6J 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013
May 232013
 

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 4_24_2013

4/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -1.4%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: -2.9%
Regular Actual: -5.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 5.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010052
1st Peak @ 0.010070 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 0.010049 – 0853 (19 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report came in solidly bearish and disappointing overall. This caused an 18 tick long move that peaked on the :31 bar, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and hitting the HOD. Then it surrendered 12 ticks before achieving a double top on the :38 bar. Then it reversed for 21 ticks in 15 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reaching the 200 SMA. After a double bottom, it reversed for 31 ticks in about 10 min to the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010058 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it popped up to 0.010070 early in the bar and retreated after that. This is a good report to use a profit trigger of about 10 ticks. If you were not quick enough to exit on the :31 bar with more than 5 ticks of profit, wait on the :32/ :33 bars for 5 or more ticks with the large naked wick on the :31 bar.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 3.26.2013

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May 232013
 

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 3_26_2013

3/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -0.5%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 2.3%
Regular Forecast: 3.9%
Regular Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -4.9%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010607
1st Peak @ 0.010597 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reverse to 0.010620 – 0837 (7 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar though not as much as last month causing a quick spike and pullback for a small indecisive reaction. It shorted 10 ticks to nearly reach the LOD, then popped back up after 5 sec to return to the origin. The core reading was moderately negative while the regular reading was strongly positive and the previous revisions were mildly positive. Since the forecasts were both positive, this was a safer proposition than last month. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.010602 with 1 tick of slippage. If you were quick you could have secured up to 4 ticks, otherwise you would have been stopped with a 5 tick loss after about 35 sec.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 2.27.2013

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May 232013
 

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 2_27_2013

2/27/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 1.9%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: -4.8%
Regular Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010913
1st Peak @ 0.010917 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.010907 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010949 – 0840 (10 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 010932 – 0848 (18 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing indecision. The core reading was strongly positive while the regular reading was strongly negative and the previous revisions were moderately negative. This caused a 4 tick long move, followed by an immediate 10 tick reversal. With the strongly divergent forecasts, this should have been warning enough to disqualify the report and was a lesson learned. With JOBB, this would have caused a long fill at about 0.010917 with no slippage, then you would have seen it reverse quickly to stop you out with a 6 tick loss with 1 tick of slippage. The :31 bar continued to be erratic bouncing between 0.010907 and 0.010919. Then the follow on reaction rallied 36 ticks for a 2nd peak.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 1.28.2013

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May 232013
 

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 1_28_2013

1/28/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual: 1.3%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 1.2%
Regular Forecast: 1.8%
Regular Actual: 4.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.011006
1st Peak @ 0.010990 – 0832 (2 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 010981 – 0836 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reverse to 0.011039 – 1001 (91 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Report came in very positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were overall slightly negative. The report was delayed about 90 sec, so the spike did not occur until late on the :32 bar. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks that crossed the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot, then found support at the PP Pivot initially. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 0.011000. Look to exit at or just below the PP Pivot around 0.010993 to be safe since the market was already trending lower and the PP Pivot is normally a very strong barrier. After the 1st peak, it retreated 8 ticks, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks only 3 min later. Then it double bottomed 10 min later before reversing 58 ticks in the next 75 min, riding the 13/20 SMAs.

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 11.27.2012

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May 232013
 

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 11_27_2012

11/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.6%
Core Actual: 1.5%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 9.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.012177
1st Peak @ 0.012161 – 0835 (5 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.012172 – 0840 (10 min)
11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.012178 – 0917 (47 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were mildly negative. The spike started on the PP Pivot, then crossed the 50 SMA and eclipsed the S1 Pivot to bottom for 16 ticks on the :35 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 0.012171 with 2 ticks of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with 8 ticks on the :32 bar as it crossed the S1 Pivot. After trickling down for a few more ticks, the reversal retreated up to the 50 SMA for 11 ticks in 5 min. Then after a failed attempt at a 2nd Peak, it reversed later for another 6 ticks to reach the 200 SMA in another 37 min.

