Retail Sales | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.14.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 164’01
1st Peak @ 164’21 – 0830:04 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 164’15 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 165’14 – 0920 (50 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 165’00 – 0951 (81 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was weak, falling short of the forecasts by 0.3% and 0.2% margins with modest upward previous revisions. PPI also released at the same time and was mildly disappointing. This caused a long spike for 20 ticks immediately that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and reach the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it hovered in the area near the top for 9 sec before backing off. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 164’05 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it continue to climb. This would have allowed an exit with the hovering around 164’18 with 13 ticks. After a 6 tick reversal on the next bar, it continued to step higher about 4 times to reach the R4 Mid Pivot on the final peak for 25 more ticks in 48 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 31 min to the R3 Pivot.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 5.13.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 162015

5/13/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.3% to 0.7%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 154’07
1st Peak @ 154’28 – 0832:01 (3 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 154’24 – 0832:20 (3 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 155’02 – 0837 (7 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 153’31 – 0917 (47 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report was weak, falling short of the forecasts by 0.3% and 0.3% margins with moderate upward previous revisions. Import Prices also released at the same time and was disappointing. This caused a long spike for 13 ticks immediately and another 8 ticks following that started on the 200 SMA and rose to cross the 100/50 SMAs, the R1 Pivot, and the HOD. It would have kept slowly stepping up without reversing until it peaked for 21 total ticks at 154’28 at the start of the :33 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 154’11 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it continue to climb. This would have allowed an exit with up to 15 ticks if you were patient. After a 4 tick reversal in several seconds, it continued to climb for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 35 ticks in 40 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.11.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 212015

6/11/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 1.0%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 148’08
1st Peak @ 148’00 – 0830:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 148’09 – 0830:02 (1 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 147’30 – 0830:16 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 149’03 – 0833 (3 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 148’22 – 0836 (6 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 149’13 – 0852 (22 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 148’28 – 0915 (45 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Unemployment claims and Import Prices. All the news was bullish except for the claims (matching). The reaction defied logic as it fell, but quickly reversed and ended up long in the follow through. This caused a 8 tick short spike that reversed 9 ticks in the next sec then fell again after a few sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 148’03 with 2 ticks of slippage, then your stop would have been hit for a 5 tick loss 1 sec later. After the initial short move and instability, it reversed long for 37 ticks in 2 min to cross the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 13 ticks in 3 min before reversing 23 ticks in 16 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 23 min to the R2 Pivot.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.14.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 292015

7/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 1.0%
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 149’03
1st Peak @ 149’21 – 0830:03 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 149’10 – 0830:44 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 149’17 – 0834 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 149’06 – 0836 (6 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 149’20 – 0855 (25 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 149’00 – 0919 (49 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Import Prices. All the news was bearish. This caused an 18 tick long spike that started on the PP Pivot and climbed to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD in 3 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 149’08 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hover for about 7 sec within 3 ticks of the top, so look to exit there with about 10 ticks. It reversed 11 ticks in 40 sec before pulling back 7 ticks to the old HOD position. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 6 min to the 13 SMA before pulling back 14 ticks in 19 min for a near double top. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 24 min to the 200 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.13.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/13/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.5% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.0%
SPIKE/ REVERSE…DULL EXIT
Started @ 158’06
1st Peak @ 158’15 – 0830:03 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 158’00 – 0830:30 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 158’06 – 0831:37 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 157’24 – 0836 (6 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Import Prices. All the news was matching or nearly matching leaving the previous bullish revisions the only driver on the news to cause choppy moves. This caused a 9 tick long spike that started on the OOD / S1 Pivot and climbed then quickly fell back to the fill point. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 158’09 with no slippage. This is where a profit target would have been prudent as a setting of 5 or less would have filled. Otherwise, recognize the quick reversal and matching conditions and manually exit near breakeven up for 8 sec after the report. Then it slowly trickled lower for a reversal of 15 ticks in 30 sec to the 200 SMA. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min to the OOD / S1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 4 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it continued to chop with 8-10 tick swings every 5 min or so for the next hour.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9.15.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 142015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9_15_2015

9/15/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.7%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 155’00
1st Peak @ 155’10 – 0830:02 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 155’00 – 0830:06 (1 min)
10 ticks

Continued Reversal to 154’24 – 0830:57 (1 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 155’02 – 0834 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 153’11 – 1052 (142 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’05 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 155’00 – 5 ticks loss (stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 155’10 (above the HOD)

Notes: Indecisive for no apparent reason. Reaction should have sustained long, but had a large short long term reversal for over 2 hrs that used the 20 and 50 SMAs for dynamic resistance.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.14.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 142015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10_14_2015

10/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: -0.3%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 158’08
1st Peak @ 158’24 – 0830:21 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 158’19 – 0831:23 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 158’31 – 0837 (7 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 158’22 – 0842 (12 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 159’00 – 0849 (19 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 158’07 – 0947 (77 min)
25 ticks

Expected Fill: 158’13 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 158’23 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 158’21 (above the HOD and R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Reversal after the 2nd peak fell to the 13 SMA, then climbed for a final peak allowing a perfect setup to trade the final peak.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 11.13.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 142015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 11_13_2015

11/13/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’31
1st Peak @ 153’13 – 0830:39 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 153’07 – 0831:15 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 153’16 – 0833 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 152’29 – 0910 (40 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 153’03 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 153’12 – 9 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 153’12 (above the HOD and R1 Pivot)

Notes: It initially struggled a bit to cross the 100/200 SMAs, but after 30 sec it breached the HOD / R1 Pivot.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12.11.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 142015

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 12_11_2015

12/11/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 155’30
1st Peak @ 155’21 – 0830:04 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 155’27 – 0830:07 (1 min)
6 ticks

Hovering between 155’25 and 155’27 to 0831:17 (2 min)

Continued Reversal to 155’31 – 0831:40 (2 min)
10 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’26 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 155’25 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 155’22 (below the 200 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot) – move up after the hovering.

Notes: Strange muted and unsustained reaction…possibly due to lighter volume on a December Friday.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.15.2016

Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 192016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_15_2016

1/15/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 158’26
1st Peak @ 159’12 – 0830:42 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 159’04 – 0836 (6 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 159’24 – 0852 (22 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 158’30 – 0909 (39 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 158’30 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 159’11 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 159’11 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Strongly bearish report provided a nice large 1st peak. Expect a 2nd peak and buy the dip at 0836.

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