near the R3 Pivot.

9/18/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.39M
Actual: -4.37M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.34M
Actual: -1.63M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 105.78
1st Peak @ 106.20 – 1031 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 106.00 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @107.69 – 1222 (112 min)
191 ticks

Reversal to 107.10 – 1309 (159 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected. With consistent and heavily offsetting results, we saw a healthy long spike on the :31 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs and reached the R2 Mid Pivot for 42 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 105.90 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it rise and hover between 16 and 30 ticks of profit. A target just above the R2 Mid Pivot would be prudent, but when it approached 106.20 multiple times and could not break through, look to exit safely with 20+ ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 20 ticks on the next bar, before stepping higher to a final peak of 191 ticks almost 2 hrs later after crossing the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 59 ticks crossing the 50 SMA and reaching the 100 SMA in about 45 min.

9/5/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: -1.26M
Actual: -1.84M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.31M
Actual: -1.83M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 107.71
1st Peak @ 107.47 – 1101 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 108.54 – 1128 (58 min)
107 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible draw was expected. With consistent results, we saw an initial pop long for 9 ticks that would have been inside the bracket, followed by the true short move for 24 ticks that crossed the 50 SMA and the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 107.61 with no slippage, then seen it fall and hover between 8 and 14 ticks of profit. Look to exit a few ticks below the 50 SMA for about 10 ticks. After the peak, it reversed strongly as the bullish sentiment from the results took over to gain 107 ticks in 27 min after it crossed the R2 Mid Pivot. After that it backed off the high and traded sideways.

8/21/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.96M
Actual: -1.43M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.49M
Actual: -4.03M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 104.77
1st Peak @ 104.88 – 1031 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 104.71 – 1031 (1 min)
-17 ticks

Settle @ 104.94 – 1031 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 104.24 – 1033 (3 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy draw when a modest draw was expected. With consistent results, the gas results should have caused a decisive and sustained long reaction, but we saw an indecisive and bizarre reaction. It popped for 11 ticks, then reversed 17 ticks and continued to oscillate around the S1 Mid Pivot before eventually settling 17 ticks higher. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 104.87 with no slippage, then seen it back off. If you were quick and hit the close button, you could have exited with 5-10 ticks loss before it would have hit the stop loss at 11 sec for 15 ticks. After the :31 bar, the :32 bar bizarrely fell 70 ticks into the early part of the next bar. This is strange due to the bullish news, but sometimes oil has a mind of its own and bucks the tide. Then it rebounded upward again in the next 12 min to achieve a 2nd peak as the bipolar sentiment. After that it fell and traded sideways near the SMAs.

8/7/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.24M
Actual: -1.32M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.76M
Actual: 0.14M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 105.39
1st Peak @ 105.15 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 105.50 – 1031 (1 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 104.58 – 1038 (8 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 105.18 – 1044 (14 min)
60 ticks

Extended Reversal to 105.35 – 1121 (51 min)
77 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching minimal draw in inventories, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a minimal draw was expected. With matching and offsetting news, we saw a choppy reaction that was still profitable. This caused a short move initially that fell 24 ticks to hit the 200 SMA, then pull back to the origin, before falling to the 200 SMA again and hovering within 5 ticks for about 6 sec. Then it reversed up to 105.50, to an unlabeled level of resistance. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 105.27 with 2 ticks of slippage. After seeing it hit the 200 SMA, retreat, and then fall to the 200 SMA again, look to exit just above the 200 SMA with about 8-10 ticks when it hovered for 6 sec. If you did not get out there, it would have stopped you out on the reversal about 20 sec later. After the reversal at the end of the :31 bar, it stepped lower for a 2nd peak of 57 more ticks in 7 min to hit the LOD. Then it reversed for 60 ticks in 6 min back to the 200 SMA, and another 17 ticks in the next 35 min. After that it continued to chop while drifting lower.