9/5/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 226K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 142K
Previous Revision: +3K to 212K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1990.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1994.75 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 1990.00 – 0830:20 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Pullback to 1996.25 – 0831:22 (2 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 1991.50 – 0831:51 (2 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1999.25 – 0843 (13 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1991.00 – 0902 (32 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1984.00 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 1980.00 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1997.00 (just below the OOD) / 1999.75 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Strongly negative report with 84K less jobs added than the forecast, a negligible upward revision to the previous report and a match on the U-3 rate of 6.1%. We saw a long spike of only 18 ticks in the first 7 sec then choppy trading between the peak and just above the 200 SMA for a few sec before a reversal to the origin in the next 10 sec. Then it rebounded for 25 ticks in the next minute. This would have fallen about 8-9 ticks short of the inner short order and it did not offer a great opportunity to manually move the order in closer. However we see the trend after the first 2 bars is to swing between the 1990 – 1991 area and the area around 1996 – 1998 so buying at the bottom and selling at the top each time would have been safe and profitable. The 0843 bar is a bearish indicator (shooting star) and a great short opportunity. It kept swinging until the final reversal ended at 1042, then rallied until the close as the results were interpreted to keep the FED in a dovish mood.

11/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 235K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 214K
Previous Revision: +8K to 256K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 2029.00 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2026.25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 2033.50 – 0831:33 (2 min)
)))29 ticks
————
Pullback to 2028.75 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 2032.75 – 0847 (17 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2023.75 – 0912 (42 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2022.50 (on the PP Pivot) / 2019.00 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 2034.75 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 2039.50 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Mixed report with 21K less jobs added than the forecast, a small upward revision to the previous report and an improvement of 0.1% on the U-3 rate to 5.8%. We saw a small short spike of only 11 ticks in the first 1 sec to nearly reach the LOD then a reversal of 29 ticks in the next 90 sec that crossed the HOD. This would have fallen short of the inner long order, and not allowed a manual entry as it rebounded quickly. After the reversal, it pulled back 19 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA before reversing 16 ticks in 13 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in the next 25 min as it extended the LOD and kept stepping lower for slightly lower lows over the next 2 hrs.

1/9/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 241K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 252K
Previous Revision: +32K to 353K
Rate Forecast: 5.7%
Rate Actual: 5.6%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2046.50 – shift to 2047.75 (up 5 ticks)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2051.75 – 0830:26 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 2048.75 – 0830:35 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 2060.00 – 0833 (3 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 2054.00 – 0835 (5 min)
24 ticks

Final Peak @ 2062.00 – 0840 (10 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 2054.50 – 0853 (23 min)
30 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2041.50 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 20337.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 2068.25 (just below the LOD) / 2057.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Strong report with 11K more jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report and an improvement on the U-3 rate of 0.1% to 5.6%. We saw a small long spike of only 16 ticks in the first 26 sec to eclipse the 200 SMA and PP Pivot and hover. This would have fallen short of the inner short order, but the hovering for about 12 sec would have allowed a manual shift to about 2051.00 that would have filled. This would have allowed 8-10 ticks to be captured where it hovered above the 100 SMA. After that it climbed again for a 2nd peak of 33 more ticks in 2 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD before reversing 24 ticks in 2 min to the OOD. Then it climbed for a final peak of 8 more ticks in 5 min before reversing 30 ticks in 13 min to the OOD. As the equity indexes do not like large quick moves, it reversed completely about an hour after the report back to the LOD.

3/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 240K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 295K
Previous Revision: -18K to 239K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.5%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (DOWNWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 2099.75 (on the OOD)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span – 2100.00 to 2101.25 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
1st Peak @ 2103.50 – 0832:09 (3 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 2097.00 – 0832:30 (3 min)
26 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2086.00 – 0928 (58 min)
70 ticks

Pullback to 2094.25 – 1002 (92 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2093.75 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 2089.50 (just above the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 2106.00 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 2109.00 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Strong report with 55K more jobs added than the forecast, a moderate downward revision to the previous report along with a 0.1% drop in the U-3 rate of 0.1% to 5.5%. We saw almost no reaction on the :31 bar which is very odd with the strong results. It almost appears that the report was released 2 min late, but other markets reacted at the normal time. This would have been an easy cancel on the ES. On the :33 bar, it spiked long 15 ticks in 9 sec to the HOD before reversing 26 ticks in 21 sec to the LOD. Then it ended up falling in a downward fan for a total of 70 ticks from the origin in about an hour as it crossed the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 33 ticks in 34 min to the S1 Pivot.

6/5/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 222K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 280K
Previous Revision: -2K to 221K
Rate Forecast: 5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.5%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2094.50 (on the 100 SMA)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2088.75 – 0830:17 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 2095.50 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))27 ticks

)))Pullback to 2086.25 – 0831:20 (2 min)
)))-37 ticks
————
Reversal to 2096.75 – 0836 (6 min)
42 ticks

Pullback to 2089.25 – 0840 (10 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 2095.00 – 0845 (15 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2087.75 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 2084.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 2101.75 (just below the PP Pivot) / 2104.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Strong report with 58K more jobs added than the forecast, a negligible revision to the previous report along with a increase in the U-3 rate that was attributed to more people looking for work. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks in 17 sec that would have barely missed the inner long tier by 4-5 ticks. As it hovered in a range of 5 ticks for 5 sec, if you were quick you could have moved the tier up about 6 ticks and seen the reversal of 27 ticks give you a nice profit of up to 20 or so ticks with an exit above the 100 SMA. Then it continued to swing up and down about every 4-5 min to allow plenty of opportunities to “sell the rips and buy the dips”.