9/4/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 215K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 173K
Previous Revision: +30K to 231K
Rate Forecast: 5.2%
Rate Actual: 5.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1930.75 – shift down 6 ticks to 1929.25 (on the 50 SMA)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Whipsaw between 1926.50 and 1932.00 – 0830:12 (1 min)
22 tick span (+11 / -11 ticks)

)))1st Peak @ 1923.75 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 1936.00 – 0832:51 (3 min)
)))49 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1921.00 – 0839 (9 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1928.50 – 0846 (16 min)
30 ticks

Final Peak @ 1910.50 – 0854 (24 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 1930.25 – 0944 (74 min)
79 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1924.25 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1919.25 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1934.50 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 1939.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Mixed report with 42K less jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report along with a 0.1% improvement in the U-3 rate attributed to more people departing the labor force. This caused an immediate whipsaw spanning 22 ticks. Then it fell for the 1st peak of 22 ticks in 28 sec before reversing. This would have filled the shifted inner long entry perfectly then reversed to allow up to 45+ ticks to be captured in about 2.5 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 6 min as it eclipsed the S2 Pivot / LOD before reversing 30 ticks in 7 min to the 3 Major SMAs and S2 Mid Pivot. After that it fell for a final peak of 42 more ticks in 8 min before reversing 79 ticks in 50 min.

11/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 181K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 271K
Previous Revision: -5K to 137K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 2095.25 – shift 4 ticks lower to 2094.25
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2082.00 – 0831:10 (2 min)
)))-49 ticks

)))Reversal to 2099.00 – 0833:48 (4 min)
)))68 ticks
————
Pullback to 2082.75 – 0858 (28 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 2096.25 – 0937 (67 min)
54 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2077.50 – 1007 (97 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 2091.50 – 1047 (137 min)
56 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2088.75 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 2084.00 (just below the S1Pivot)
Short entries – 2099.25 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD) / 2104.00 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 2088.75 and 2084.00 (both long tiers)
Best Initial Exit: 2098.75 – 99 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2094.25 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice outer tier trap trade good for up to nearly 100 ticks with patience. It continued to cycle allowing several other trades for the next 2.5 hrs.

1/8/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 203K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 292K
Previous Revision: +27K to 298K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
HEAD FAKE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 155’17
Head Fake to 155’23 – 0830:00
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 154’14 – 0830:02 (1 Min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 155’10 – 0830:57 (1 Min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 155’01 – 0834 (4 min)
9 ticks

Reversal t o155’18 – 0845 (15 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 155’05 – 0858 (28 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 155’23 – 0908 (38 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 155’20 (long) then stopped/reversed @155’08
Slippage: 0 ticks / 7 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 154’15 – net 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 154’23 and 154’10 (just below the S2 Mid and S2 Pivots)

Notes: Head Fake for 6 ticks before the true spike of 35 ticks. This is why we use the “Reverse if stopped” feature on this report. After stopped for a 12 tick loss (5 tick stop + 7 tick slippage, you would have been able to make up to 25 ticks on the following short move. After that it reversed strongly (as China and oil still overshadowed a strong report).

2/5/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 189K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 151K
Previous Revision: -30K to 262K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (PROFITABLE WITH SETTINGS)
Started @ 163’04
Whipsaw between 163’16 and 162’25 – 0830:03
23 ticks

1st Peak @ 162’21 – 0830:41 (1 Min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 163’22 – 0836 (6 Min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’14 – 0849 (19 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 163’01 – 0853 (23 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’05 – 0858 (28 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 162’30 – 0952 (82 min)
25 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’12 (long) then stopped/reversed @163’07
Slippage: 4 ticks / 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’22 – net 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 162’22 and 162’13 (just below the PP and S1 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Initially Indecisive with a long then short whipsaw due to the conflict of the disappointing jobs, but drop in the rate. Then it fell to settle lower as the :31 bar progressed. This is why we use the “Reverse if stopped” feature on this report. After stopped for a 5 tick loss (5 tick stop + 0 tick slippage, you would have been able to make up to 17 ticks on the following short move for a net of 12 ticks with the ideal placement of the profit target just below the PP Pivot. It also hovered in that area to offer a cue to exit. Then as the initial reaction was indecisive, we saw several choppy swings as it eventually fell lower.

2/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 185K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 113K
Previous Revision: +1K to 75K
Rate Forecast: 6.7%
Rate Actual: 6.6%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’31
Premature spike @ 132’12 – 0830:59 (0 min)
19 ticks

1st Peak @ 134’02 – 0832 (2 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 0930 (60 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Disappointing report showing 72K less jobs created than expected, a negligible previous upward revision of 1K jobs, and a 0.1% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate as retailers and government agencies cut payrolls, while construction and manufacturing grew. This caused a premature short move of 19 ticks at 59 sec that promptly reversed after the about 2 sec. It fell to cross the S2 Pivot, then reversed to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot for 54 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 132’19 with abnormally high 8 ticks of slippage, then been stopped at about 132’26 with variable slippage added to the 5 tick loss between 0 and 5 ticks depending upon broker, feed, and VPS. After the peak, it reversed steadily for 37 ticks in the next hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it bounced off of the low and trended slightly higher, but unable to break through the 133’19 area.