Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 6.6.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 082013

6/6/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 101B
Actual: 111B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.926 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.908 – 1030 (1 min)
18 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.844 – 1032 (3 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 3.883 – 1044 (14 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Moderately larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a small premature short spike 30 sec before the report that extended the LOD, then a consistent news based spike that fell 82 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.914 with about 2 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing (too early for news based) but small size, you could close out with a handful ot ticks or wait for the potential real spike. If you waited, you would have been able to capture 60+ ticks with ease. The peak was more sustainable than normal as it hit the S4 Pivot and stuck for about 7 min before the divergence built up to cause it to rebound for 39 ticks and eclipse the 20 SMA. After that it traded sideways between the S4 Mid Pivot and S4 Pivot.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 5.30.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/30/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 85B
Actual: 88B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.124 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 4.174 – 1030 (1 min)
50 ticks

1st Peak @ 4.075 – 1031 (2 min)
99 ticks

Reversal to 4.128 – 1032 (3 min)
53 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.041 – 1218 (108 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 4.064 – 1236 (126 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large premature long spike 3 sec before the report that nearly reached the PP Pivot, then after the news, the 1st peak drove it lower by nearly 100 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.144 with about 10 ticks of slippage on premature spike. Due to the timing (too early for news based) and size, close out with profit of about 20 ticks. The short move due to the news initiated on time and left 34 ticks on the tail naked. This continued into a quick reversal of 53 ticks back to the 13 SMA. Then it labored for a slow developing 2nd peak of 34 more ticks in the next 105 min. After that it reversed for 23 ticks in 18 min.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.28.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/28/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 70.7
Actual: 76.2
Previous revision: +0.9 to 69.0
INDECISIVE
Started @ 95.55
1st Peak @ 95.63 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 95.37 – 1001 (1 min)
-26 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and saw the highest reading since 2008, but caused a strange reaction across the entire market. Normally this would have caused a long sustainable move, but it popped up for 8 ticks to hit the 50 SMA, then quickly reversed for 26 ticks to eclipse the 100 SMA. The market conditions were already bizarre with equity markets rallying substantially for market highs in the 20 min prior to the report and the first day after a 3 day weekend. With JOBB you would have filled long at 95.60 with about 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with a 10 tick loss. Normally this report is a tame mover and yields a moderate amount of ticks, so the underlying market conditions are to blame here.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.24.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 1.3%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -1.5%
Regular Forecast: 1.6%
Regular Actual: 3.3%
Previous Revision: -1.2% to -6.9%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.009858
1st Peak @ 0.009837 – 0831 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reverse to 0.009865 – 0840 (10 min)
28 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009915 – 1001 (91 min)
78 ticks

Notes: Report came in predominately bullish and impressed the market overall. This caused a 21 tick short move that bottomed on the :31 bar, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and the 200 SMA, leaving 5 ticks on the tail naked. Then it quickly reversed for 28 ticks in 10 min, back to the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.009853 with 1 tick of slippage just below the 200 SMA. Look to exit just below the R1 Mid Pivot for about 10 -12 ticks. This is also a good report to use a profit trigger of about 10 ticks. After the initial quick reversal, it fell to test the 200 SMA one more time, then it rallied for the next 75 min for an extended reversal of 75 ticks.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.30.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 022013

5/30/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: -0.8M
Actual: 3.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.29
1st Peak @ 92.89 – 1103 (3 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 92.43 – 1110 (10 min)
46 ticks

Final Peak @ 93.99 – 1146 (46 min)
170 ticks

Reversal to 93.56 – 1159 (59 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Medium gain on the crude inventories when a small draw was expected, while gasoline saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories achieved another new record at nearly 400 million barrels. The long reaction defies logic as the aggregate news should have caused a short move, but that occasionally happens. We saw a long spike of 60 ticks in 3 min that eclipsed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and peaked at the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen the market oscillate between 9 ticks below your anchor point up to 5 ticks above for about 30 sec. This should have been cause to cancel the order without a fill. If you left the bracket on the chart, the long order would have filled with no slippage at 92.39, then you would have seen the slow, but steady rise on the remainder of the :31 bar until the beginning of the :33 bar, leaving up to 45 ticks to be captured. After the 1st peak, it reversed back to the 20 SMA 7 min later, then continued to rise for a 2nd peak of 90 more ticks in about 35 min. After that it reversed for 43 ticks before the top of the hour then traded sideways.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.22.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 022013

5/22/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.4M
Actual: -0.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.75
1st Peak @ 95.27 – 1031 (1 min)
48 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.37 – 1056 (26 min)
138 ticks

Reversal to 95.19 – 1115 (45 min)
82 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching result on the crude, while gasoline saw a healthy gain. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit at record levels. The small change in crude, the large inventory, and the gains in gasoline drove the short move of 48 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 95.61 with 4 ticks of slippage. Look to exit in between the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot for about 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed back to the area of the 100/50 SMAs briefly, then continued to fall also due to the rising dollar on Chmn Bernanke’s testimony. It achieved a final peak of 90 more ticks 25 min later to eclipse the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed back up for 82 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 20 min.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

5/1/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 154K
Actual: 119K
Previous revision: -27K to 237K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010284
1st Peak @ 0.010298 – 0816 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.010286 – 0819 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010310 – 0826 (11 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.010277 – 0857 (42 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately negative showing 35k less jobs created than expected along with a fairly strong downward revision of 27k jobs causing a relatively small 14 tick long spike on the :16 bar that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot near the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010288 with no slippage, then look to exit at about 0.010296 with 8 ticks as it hovered near the top of the bar. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 3 min, then it achieved a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks, eclipsing the R1 Pivot and extending the HOD. Given the small 1st peak for the result, a 2nd peak is almost expected. After that it reversed for 43 ticks back to the 100 SMA in the next 30 min.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 4.3.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

4/3/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 203K
Actual: 158K
Previous revision: +39K to 237K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010699
1st Peak @ 0.010739 – 0816 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.010699 – 0822 (7 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative showing 45k less jobs created than expected, but offset by a strong upward revision of 39k jobs causing an unsustainable 40 tick long spike on the :16 bar that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010705 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit with near the top with 30+ ticks at 5 sec into the bar before it slowly surrendered 24 ticks as the bar expired. After the peak, it reversed back to the 200 SMA at the origin, then climbed back up for a 2nd peak/double top 50 min after the report. It continued to rally for the following several hours, but not likely due to the report.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

3/6/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 172K
Actual: 198K
Previous revision: +23K to 215K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010705
1st Peak @ 0.010678 – 0816 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.010701 – 0854 (39 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 26k more jobs created than expected along with a fairly strong upward revision of 23k jobs causing a 27 tick short spike on the :16 bar that started in the middle of all 3 major SMAs and bottomed on the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.010701 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit with about 15 ticks as it hovered a few ticks above the bottom. After the peak and a failed attempt at a 2nd peak, it reversed for 23 ticks in 39 min, hitting the 200 SMA. After that it drifted lower.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 1.30.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 292013

1/30/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 164K
Actual: 192K
Previous revision: -30K to 185K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010962
1st Peak @ 0.010944 – 0816 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.010969 – 0830 (15 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive showing 28k more jobs created than expected , but a large downward revision of 30k jobs caused a brief 3 long tick move at the onset and an unsustainable spike of 18 ticks that left 10 ticks on the tail naked. It crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S3 Pivot, then bottomed 1 tick above the LOD and reversed quickly. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.010957 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit with about 10 ticks as it hovered near the bottom. After the unsustainable peak, it reversed for 25 ticks in 15 min, cut short by the Advance GDP report that broke at 0830.

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