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 10.25.2012

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May 232013
 

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 10_25_2012

10/25/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual: 2.0%
Previous revision: -0.5% to -2.1%
Regular Forecast: 7.1%
Regular Actual: 9.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -13.1%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.012476
1st Peak @ 0.012464 – 0831 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.012480 – 0833 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.012452 – 0935 (65 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.012469 – 1003 (93 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in positive overall. The more influential core reading came in 1.2% better than expected with a downward revision to the previous report. This correlated with a strong regular reading exceeding the forecast by a greater margin than the core difference. This resulted in a short move of 12 ticks that hit the S4 Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short with 1 tick of slippage at 0.012471. Then look to exit with a handful of ticks after it bounced off of the S4 pivot it is unlikely to attempt that again being a strong level of support. It quickly reversed for 16 ticks in only 2 bars back to the 50 SMA. Then it trended mildly lower, riding the 50 SMA to eventually seek a 2nd peak 1 hr after the report for another 12 ticks. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in about 30 min.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.15.2013

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May 212013
 

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5_15_2013

5/15/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: -0.6M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.62
1st Peak @ 92.30 – 1031 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 92.79 – 1034 (4 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.13 – 1044 (14 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 94.24 – 1217 (107 min)
211 ticks

Notes: Small draw in crude inventories when a small gain was expected, while gasoline saw a medium draw and distillates saw a medium draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit. With the small change in crude, and the large inventory, the gains in the cracks drove the short move of 32 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the S3 Mid. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 92.49 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 92.34 on the S3 Mid Pivot for 15 ticks. The :31 and :32 bars would have filled your order before it reversed for 49 ticks on the next 2 bars to eclipse the 50 SMA. After the initial reversal, it stepped down to a 2nd Peak of 17 more ticks 10 min after the reversal. Then it fanned upward for a strong reversal of 211 ticks in the next 90 min riding the 13 up until it surpassed the S1 Mid Pivot. It is unclear if the long reversal was due to the waning influence of the report or other market conditions.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.8.2013

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May 212013
 

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5_8_2013

5/8/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.1M
Actual: 0.2M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.16
1st Peak @ 96.36 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 95.81 – 1041 (11 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Little change in crude inventories when a small gain was expected, while gasoline saw a small draw and distillates saw a moderate gain. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit and reached a new record. This caused a long move of 20 ticks that eclipsed the 50 and 20 SMAs, and the R1 Pivot, peaking on the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 96.27 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it reverse and bounce between breakeven and 17 ticks in the red. Look to exit within 5 ticks of breakeven at or below the 50 SMA with a limit order. The :32 bar gave a few more ticks before the reversal began. In a volatile and choppy manner, it fell for 55 ticks in 11 min to eclipse the 200 SMA and OOD. After that it chopped sideways between the OOD and R1 Pivot.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.3.2013

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May 192013
 

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5_3_2013

5/3/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.1
Actual: 53.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 95.18
1st Peak @ 94.89 – 1003 (3 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 95.38 – 1012 (12 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 1 point. This caused a short spike of 29 ticks on 2 bars as it crossed the 100/50 SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 95.12 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 13 ticks at 94.99 on the R1 Pivot. After the initial peak it chopped sideways for 4 min, then reversed upward to get wrapped up in the rally caused by the positive Non Farm report from 90 min earlier. It found resistance at the 95.35 area, but was able to capture a few more ticks about 10 min after the 1st peak. After that it trended higher.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.15.2013

 Empire State Manufacturing Index  Comments Off on CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.15.2013
May 192013
 

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4_15_2013

4/15/2013 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 7.2
Actual: 3.1
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.07
1st Peak @ 90.00 – 0831 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 90.16 – 0831 (1 min)
-16 ticks

2nd peak @ 89.80 – 0832 (2 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of the forecast and disappointed the market. We saw an initial short move of 7 ticks, then a quick reversal of 16 ticks, followed by a 27 tick 2nd peak on the :32 bar. Since the market was strongly in a bullish rally for the 2.5 hrs before the report gaining about 200 ticks, it was a bit jittery near the top as it had just started to back off of the HOD. It bounced off of support at the 20 SMA and briefly popped up, before falling to the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 90.02 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped at 90.12 with 2 ticks of slippage. After the first few min, it chopped sideways unable to fall below the 20 SMA. Then it finally challenged the larger SMAs and fell about 30 min after the report. This was likely due to the divergence built up for a longer term correction, not the report.

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