Retail Sales | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 042016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’00
1st Peak @ 165’11 – 0830:12 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’04 – 0833 (3 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’17 – 0845 (15 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 164’28 – 0940 (70 min)
21 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’04 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 165’10 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’10 (just above the PP Pivot) or 165’12 (on the HOD) – move lower

Notes: With all the results bearish and the PPI also in agreement, we saw a nice stable long spike of 11 ticks that climbed and hovered in between the PP Pivot and HOD. Look to exit at 165’09 or 10 with the hovering. After a 7 tick reversal it climbed to a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 14 min to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 21 ticks in about an hour.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.15.2016

Retail Sales Comments Off

Apr 032016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_15_2016 ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_15_2016

3/15/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.2%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.5% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to -0.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 162’08
1st Peak @ 162’02 – 0830:00 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 162’17 – 0830:36 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 162’09 – 0830:54 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 162’19 – 0908 (38 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 162’03 – 0931 (61 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 162’05 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’06 – 1 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’30 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: It stabbed lower on the near matching-slightly bullish results with the core reading, but the previous revision was very bearish to give it a conflicting signal. The current reading gets first notice, then the revision, but normally the revision is small or the current reading is strongly biased so the revision is overlooked. So it would have filled short then reversed to a few ticks in the red and hovered.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016

Retail Sales Comments Off

Feb 272016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_12_2016 ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_12_2016

2/12/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 168’03
1st Peak @ 167’18 – 0830:30 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 167’24 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 167’16 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 158’01 – 0908 (38 min)
17 ticks

Expected Fill: 167’28 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks on fill / 1 tick on stop
Best Initial Exit: 168’02 – stopped for 6 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 167’18 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Should have been a great 2nd peak trade, but spoiled with initially instability as it reversed quickly and sharply after the initial fill to hit the stop. As the results were positive, you could have entered the market short again after the stop out at 167’26 where it hovered on the 100 SMA between 0830:06 and 0830:18 then captured about 7 ticks in 10 sec. Then 2nd peak achieved 2 more ticks then reversed 17 ticks in about 30 min.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 012014

Caption for 2/13:
2/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -0.1%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 132’27 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
Dull Reaction with only 2 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 132’24/23 (in the middle of SMAs & just below R2 Mid Pivot) / 132’19 (on R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’31 (on the R2 Pivot ) / 133’03 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. Surprising, all readings were bearish, but the ZB failed to launch until the :32 bar. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. The reaction came late for no apparent reason, but resulted in a 5 tick upward spike on the :32 bar, eclipsing the R2 Pivot, followed by a 4 tick reversal to the 13 SMA on the :36 bar. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :37 bar. After that it reversed for 7 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA about 30 min later.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 282014

3/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.6%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 132’03 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 131’30 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 132’01 – 0830:32 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 131’26 – 0833 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’00 – 0849 (19 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 131’31 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 131’27 (in between the LOD and S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’07 (just below the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 132’11 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. Most of the news was positive with core retail sales and claims while the broader reading matched and we saw downward previous revisions. This caused a short move of 5 ticks in 15 sec that crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then backed off to hover between the fill point and +2 ticks. Upon noticing the lack of conflict in the news, look to exit with 1 tick of profit. After the :31 bar, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 2 bars to the S1 Pivot, then achieved a reversal of 6 ticks back to the 50 SMA in the next 16 min. After that it trickled lower for a double bottom, then reversed into a long rally after the opening bell for the US session.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.14.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 042014

4/14/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.8%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 0.7%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009822
1st Peak @ 0.009806 – 0831 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.009821 – 0903 (33 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was strong overall, with 0.2% and 0.3% deviations. This caused a healthy short reaction of 16 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and fell to cross all the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009817 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 8-10 ticks near the bottom when it hovered for 20 sec later in the bar. After that it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 32 min, crossing the 50 SMA and S2 Pivot. Then it traded sideways on the S2 Pivot before climbing again later.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 262014

5/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: +0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 1.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’12
1st Peak @ 135’24 – 0830:06 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 135’18 – 0834 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 135’27 – 0839 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 135’21 – 0847 (17 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report was very weak with 0.6% and 0.4 % margins, but was offset by strong previous revisions. This caused a stable long reaction of 12 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the R1 Pivot, and extended the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 135’21 with 6 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 1-2 ticks as it hovered near the top on 2 occasions. After a 6 tick reversal in 3 min, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 5 min to remain above the R2 Mid Pivot for about 5 min. With the large deviation on the report, waiting for a 2nd peak would be prudent to capture about 5 total ticks. After that it fell 6 ticks to the 20 SMA 8 min later.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/12/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 134’26 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 135’00 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’30 – 0830:12 (1 min)
)))-2 ticks

)))Pullback to 135’03 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 135’00 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 135’06 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 134’31 – 0839 (9 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 135’08 – 0900 (30 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 135’01 – 0914 (44 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’22 (on the S1 Pivot / LOD) / 134’18 (on the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 134’30 (just below the OOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 135’02 (on the HOD)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. All of the news was negative with core and regular retail sales falling 0.3% short of the forecast and claims exceeding the forecast while the previous revisions were large and bullish. This caused a long move of 6 ticks initially that crossed the OOD. This would have filled the inner short entry with 2 tick to spare, then backed off to hover near the fill point. Upon noticing the strong bias and lack of conflict in the news, look to exit near breakeven early in the :01 bar. After the initial seconds it continued to step higher in the next 30 min as it established a new high the then reversed for 7 ticks afterward.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/12/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 306K
Actual: 317K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009791 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009796 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009802 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009805 – 0834 (4 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009799 – 0848 (18 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009779 (on the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009771 (just above the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009801(just above the 200 SMA /S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009809 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in disappointing with 11K more jobs lost than the forecast coupled with a very disappointing Retail Sales report. This caused a relatively small 11 tick long spike that started on the S2 Mid Pivot, then rose to cross the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot then backed off 6 ticks in 11 sec. Depending on the placement of the tiers, this may have filled your inner tier. 10-12 ticks would have been a range of 0.009801 to 0.009803. I chose 0.009801 due to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot being strong resistance. Look to exit with about 3-4 ticks when it hovered with the news being consistent and strongly biased. It climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 3 min, then fell 6 ticks in the next 14 min.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.15.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 082014

7/15/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.3% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 136’29
1st Peak @ 137’04 – 0830:03 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 136’28 – 0830:26 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Pullback to 137’01 – 0834 (4 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 136’21 – 0855 (25 min)
12 ticks

Notes: This report was mistakenly listed as a bracket trade when it should have been a Trap Trade with the Empire State Manufacturing Index double booked. The Retail sales came in under the forecast by 0.1% on the core reading and 0.4% on the regular reading while the Empire State came in 8.4 pts above the forecast to offset. This caused a shortly sustained long reaction of 7 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the PP/R1 Pivots, then fell after 23 sec back to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 137’01 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with a 4 tick loss with no slippage. After the reversal, it pulled back for 5 ticks in 3 min, crossing the 100 SMA. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 21 min to the S2 Mid Pivot while extending the LOD. Even with the stop out on the initial reaction, it would have been a good play to enter a short trade on the 100 SMA at 137’00 when it hovered there for about 5 min using a stop of 2-3 ticks above the 200 SMA / PP Pivot. This would have allowed about 8 ticks to be captured in 10 min as it reached the S1 Pivot.

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