10/13/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -46.0B
Actual: -45.6B
Previous Revision: -0.8B to -45.6B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 85.03
1st Peak @ 84.64 – 0233 (3 min)
39 ticks

Retrace to 85.01 – 0239 – 0242 (9-12 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report slightly exceeded forecast, but previous report revised mildly downward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (matched forecast at 404K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. The long tail on the 0231 candle is typical of the unemployment report.

8/11/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -47.9B
Actual: -53.1B
Previous Revision: -0.6B to -50.8B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 82.45
1st Peak @ 82.80 – 0231 (1 min)
35 ticks

Retrace to 81.89 – 0234 (4 min)
91 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast, and previous report revised mildly downward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (mildly exceeding forecast at 395K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. The long tails on the 0231 and 0232 candles are typical of the unemployment report.